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Feb
01
2018

ACC Bubble Analysis for February 1, 2018

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(1) Virginia (21-1) (10-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (9) Rhode Island, (87) Boston College, * (10) UNC, * (43) Syracuse, (68) Virginia Tech, (65) NC State, * (4) Duke,  * (5) Clemson, (19) Louisville

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia took the best shot Louisville could give and still won by double digits. The Hoos do have a couple of road tests this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/3 –  @Syracuse

2/7 –  @FSU

(4) Duke (19-3) (7-3) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (23) Michigan State, * (36) Texas, (74) Utah Valley, * (42) Florida, * (44) Florida State, * (20) Miami, (78) Notre Dame, (99) Furman

Bad Losses – None

Notes – I’d have Duke as a 1 seed right now, but some bracketologists are currently making a mistake having Kansas as the 4th 1 seed. Who would you take in that game? Duke has to win both their games this week, including arch-rival UNC is this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/3 – @St. Johns

2/8 – @UNC

(5) Clemson (18-4) (7-3) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  * (22) Ohio State, * (42) Florida, (62) South Carolina, (54) Louisiana, * (19) Louisville (87) Boston College, (65) NC State, (96) Hofstra, * (20) Miami, (78) Notre Dame, *(10) UNC, (95) Hofstra

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Clemson had handled the loss of star Donte Grantham by going 2-1 with their only loss at Virginia. A top 4 seed is definitely in play.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/3 – @Wake Forest

2/8 – Pittsburgh

(19) Louisville (16-6) (6-3) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (44) Florida State, (78) Notre Dame, (68) Virginia Tech, (87) Boston College, (92) Southern Illinois

Bad Losses – None

Notes – If Louisville wins all three of their games this week, we’ll start moving up them the seed line.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/3 – FSU

2/5 – Syracuse

2/8 – Georgia Tech

(10) North Carolina (16-7) (5-5) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (22) Arkansas, * (32) Michigan,* (12) Tennessee, * (29) Ohio State, (73) Boston College, * (5) Clemson, (78) Notre Dame, (94) Stanford, (83) Bucknell

Bad Losses – (111) Wofford

Notes – The Tar Heels are slipping. They’ve lost 3 games in a row, and are being carried by a slew of strong non-conference wins. Beating Duke would turn that skid around big time. Pitt is a layup win.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/3 – Pittsburgh

2/8 – Duke

(20) Miami (16-5) (5-4) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (24) Middle Tennessee, * (44) Florida State, * (19) Louisville, (65) NC State

Bad Losses – (134) Georgia Tech

Notes – If Miami wants off the 8/9 line, they need to sweep their games this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/3 – @Virginia Tech

2/7 – Wake Forest

(44) Florida State (16-6) (5-5) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (42) Florida * (10) UNC, * (43) Syracuse, * (20) Miami, (68) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Oh Florida State you can’t be losing games to the likes of Wake Forest, because take a look at the week ahead…

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/3 – @Louisville

2/8 – Virginia

Bubble But In

(65) NC State (15-7) (5-4) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (16) Arizona, * (4) Duke, * (5) Clemson, * (10) UNC

Bad Losses – (138) Northern Iowa, (106) UNC-Greensboro

Notes – The Wolfpack are enjoying the week, but they need no worse than a split to stay in the field.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/3 – Notre Dame

2/7 – @Virginia Tech

(68) Virginia Tech (16-6) (5-4) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (49) Washington, * (10) UNC, (78) Notre Dame, (85) Ole Miss, (87) Boston College

Bad Losses – * (139) St. Louis

Notes – That was a solid win at Boston College this week. There a couple of quality teams this week, but the Hokies get them at home.

2/3 – Miami

2/7 – NC State

Bubble But Out 

(43) Syracuse (15-7) (4-5) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  * (31) Buffalo, (58) Maryland, (68) Virginia Tech (79) Toledo, (88) Connecticut, (87) Boston College

Bad Losses – (116) Wake Forest, (134) Georgia Tech

Notes – Oh that was a bad loss at Georgia Tech…  Syracuse better find a way to get at least 1 win over Virginia or Louisville this week, or it could very very difficult to make the big dance.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/3 – Virginia

2/5 – @Louisville

(78) Notre Dame (13-9)(3-6) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (26) Wichita State, * (43) Syracuse, (82) LSU, (65) NC State

Bad Losses – (119) Indiana, (134) Georgia Tech, (107) Ball State

Notes – Technically Notre Dame is still on the bubble, but barely. That’s what 6 straight losses will do for you. They have to find a way to win both of their games this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/3 – @NC State

2/6 – Boston College

(87) Boston College (13-9) (3-6) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (4) Duke, * (44) Florida State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – At one time BC was in position to make the NCAAs, but it’s starting to slip away. I recommend BC sweep their games this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/4 – Georgia Tech

2/6 – @Notre Dame

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(116) Wake Forest (9-13) (2-8) 

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins –  * (43) Syracuse, * (44) FSU

Bad Losses – * (268) Liberty, (170) Drake, (136) Georgia Southern

Notes – I told you last week that Wake Forest was reduced to the role spoiler. They put a big dent in FSU’s resume this week by beating them. Clemson needs to be ready when this visit Wake Forest this week.

2/3 – Clemson

2/7 – @Miami

(134) Georgia Tech (11-11) (4-5)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  * (20) Miami, (78) Notre Dame, (43) Syracuse

Bad Losses – * (259) Grambling, (111) Grambling

Notes – Georgia Tech nearly knocked off Clemson this past week, and beat Syracuse. They are good enough to cause problems for most teams on their home floor.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/4 – @Boston College

2/8 – @Louisville

(180) Pittsburgh (8-15) (0-10)

Last 10 – (0-10)

Good Wins –  (80) Santa Barbara

Bad Losses – * (212) Navy, (110) Penn State, (117) Montana, (134) Georgia Tech, (114) Oklahoma State

Notes – If you haven’t noticed, Pitt has played some competitive basketball in recent weeks. I guess that’s something, but add two more losses this week to their winless ACC record.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/3 – @UNC

2/8 – @Clemson

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