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Jan
28
2018

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 28, 2018

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(1) Virginia (20-1) (9-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (9) Rhode Island, (73) Boston College, * (11) UNC, * (30) Syracuse, (72) Virginia Tech, (62) NC State, (85) UNC-Greensboro, * (4) Duke,  * (6) Clemson

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia’s win at Duke may have proved it’s the country’s best team at the moment. The Hoos are for real, but you should have known that already.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/31 – Louisville

2/3 –  Syracuse

(4) Duke (18-3) (6-3) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (28) Michigan State, * (40) Texas, (75) Utah Valley, * (36) Florida, * (31) Florida State, * (16) Miami

Bad Losses – None

Notes – I’m leaving Duke as a #1 seed despite the loss to Virginia. Why? After Virginia, Villanova, and Purdue there is no clear cut 4th team. Duke is as good a choice as there is.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/29 – Notre Dame

2/3 – @St. Johns

(11) North Carolina (16-6) (5-4) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (22) Arkansas, * (38) Michigan,* (13) Tennessee, * (21) Ohio State, (73) Boston College, * (6) Clemson, (77) Notre Dame, (90) Stanford, (95) Bucknell

Bad Losses – (110) Wofford

Notes – The Tar Heels have lost two straight games, and that pushed them down the seed line. Beating Pitt this week is a given, but a loss at Clemson will drop UNC further.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/30 – @Clemson

2/3 – Pittsburgh

(6) Clemson (16-4) (5-3) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  * (21) Ohio State, * (36) Florida, (53) South Carolina, (58) Louisiana, * (20) Louisville (73) Boston College, (62) NC State, (96) Hofstra, * (16) Miami, (77) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Clemson has lost 3 of their last 5 games, and without Donte Grantham for the rest of the season the Tigers may be in a bit of trouble. Clemson needs to win 2 of their next 3 games or fall towards the dreaded 8/9 line.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/28 – @Georgia Tech

1/30 – UNC

2/3 – @Wake Forest

(20) Louisville (16-5) (6-2) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  * (31) Florida State, (77) Notre Dame, (72) Virginia Tech, (73) Boston College, (100) Southern Illinois

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville is definitely a NCAA team, but they need more quality wins to move higher than a 6 seed.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/31 – @Virginia

2/3 – FSU

(31) Florida State (16-5) (5-4) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (36) Florida * (11) UNC, * (30) Syracuse, * (16) Miami, (72) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Florida State has won 3 games in a row. That puts them in good NCAA position. A couple of tricky road games are this week. The Noles need at worst a split.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/31 – @Wake Forest

2/3 – @Louisville

(16) Miami (15-5) (4-4) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (99) Minnesota, * (27) Middle Tennessee, * (31) Florida State, * (20) Louisville, (62) NC State

Bad Losses – (140) Georgia Tech

Notes – Miami is safely in the field. A sweep this week will move them off the 8/9 line.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/31 – Pittsburgh

2/3 – @Virginia Tech

Bubble But In

(62) NC State (15-7) (5-4) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (14) Arizona, * (4) Duke, * (6) Clemson, * (11) UNC

Bad Losses – (135) Northern Iowa

Notes – The NCAA tournament selection committee loves roads wins and NC State got two of them this week – at Pitt and then a monster win at UNC. Kevin Keatts is doing a great first year job in Raleigh.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/3 – Notre Dame

(72) Virginia Tech (15-6) (4-4) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (50) Washington, * (11) UNC, (77) Notre Dame, (84) Ole Miss

Bad Losses – * (202) St. Louis

Notes – Virginia Tech’ has been waiting for a week like this. They beat UNC and went on the road to defeat Notre Dame to get back in the field. A split this week should keep them in.

1/31 – @Boston College

2/3 – Miami

(30) Syracuse (15-6) (4-4) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  * (25) Buffalo, (52) Maryland, (72) Virginia Tech (67) Toledo, (74) Connecticut, (73) Boston College

Bad Losses – (126) Wake Forest

Notes – It’s hard to know what to do with Syracuse. They have good computer numbers, and a decent record but only 1 top 50 RPI win against Buffalo which won’t hold up. If they could get a sweep this week, that would really help.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/31 – @Georgia Tech

2/3 – Virginia

Bubble But Out 

(77) Notre Dame (13-8)(3-5) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (23) Wichita State, * (30) Syracuse, (81) LSU, (62) NC State

Bad Losses – (107) Indiana, (137) Georgia Tech

Notes – 5 straight losses have dropped the Irish out the NCAAs this week. The problem is 3 of those have been at home. Notre Dame is really feeling the loss of Bonzi Colson. If they get swept this week, it might be just too much to overcome.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/29 – @Duke

2/3 – @NC State

(73) Boston College (13-8) (3-5) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (4) Duke, * (31) Florida State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Boston College is better, but not NCAA worthy at the moment. This is a must sweep week with Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech at home.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/31 – Virginia Tech

2/4 – Georgia Tech

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(126) Wake Forest (8-13) (1-8) 

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins –  * (30) Syracuse, (85) UNC-Greensboro

Bad Losses – * (265) Liberty, (158) Drake, (139) Georgia Southern

Notes – Wake Forest has been reduced to the role of spoiler for this year. The Deacs have lost 7 in a row.

1/31 – FSU

2/3 – Clemson

(140) Georgia Tech (10-10) (3-4)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  * (16) Miami, (77) Notre Dame, (97) Northwestern

Bad Losses – * (256) Grambling, (110) Grambling

Notes – Georgia Tech just went through a brutal stretch of games. If there’s one last gasp at making a NCAA run, they need to win their next 3 games.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/28 – Clemson

1/31 – Syracuse

2/4 – @Boston College

(180) Pittsburgh (8-14) (0-9)

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins –  (83) Santa Barbara

Bad Losses – * (221) Navy, (108) Penn State, (116) Montana, (140) Georgia Tech

Notes – Kevin Stallings has destroyed this program. They’ll be 0-11 in the ACC after this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/31 – @Miami

2/3 – @UNC

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