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Dec
10
2017

ACC Bubble Analysis for December 10, 2017

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(1) Duke (11-1) (0-1) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (3) Michigan State, (63) Portland State, (66) Texas, (71) Utah Valley, (78) Florida, (92) South Dakota

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke took a surprising loss at Boston College this, but they also have the OOC win of anyone in the country with their victory over Michigan State. Coach K has to find a way to get his team to play 40 minutes of defense if they are to reach their potential.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

None

(48) Miami (8-0) (8-0) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (8-0)

Good Wins –  * (49) Minnesota, (90) LaSalle

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Canes need more quality wins before I can make them a top 2 seed, but there’s no question this is a very good team.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/16 – @George Washington

(5) North Carolina (9-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (9) Arkansas, * (18) Northern Iowa, * (44) Michigan, (80) Tulane

Bad Losses – None

Notes – North Carolina is quietly putting together a good looking resume. Their only loss is to Michigan State.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/16 – @Tennessee (If the Heels win this, I’ll move them to a top 2 seed)

(43) Florida State (9-0) (0-0) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (9-0)

Good Wins – (78) Florida

Bad Losses – None

Notes – That road win at Florida is going to resonate all season. The Noles are one of the ACC’s early surprises – in a good way.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/16 – Oklahoma State (This would be a solid OOC to get)

(65) Notre Dame (8-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (14) Wichita State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Notre Dame has looked like a top 5 at teams at times this year, but they also lost to Ball State at home.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/16 – @Indiana (Hoosiers aren’t very good, but that is a difficult place to play)

(21) Virginia (8-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (8-1)

Good Wins – (24) Rhode Island

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia has gotten to the point where they are good every year. Their only loss is at a real good West Virginia team.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/16 – Davidson

(23) Syracuse (8-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (8-1)

Good Wins –  (76) Maryland

Bad Losses – None

Notes – It’s been a light schedule for Syracuse, but they’ve taken advantage – winning all the games they are supposed too. Their only loss is to Kansas.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/16 – @Georgetown (One of the great rivalries during the Big East’s heyday)

Bubble But In

(109) Louisville (6-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (6-2)

Good Wins –  None

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville doesn’t have bad losses, but no quality wins either. The Cards will a couple of opportunities to solidify their resume before conference play starts.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/11 – Bryant

12/16 – @Memphis (Tricky road game, that Louisville can’t lose or I’ll drop them out of the field next week)

(31) NC State (8-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins –  * (31) Arizona

Bad Losses – None

Notes – NC State has a great looking win over Arizona and no bad losses. The Kevin Keatts era is off to a good start.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/16 – UNC-Greensboro

(104) Virginia Tech (9-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins –  (54) Washington

Bad Losses – (182) St. Louis

Notes – There isn’t alot of meat for the Hokies on their resume, but they do have a win over Washington. The Huskies beat Kansas.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/16 – @Kentucky (Oh if the Hokies could steal this one)

Bubble But Out 

(73) Boston College (7-3) (1-0)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (1) Duke, (90) LaSalle

Bad Losses – None

Notes – That win over Duke sent shockwaves through college basketball. The BC backcourt is really good. You better keep an eye on this team.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/12 – Columbia

12/17 – Central Connecticut (If BC Wins both, I’ll probably put them in)

(41) Clemson (8-1) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (0-0)

Good Wins –  *(47) Ohio State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Clemson has a resume similar to some other teams that I have – that made it, but I really want to see more from them.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/16 – @Florida (A win at Florida will get you in the Big Dance – Clemson)

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(157) Wake Forest (6-4) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  None

Bad Losses – * (190) Liberty, * (210) Drake

Notes – Wake Forest got off to a dreadful start losing 4 of their first 5, but they’ve won 5 games in a row.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/18 – @Coastal Carolina

(159) Pittsburgh (5-5) (0-0)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  * (35) Santa Barbara

Bad Losses – (130) Navy, (142) Penn State, (173) Oklahoma State, (214) Montanta

Notes – Pitt isn’t going to make the NCAAs, but there are some signs of life. They were competitive in a home loss to West Virginia. I still don’t think Kevin Stallings is the answer as head coach though.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/16 – McNeese St.

(231) Georgia Tech (4-4) (0-0)

Last 10 – (4-4)

Good Wins –  None

Bad Losses – (118) UCLA, * (167) Wofford, (233) Grambling

Notes – Georgia Tech certainly didn’t expect to be out of the NCAA chase this early in the year, but that’s where they find themselves. Josh Okogie when he returns will help, but the Jackets are close to basically preparing for next year.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

12/17 – FAMU

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