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Dec
18
2017

ACC Bubble Analysis for December 19, 2017

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(1) Duke (11-1) (0-1) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (3) Michigan State, (70) Portland State, (65) Texas, (88) Utah Valley, (57) Florida, (92) South Dakota, (86) Elon

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke didn’t play any games this past week. They hold on to a #1 seed, but are barely holding off their biggest rival North Carolina.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/20 – Evansville

(2) North Carolina (10-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (8) Arkansas, * (25) Northern Iowa, * (28) Michigan,* (16) Tennessee

Bad Losses – None

Notes – North Carolina went on the road and beat a quality Tennessee team. That was a really strong win. Their only loss might be to the best team in the country in Michigan State.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/20 – Wofford

12/23 – Ohio State

(36) Miami (9-0) (0-0) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (9-0)

Good Wins –  * (43) Minnesota, (64) LaSalle

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Canes were sluggish against George Washington, but they remain undefeated.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/23 – @Hawaii

(15) Virginia (9-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (21) Rhode Island, (83) UNC-Greensboro, (84) Wisconsin

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia is again one of the best defensive teams in the country.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/22 – Hampton

(39) Florida State (9-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (57) Florida

Bad Losses – None

Notes – I wouldn’t get too concerned about the FSU’s loss to Oklahoma State. This is still a very good team, but that loss keeps out of being of top 4 seed.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/21 – Southern Miss

(13) Syracuse (9-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins –  (78) Maryland

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Syracuse got a decent win a Georgetown, but there isn’t much on the resume. The Cuse can’t afford to lose any of their OOC games.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/19 – Buffalo

12/22 – St. Bonaventure

(33) Clemson (9-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (0-0)

Good Wins –  *(47) Ohio State, (57) Florida, (73) Hofstra

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Brad Brownell has got something working at Clemson. That win over Florida was huge. Win both games this week, Clemson stays solidly in the field.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/19 – South Carolina

12/22 – Louisiana

Bubble But In

(97) Notre Dame (8-3) (0-0) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (22) Wichita State

Bad Losses – (121) Indiana

Notes – The Irish have lost 3 of their last 5 games, and they getting precariously close to the bubble.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/19 – Dartmouth

12/21 – SE Louisiana

(66) Louisville (8-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  None

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville stays in the field with a 2-0 week, that includes a decent road win at Memphis.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/20 – Albany

12/23 – Grand Canyon

(92) Virginia Tech (9-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  (61) Washington

Bad Losses – (161) St. Louis

Notes – Virginia Tech didn’t win at Kentucky, but they proved they can compete with a quality team on the road.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/19 – Presbyterian

(73) Boston College (9-3) (1-0) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (1) Duke, (64) LaSalle

Bad Losses – None

Notes – I’m putting Boston College in the field this week. Could we have been wrong about Jim Christian? This might be his best BC team yet.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/23 – Richmond

Bubble But Out 

(134) NC State (8-3) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  * (32) Arizona

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Oh that loss to UNC-Greensboro is going to leave mark. I think we’re going to see some wild swings in play from this NC State team this year.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/19 – Robert Morris

12/22 – Jacksonville

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(170) Wake Forest (7-4) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (83) UNC-Greensboro

Bad Losses – * (208) Liberty, * (227) Drake

Notes – Wake Forest has 6 games in a row. They get a pretty good Tennessee at home this week. It’s an early must win for Wake Forest.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/23 – Tennessee

(180) Pittsburgh (6-5) (0-0)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (44) Santa Barbara

Bad Losses – (143) Navy, (106) Penn State, (119) Oklahoma State, (197) Montanta

Notes – Just as Pittsburgh was starting to play better, their star player Ryan Luther gets hurt. There’s still a couple of winnable games this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/19 – Delaware St.

12/22 – Towson

(235) Georgia Tech (5-4) (0-0)

Last 10 – (5-4)

Good Wins –  (89) Northwestern

Bad Losses – (116) UCLA, * (166) Wofford, (203) Grambling

Notes – If Georgia Tech is going to start salvaging their season, they better start by winning at Georgia and going 2-0 this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/19 – @UGA

12/22 – Wright State

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