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Dec
26
2017

ACC Bubble Analysis for December 26, 2017

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(1) Duke (12-1) (0-1) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (7) Michigan State, * (47) Portland State, * (44) Texas, (78) Utah Valley, (99) Florida, (96) South Dakota

Bad Losses – None

Notes – That 64 point win over Evansville was impressive.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/30 – Florida State

(3) North Carolina (11-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (11) Arkansas, * (32) Northern Iowa, * (36) Michigan,* (9) Tennessee, (59) Ohio State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Where did that Wofford loss at home come from? UNC has some nice wins, but that was a lack of focus and it got UNC burned.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/30 – Wake Forest

(25) Virginia (11-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (17) Rhode Island

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia has feasted on a schedule full of light-weights, but they are still off to a faster start than many expected.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/30 – Boston College

(30) Miami (11-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins –  * (50) Minnesota, * (37) Middle Tennessee

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The New Mexico State loss was surprising. This is a good team, but I’m just not sure how good.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/30 – @Pitt

(40) Florida State (11-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (99) Florida

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Florida State enters ACC conference play without much on their resume, but I think Leonard Hamilton has got himself a pretty strong team.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/30 – @Duke

(20) Clemson (11-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins –  (59) Ohio State, (99) Florida, (83) Hofstra, * (41) South Carolina

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Clemson couldn’t have asked for a better pre-conference record. That included some solid wins too. If they hover around .500 in the ACC they’ll make the big dance. Don’t lose to NC State at home this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/30 – NC State

(86) Notre Dame (10-3) (0-0) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (22) Wichita State

Bad Losses – (121) Indiana

Notes – Notre Dame won their two games this past week, and gets an easy ACC opener with Georgia Tech at home.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/30 – Georgia Tech

Bubble But In

(17) Syracuse (10-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  * (42) Buffalo, (69) Maryland, (87) Oakland, (97) Connecticut

Bad Losses – None

Notes – St. Bonaventure at home? UNC wasn’t the only ACC team with a head scratching OOC home loss.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/27 – Eastern Michigan

12/31 – Virginia Tech

(33) Louisville (10-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  None

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville has good computer numbers, but what they need are quality wins. They get an opportunity with a game at Kentucky this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/29 – @Kentucky

1/2 – Pittsburgh

(75) Virginia Tech (10-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  (68) Washington, (98) Radford

Bad Losses – * (155) St. Louis

Notes – Virginia Tech has the look of a NCAA team, but the resume needs more. The loser of VT/Syracuse is probably out of the field next week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/28 – North Carolina A&T

12/31 – @Syracuse

(79) Boston College (10-3) (1-0) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (1) Duke

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Oh if BC could steal one at Virginia this week, they would be off the bubble.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/30 – @Virginia

Bubble But Out 

(149) NC State (10-3) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  * (21) Arizona

Bad Losses – (145) UNC-Greensboro

Notes – A win at Clemson this week, and I may put NC State into the field.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/30 – @Clemson

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(161) Wake Forest (7-5) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  (83) UNC-Greensboro

Bad Losses – * (224) Liberty, * (239) Drake

Notes – Wake Forest got routed at home by Tennessee. The Deacs needed that one. They’ll be battling Georgia Tech and Pitt for the bottom of the ACC.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/30 – @UNC

(156) Pittsburgh (8-5) (0-0)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  * (45) Santa Barbara, (53) Towsen

Bad Losses – * (180) Navy, (111) Penn State, * (173) Montanta

Notes – Pittsburgh has suddenly won 3 games in row. Could they throw a scare into Miami this week?

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/30 – Miami

1/2 – @Louisville

(240) Georgia Tech (5-6) (0-0)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (89) Northwestern

Bad Losses – (143) Wright State, (231) Grambling

Notes – It’s a wrap on Georgia Tech’s season. Even Josh Okogie’s return isn’t helping – no defense, no chemistry. Josh Pastner has his work cut out to coax more than 3 or 4 ACC wins out of this bunch.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/27 – Coppin State

12/22 – @Notre Dame

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