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Feb
03
2018

Chop’s Takes: Boston College 2018 football schedule.

By the Numbers:

Boston College returns the following, according to SB Nation’s Bill Connelly ( ):

  • Percentage of Offense Returning: 81% (23rd in FBS)
  • Percentage of Defense Returning: 65% (61st in FBS)
  • Percentage of Total Returning: 73% (31st in FBS)
  • Head Coach: Steve Addazio (31-33 at Boston College, 44-44 All Time)

Trust the Process:

I’ll be using a standard format across all Chop’s Takes:

  1. I’ll take a look at the above returning production (keeping in mind the evaluation of talent applicable to each ACC Program) and compare to each team they face on their schedule.
  2. I’ll look at the opponent faced the week before, that game’s final score, and days passed before the current game being evaluated.
  3. I’ll take a look at the opponent the ACC team faces after the present game, considering look-ahead games and rivalries, and days separating that game from the present.
  4. I’ll weigh advantages of home versus away games for each game.
  5. Where possible, I’ll take into consideration potential weather considerations (not Hurricanes or other natural disasters but rather seasonal conditions).

Boston College 2018 Football Schedule:

UMass (September 1st, 2018 at home)

  • Percentage of Offense Returning: 87% (7th in FBS)
  • Percentage of Defense Returning: 55% (94th in FBS)
  • Percentage of Total Returning: 71% (39th in FBS)
  • Head Coach: Mark Whipple (61-62 at UMass, 133-95 All Time)
  • Previous Game: Duquesne
  • Following Game: GA Southern (9/8/18)
  • Rivalry Game

Prediction: Boston College WIN

While UMass is “technically” a rivalry game, considering the production of talent between these two programs, Boston College should be the heavy favorite. Boston College’s offensive production is both consistent and talented, they should easily best the returning production from UMass. I do not anticipate coaching to carry much weight here. The following week is not a look ahead for Boston College. While Boston College’s returning defense seemingly is less than the returning production on offense for UMass, I simply am having a hard time believing UMass can match the talent of what Boston College returns.

Holy Cross (September 8th, 2018 at home)

  • Head Coach: Bob Chesney
  • Previous Game: None
  • Following Game: Yale (9/15/18)

Prediction: Boston College WIN

I’ll keep this brief: ACC teams SHOULD win their FCS match-ups. Boston College is at home against a vastly inferior opponent. Boston College should win this. Next.

Wake Forest (September 13th, 2018 Thursday night away)

  • Percentage of Offense Returning: 74% (43rd in FBS)
  • Percentage of Defense Returning: 69% (49th in FBS)
  • Percentage of Total Returning: 72% (37th in FBS)
  • Head Coach: Dave Clawson (21-29 at Wake Forest, 111-109 All Time)
  • Previous Game: Towson (9/8/18)
  • Following Game: Notre Dame (9/22/18)

Prediction: Boston College LOSS

I don’t like this for Boston College. Both teams come off easy games the week before, Wake Forest has a 9 day break before facing Notre Dame (not easy but extended break helps). Talent-wise both programs are on par, with returning production on a similar level. While Boston College has a very slight edge here, Dave Clawson is proving to be a formidable coach in the ACC and is (in my opinion) a better head coach than Steve Addazio. This game is also a home game for Wake Forest, and is on a Thursday night.

Purdue (September 22nd, 2018 away)

  • Percentage of Offense Returning: 77% (32nd in FBS)
  • Percentage of Defense Returning: 41% (125th in FBS)
  • Percentage of Total Returning: 59% (96th in FBS)
  • Head Coach: Jeff Brohm (7-6 at Purdue, 39-30 All Time)
  • Previous Game: Missouri (9/15/18)
  • Following Game: Nebraska (9/29/18)

Prediction: Boston College WIN

After an upsetting loss at Wake Forest, Boston College will rebound against a porous defense at Purdue. The two programs recruit at the same level, and Boston College all-around returns significantly more talent to their team than Purdue. Purdue will also come off a tough game against Missouri, and follow that with a tough game at Nebraska against Scott Frost. Jeff Brohm is a good coach, but you can’t overlook the hurtles that Purdue must overcome in this match-up.

Temple (September 29th, 2018 at home)

  • Percentage of Offense Returning: 71% (53rd in FBS)
  • Percentage of Defense Returning: 61% (82nd in FBS)
  • Percentage of Total Returning: 66% (64th in FBS)
  • Head Coach: Geoff Collins (7-6 at Temple/All Time)
  • Previous Game: Maryland (9/15/18)/TBA
  • Following Game: TBA

Prediction: Boston College WIN

While not too difficult to project, not having the official AAC 2018 football schedule released does make it difficult to evaluate the previous and following games. That being said, the talent at Temple is not at the same level as the talent that Boston College will field. Additionally, Boston College returns more of it’s talent than Temple. The game is also at home for Boston College, presenting additional challenges to Temple. Finally, Geoff Collins is unproven as head coach, nullifying any advantages that could be drawn up here.

NC State (October 6th, 2018 away)

  • Percentage of Offense Returning: 70% (56th in FBS)
  • Percentage of Defense Returning: 35% (129th in FBS)
  • Percentage of Total Returning: 53% (112th in FBS)
  • Head Coach: Dave Doeren (34-30 at NC State, 57-34 All Time)
  • Previous Game: Virginia (9/29/18)
  • Following Game: Clemson (10/20/18) [Rivalry]

Prediction: Boston College WIN

I suppose you might say this is my first bold prediction. At NC State is always tough (ask Florida State), and NC State is sitting pretty with a bye before their big rivalry game versus Clemson. Dave Doeren (I believe) is a better coach than Steve Addazio. Yet the returning talent (both programs recruit at a similar level, with a slight edge to NC State) tells me that Boston College should run all over NC State with their porous defense. Simultaneously, Boston College’s defense should hold-up well against NC State’s offense. Boston College catches NC State looking ahead to their Clemson match-up.

Louisville (October 13th, 2018 at home)

  • Percentage of Offense Returning: 54% (102nd in FBS)
  • Percentage of Defense Returning: 38% (127th in FBS)
  • Percentage of Total Returning: 46% (124th in FBS)
  • Head Coach: Bobby Petrino (75-27 at Louisville, 120-58 All Time)
  • Previous Game: Georgia Tech (10/5/18 Friday Night)
  • Following Game: Wake Forest (10/27/18)

Prediction: Boston College WIN

Good Lord, Louisville! Bobby Petrino is an excellent coach, no questions asked. Louisville comes off an 8 day break, with a bye that follows. No look ahead game. The returning talent, however, leaves much to be desired. While Louisville recruits at a slightly higher level than Boston College, these numbers can’t be ignored. Losing Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson to the NFL only further solidifies what I believe to be a historically tough season for the Cardinals.

Miami (October 26th, 2018 Friday Night at home)

  • Percentage of Offense Returning: 68% (67th in FBS)
  • Percentage of Defense Returning: 70% (45th in FBS)
  • Percentage of Total Returning: 69% (48th in FBS)
  • Head Coach: Mark Richt (19-7 at Miami, 164-58 All Time)
  • Previous Game: Virginia (10/13/18)
  • Following Game: Duke (11/3/18)

Prediction: Boston College LOSS

Man, how I want to pull the trigger and call the Boston College upset over Miami. Friday night at home. Returning offensive talent allowing Boston College to remain competitive. Coming off a bye week (Miami is, too). But I can’t bring myself to do it. Mark Richt is a superior coach to Steve Addazio, the overall talent at Miami is better than what Boston College can bring in, and while Boston College is returning quite a bit of talent, Miami is returning just enough to enable veteran leaders to lead a front of talented fresh faces. I’m high on Miami in 2018, and while I felt that 2017 was a premature run, there is no doubt in my mind that Miami will remain competitive in the coming years for all teams in the ACC.

Virginia Tech (November 3rd, 2018 away)

  • Percentage of Offense Returning: 68% (65th in FBS)
  • Percentage of Defense Returning: 64% (67th in FBS)
  • Percentage of Total Returning: 66% (62nd in FBS)
  • Head Coach: Justin Fuente (19-8 at VT, 45-31 All Time)
  • Rivalry
  • Previous Game: Georgia Tech (10/25/18) [rivalry]
  • Following Game: Pittsburgh (11/10/18)

Prediction: Boston College LOSS

Another game where I’d like to pull the trigger and call Boston College upsetting Virginia Tech. After a hard fought game against Georgia Tech (another rivalry game), VT might be on the ropes. While the talent level is overall better at VT, with the Offensive return production likely being better than what Boston College’s defense can muster, the Eagle’s offense can likely throw punches against an exhausted VT defense. Justin Fuente is a better coach than Steve Addazio though, and the game is at home, with no look-ahead the following week. This being a rivalry game for both teams, they’ll likely both be inspired as well to compete. In the end, the coaching superiority and home advantage lead me to believe VT survives in Blacksburg.

Clemson (November 10th, 2018 at home)

  • Percentage of Offense Returning: 73% (45th in FBS)
  • Percentage of Defense Returning: 75% (32nd in FBS)
  • Percentage of Total Returning: 74% (28th in FBS)
  • Head Coach: Dabo Swinney (101-30 at Clemson/All Time)
  • Rivalry
  • Previous Game: Louisville (11/3/18)
  • Following Game: Duke (11/17/18)

Prediction: Boston College LOSS

Tough stretch for Boston College. I really don’t give them any shot in this game. Clemson looks to be (once again) a playoff-caliber team with their returning talent and superior talent. On all fronts, they are better than or equal to Boston College. Dabo Swinney is the superior coach. No rivalry games before or after, just this one. The sole advantage Boston College has is the home field, but here I doubt it’ll hold much weight.

Florida State (November 17th, 2018 away)

  • Percentage of Offense Returning: 74% (41st in FBS)
  • Percentage of Defense Returning: 46% (120th in FBS)
  • Percentage of Total Returning: 60% (93rd in FBS)
  • Head Coach: Willie Taggart (0-0 at FSU, 47-50 All Time)
  • Previous Game: Notre Dame (11/10/18)
  • Following Game: University of Florida (11/24/18) [rivalry]

Prediction: Boston College LOSS

This is a very interesting match-up, in my opinion (of course). Willie Taggart will be nearly finished with his first season as Florida State’s head coach after a dramatic and unfortunate 2017 run under the Jimbo Fisher regime. Florida State will be returning an abundance of talent at offense, however are lacking at defensive leadership. The talent on defense is absolutely there, and with a new defensive coordinator and coaching staff in general, it is difficult to project what exactly this Florida State team will look like. A few things stand out to me, the Notre Dame game before and Florida game after. This screams trap game for Florida State, and Boston College should capitalize. However, Boston College has also come off a brutal 3 game stretch where they would of faced Miami, and rivals VT and Clemson. I believe last year’s game was an aberration rather than indicative of this game, and just don’t see the Eagles beating an inspired FSU team at their home stadium. Sorry. Not sorry. Go Noles!

Syracuse (November 24th, 2018 at home)

  • Percentage of Offense Returning: 59% (86th in FBS)
  • Percentage of Defense Returning: 68% (53rd in FBS)
  • Percentage of Total Returning: 63% (75th in FBS)
  • Head Coach: Dino Babers (8-16 at Syracuse, 45-32 All Time)
  • Rivalry
  • Previous Game: Notre Dame (11/17/18)
  • Following Game: N/A

Prediction: Boston College WIN

After a brutal stretch, Boston College returns home and faces a team that is on a similar talent-level as themselves. Additionally, the returning talent on offense will allow Boston College to score on Syracuse efficiently. Additionally, I can see the Syracuse offense stalling against the Boston College defense at home. Dino and Addazio are, in my eyes, on the same level at this time. This is also a rivalry game, meaning both teams should show-up to play. Boston College holds their own and wins against Syracuse to go 7-5 in season, earning a bowl berth.

My Predicted 2018 Regular Season Record for Boston College: 7-5 (3-5 ACC)

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