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Jan
17
2018

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 17, 2017

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(3) Virginia (16-1) (5-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (13) Rhode Island, (64) Boston College, (99) VCU, * (2) UNC, * (35) Syracuse, (79) Virginia Tech, (75) NC State, (88) UNC-Greensboro

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia continues to cruise along as the country’s best defensive team. On the road at Georgia Tech could be tricky.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/18 – @Georgia Tech

1/21 – @Wake Forest

1/23 – Clemson

(1) Duke (16-2) (4-2) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (31) Michigan State, * (49) Texas, (93) Utah Valley, * (43) Florida, * (45) Florida State, (96) Elon, (85) Portland State, * (25) Miami, (94) Furman

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Against Miami on the road, Duke again proved that they have a gear no other team in the country can match. It’s just finding that consistency…

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/20 – Pitt

1/23 – @Wake Forest

(2) North Carolina (15-4) (4-2) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (19) Arkansas, * (27) Michigan,* (12) Tennessee, * (23) Ohio State, (64) Boston College, * (9) Clemson, (57) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Tar Heels have won 3 games in row. If they continue this form, they can reach the 2 line next week with a sweep of their games next week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/20 – Georgia Tech

1/22 – @Virginia Tech

(9) Clemson (15-3) (4-2) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  * (23) Ohio State, * (43) Florida, * (47) South Carolina, (92) Louisiana, * (17) Louisville (64) Boston College, (75) NC State, (82) Hofstra, * (25) Miami

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Clemson has to continue to hold serve at home, because they’ve lost their last 2 games on the road.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/20 – Notre Dame

1/23 – @Virginia

(17) Louisville (14-4) (4-1) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  * (45) Florida State, (57) Notre Dame, (79) Virginia Tech, (86) Memphis

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville has quietly moved up with some recent good play especially with road wins at FSU and Notre Dame. They’ve become a real threat in the ACC.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/21 – Boston College

1/24 – @Miami

(25) Miami (13-4) (2-3) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (65) Minnesota, * (32) Middle Tennessee, * (45) Florida State

Bad Losses – (137) Georgia Tech

Notes – Miami is fast approaching the bubble after a winless week, and a suspect looking resume. Another winless week, could drop them out of the field.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/21 – @NC State

1/24 – Louisville

(45) Florida State (13-5) (2-4) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (43) Florida * (2) UNC, * (35) Syracuse

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Florida State is like Miami. There’s a lack of quality wins, and they just aren’t putting enough victories together. They are precariously close to the bubble.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/20 – @Virginia Tech

1/24 – Georgia Tech

Bubble But In

(57) Notre Dame (13-6) (3-3) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (18) Wichita State, * (35) Syracuse, (78) LSU, (75) NC State

Bad Losses – (107) Indiana, (137) Georgia Tech

Notes – The Irish are starting to really feel the loss of Bonzi Colson. They’ve lost 3 games in a row, and 2 straight home game. That lands the Irish on the bubble.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/20 – @Clemson

(64) Boston College (13-6) (3-3) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (1) Duke, * (45) Florida State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Boston College needed a sweep this past week, and they got it with wins over Dartmouth and FSU. It’s going to be a challenging week for BC with road games at Louisville and Syracuse. They’ll need a split to stay in next week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/21 – @Louisville

1/24 – @Syracuse

 

Bubble But Out 

(35) Syracuse (13-6) (2-4) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  * (28) Buffalo, (51) Maryland, (79) Virginia Tech (84) Toledo, (87) Connecticut

Bad Losses – (124) Wake Forest

Notes – Syracuse has good computer numbers, but when your only win in your last 5 games is a home win at Pittsburgh – that doesn’t help much. Boston College at home is a must win.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/24 – Boston College

(75) NC State (12-6) (2-3) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (20) Arizona, * (1) Duke, * (9) Clemson

Bad Losses – (129) Northern Iowa

Notes – If NC State can take care of business at home this week, and get a very winnable road game at Pitt – they’ll be back in the Big Dance.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/18 – Wake Forest

1/21 – Miami

1/24 – @Pittsburgh

 

(79) Virginia Tech (13-5) (2-3) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (53) Washington, (97) Radford

Bad Losses – * (202) St. Louis

Notes – Virginia Tech’s resume looks more like a NIT team. A sweep at home this week is recommended. At minimum the Hokies need a split.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/20 – FSU

1/22 – UNC

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(127) Wake Forest (8-9) (1-4) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (35) Syracuse

Bad Losses – * (252) Liberty, (145) Drake, (126) Georgia Southern

Notes – I don’t see a win among Wake Forest’s next 3 games. It’s going to be a long season for Danny Manning’s bunch.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/18 – @NC State

1/21 – UVA

1/23 – Duke

(137) Georgia Tech (10-7) (3-1)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (25) Miami, (57) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – * (289) Grambling

Notes – If Georgia Tech can steal a couple of wins out of the next the 3 games, that’s the bubble on the horizon. They have a shot to make a little noise this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/18 – Virginia

1/20 – @UNC

1/24 – @FSU

(162) Pittsburgh (8-11) (0-6)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins –  (68) Towson

Bad Losses – * (228) Navy, (130) Penn State, (123) Montana, (137) Georgia Tech

Notes – Pitt may not win an ACC game this year.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/20 – @Duke

1/24 – NC State

 

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