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No more second chances. No more margin for error. No more possibilities to use losses as teachable moments. No more “Get ’em next time!” speeches. The Clemson Tigers have been backed into a corner. This is the fight of their season, the fight for their NCAA Tournament existence.
The reality cannot be any clearer for Brad Brownell and his team entering the final few days of February and the first weekend of March: If it wins each of its next two games this week at Pittsburgh and at home against North Carolina, it can make the NCAA Tournament.
If it gets swept in these two games, its at-large candidacy will be dead, or at least on its very last legs with little hope of revival.
If it beats Pitt but loses to UNC, that won’t be good enough to get in, and winning the next four games — at Notre Dame, home versus Syracuse, and then two wins in the ACC Tournament — would be needed for the Tigers to go Dancing again.
The only scenario which doesn’t carry a lot of clarity for the Tigers this week is a loss to Pitt and a win over Carolina. That would be confusing, but it would also be better than a win over Pitt and a loss to the Tar Heels.
What is obvious: Clemson shouldn’t have any desire to see if it will follow that path. Losing in Pittsburgh is not recommended.
People always ask me — and anyone else who follows college basketball fairly closely — at this time of year: “Will Team A get in with this specific conference record?”
Within certain parameters, a specific conference record can be an indicator of whether a team will make the NCAA Tournament. For instance, a record which is six games under .500 won’t get in. That simply won’t happen. However, once a team gets to four games under .500, it can get in. Just look at Oklahoma, which is currently 5-9 in the Big 12 (heading into Monday night’s game against Iowa State) but is in decent shape to get an NCAA bid because of a solid non-conference profile with sneaky-good wins against Wofford and Dayton plus B-minus-type wins against Florida and Creighton. There are no high-end wins there, but a lot of non-cupcake victories which represent a resume boost. If Oklahoma finishes 7-11 in the Big 12 and wins one Big 12 Tournament game, it should be in.
Many people won’t like it, and to be sure, I won’t like it either if a team such as Furman or UNC-Greensboro gets the shaft so that Oklahoma gets a 10 seed. Nevertheless, in terms of bracketology, Oklahoma is currently above the bubble cut line and would have to lose three or four games at this point to miss the field.
It’s not like that for Clemson, or to be more precise, it might not be like that for Clemson.
Will the Tigers get in if they finish 8-10 in the ACC? The best answer isn’t yes or no. The best answer is: “What KIND of 8-10 record?”
Is it an 8-10 record with wins over North Carolina and Syracuse, or one with low-value wins over Notre Dame and Pitt? As said above, Clemson shouldn’t try to do things the unconventional way by losing to Notre Dame and Pittsburgh, but simply for the sake of argument, it WOULD be better for Clemson if an 8-10 ACC record was the product of wins against UNC and Syracuse, and losses to the Irish and Panthers, instead of losses to Carolina and Cuse, and wins over Notre Dame and Pitt.
The committee needs to see more meat on the bones of Clemson’s resume. Five of Clemson’s six ACC wins have been against the bottom of the league: two against Georgia Tech, one each against Pitt, Wake Forest, and Boston College. A quality win at South Carolina and a strong win versus Lipscomb in non-conference play won’t be enough to get that ACC profile into the Dance if Clemson finishes 8-10 in the ACC without a win over North Carolina. An 8-10 with an upset of the Tar Heels will be better than an 8-10 without a victory over North Carolina.
This is why conference-record-based questions are often (though not always) inadequate at this time of year.
Let’s go back to the start: 2-0 this week gives Clemson a real chance. 0-2 torches this team’s hopes. 1-1 without a victory over UNC won’t be good enough and would need to be followed by four wins (at least three if there is any wiggle room for debate).
Your move, Tigers. Let’s see whatcha got this week.
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