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Jan
02
2018

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 2, 2017

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(1) Duke (13-1) (1-1) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (27) Michigan State, (84) Portland State, * (45) Texas, (81) Utah Valley, (86) Florida, * (36) Florida State, (88) South Dakota, (78) Furman, (80) Elon

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke beat FSU 100-93, but this team still gives up a ton of points. They need to get better defensively if they are to reach their full potential. Watch the game at NC State. The Wolfpack would love to beat Duke.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/6 – @NC State

(5) North Carolina (12-2) (1-0) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (4) Arkansas, (82) Northern Iowa, * (47) Michigan,* (12) Tennessee, * (49) Ohio State, (95) Tulane

Bad Losses – (101) Wofford

Notes – That was a shaky win at home against Wake Forest. The Heels need to play much better with the games upcoming this week. A split would be nice.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/3 – @Florida State

1/6 – @Virginia

(15) Virginia (12-1) (1-0) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (24) Rhode Island, (66) Boston College, (94) VCU

Bad Losses – None

Notes – If Virginia wants to push for a top 2 seed, they need both games this week, but a split is acceptable. These are a couple of big ones.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/3 – @Virginia Tech

1/6 – North Carolina

(23) Miami (12-1) (1-0) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins –  * (53) Minnesota, * (33) Middle Tennessee

Bad Losses – None

Notes – We’ve been high on Miami all year. This week a game at reeling Georgia Tech is one they can’t overlook, and then they host Florida State.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/3 – @Georgia Tech

1/7 – Florida State

(14) Clemson (12-1) (1-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins –  * (49) Ohio State, (86) Florida, * (50) South Carolina, (83) Louisiana

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Clemson with each passing weeks looks like a legit NCAA team. They have to maintain the momentum. Boston College and Louisville are this week, and the Tigers need no worse than a split.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/3 – @Boston College

1/6 – Louisville

(36) Florida State (11-2) (0-1) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (86) Florida, (95) Tulane

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Florida State nearly stole one at Duke, and this week with UNC and Miami, they need to avoid an 0-3 ACC start.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/3 – UNC

1/7 – @Miami

(11) Syracuse (12-2) (1-0) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  * (40) Buffalo, (55) Maryland, (85) Oakland, (77) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Good week for Syracuse as they beat Eastern Michigan, and Virginia Tech. The Cuse get a week where they could really help their resume. There’s a winnable game at Wake Forest, and then a Notre Dame team with some real issues that I’ll tell you about.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/3 – @Wake Forest

1/6 – Notre Dame

(72) Notre Dame (11-3) (1-0) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (21) Wichita State

Bad Losses – (135) Indiana, (124) Ball State

Notes – Notre Dame suddenly has big problems with Bonzie Colson out for the next 2 months. That’s a big loss for the Irish.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/3 – NC State

1/6 – @Syracuse

Bubble But In

(39) Louisville (11-3) (1-0) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  None

Bad Losses – None

Notes – I’m keeping Louisville in barely. They did not look like a tournament team at all against Kentucky. If they don’t win at Clemson, I’ll drop them out of the field next week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/6 – @Clemson

(77) Virginia Tech (11-3) (0-1) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  (54) Washington, (89) Radford

Bad Losses – * (160) St. Louis

Notes – Virginia Tech could really use a sweep this week to stay in the field. Both games are at home.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/3 – Virginia

1/6 – Pitt

 

Bubble But Out 

(66) Boston College (10-4) (1-1)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (1) Duke

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Oh Boston College came so close to stealing a huge win at Virginia. I’ve moved them out of the field, at the moment. Just barely though… BC is not in a bad position, but don’t lose either game at home (Clemson or Wake Forest) this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/3 – Clemson

1/6 – Wake Forest

(144) NC State (10-4) (0-1) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (17) Arizona

Bad Losses – (131) UNC-Greensboro

Notes – NC State struggled at Clemson in an ugly loss. This week they can start making up for it. No worse than a split is required against Notre Dame and Duke.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/3 – @Notre Dame

1/6 – Duke

 

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

 

(139) Wake Forest (7-6) (0-1) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  None

Bad Losses – * (257) Liberty, * (161) Drake, (115) Georgia Southern

Notes – Wake Forest threw a scare into UNC, but couldn’t close the deal. Wake Forest has a couple of upsets coming, I’ve got a feeling.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/3 – Syracuse

1/6 – @Boston College

(150) Pittsburgh (8-7) (0-2)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  * (44) Santa Barbara, (65) Towson

Bad Losses – * (202) Navy, (125) Penn State, * (152) Montanta

Notes – Pittsburgh hosts Georgia Tech on 1/13. That may be the best chance either school has of winning an ACC game.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/6 – @Virginia Tech

(245) Georgia Tech (6-7) (0-1)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  (75) Northwestern

Bad Losses – (146) Wright State, (269) Grambling, (101) Wofford

Notes – It’s a total embarrassment that an ACC team has an RPI of 245, but there was a spark of good play at Notre Dame.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/3 – Miami

1/6 – Yale

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