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Feb
23
2017

ACC Bubble Analysis for February 23, 2017

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This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(3) North Carolina (23-5) (12-3) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (28) Oklahoma State, * (23) Wisconsin, (92) Chattanooga, * (64) Tennessee, * (44) Monmouth , * (40) Wake Forest, * (60) Clemson, * (13) Florida State, * (36) Virginia Tech, (65) Pittsburgh, (78) Syracuse, * (25) Notre Dame, * (6) Louisville, * (20) Virginia

Bad Losses – None

Notes – North Carolina looked very impressive with two double digit home wins over Virginia and Louisville this past week. That moves them to the 1 line. This week are games at Pittsburgh and Virginia.

(6) Louisville (22-6) (10-5) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (17) Purdue, * (41) Witchita State,  * (10) Kentucky, (65) Pittsburgh, (91) Indiana, * (12) Duke, (88) Georgia Tech, (60) Clemson, (65) Pittsburgh,* (37) Miami, (78) Syracuse, * (36) Virginia Tech, (99) Indiana

Bad Losses – None

Notes – No shame in a week where the Cards beat Virginia and lost at UNC. This week they host Syracuse and play at Wake Forest. A #1 seed is not out of the question, but Louisville probably has to win out.

(12) Duke (22-6) (10-5) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (8) Florida, * (46) Michigan State,  * (49) Rhode Island, (83) Penn State, (88) Georgia Tech, (50) Miami, * (25) Notre Dame, * (40) Wake Forest, (65) Pittsburgh, * (3) North Carolina, * (20) Virginia, (60) Clemson, * (40) Wake Forest

Bad Losses – (103) NC state

Notes – Duke beat Wake Forest, but a loss at Syracuse keeps them from higher than a 3 seed. If they win at Miami and then beat FSU, that could move them up next week.

(13) Florida State (22-6) (10-5) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (8) Florida, * (16) Minnesota, (58) Illinois, * (20) Virginia, * (40) Wake Forest, * (12) Duke, * (36) Virginia Tech, * (25) Notre Dame, * (6) Louisville, (74) Winthrop, * (37) Miami, (60) Clemson

Bad Losses – (114) Temple

Notes – That was not a good loss at Pittsburgh, but FSU did come back to beat Boston College. The Noles are very close to slipping out being a top 3 seed. There are two tricky road games this week, at desperate Clemson then at Duke.

(25) Notre Dame (21-7) (10-5) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (43) Northwestern, (65) Pittsburgh, * (6) Louisville,  (60) Clemson, * (37) Miami, * (36) Virginia Tech, (78) Syracuse, * (40) Wake Forest, * (13) Florida State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Irish have won 4 games in row. This week they won at NC State. They have two winnable home games with Georgia Tech and Boston College coming to town.

(20) Virginia (18-9) (8-7) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (54) Providence, (81) Ohio State, * (6) Louisville, * (40) Wake Forest, * (45) California, (60) Clemson, * (25) Notre Dame, (88) Georgia Tech,  * (36) Virginia Tech, * (6) Louisville

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia is really struggling right now. They can’t score, and their defense is show a tendency to wear down late in games. They’ve lost 4 straight games, including this past week at UNC and then at home against Miami. If Virginia loses at NC State and then at home to UNC, they’ll drop a couple of more seeds.

(36) Virginia Tech (19-8) (8-7) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (67) Ole Miss, (51) Michigan, (75) Nebraska, * (12) Duke, (85) New Mexico, (88) Georgia Tech, (60) Clemson, (78) Syracuse, (65) Pittsburgh, * (20) Virginia, (60) Clemson

Bad Losses – (103) NC State

Notes – There’s nothing wrong with a 4 point loss at Louisville. The Hokies survived Clemson, and now have just about locked up an NCAA bid. They go to Boston College and host Miami. If they sweep the Hokies will come off the 8/9 line.

(37) Miami (19-8) (9-6) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  (71) Stanford, (65) Pittsburgh, * (3) UNC, * (36) Virginia Tech, (88) Georgia Tech, * (20) Virginia, (60) Clemson

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Canes are safely in the big dance after beating Clemson and getting a big win at Virginia. This team is quietly playing very good, but it’s tough finishing stretch. They host Duke, and play at Virginia Tech this week.

Bubble But In

(78) Syracuse (17-12) (9-7) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (44) Monmouth, (65) Pittsburgh, (37) Miami, * (40) Wake Forest, * (13) Florida State, * (20) Virginia, (60) Clemson, * (12) Duke

Bad Losses – (106) UCONN, (123) St. Johns, * (204) Boston College

Notes – Syracuse lost at Georgia Tech, but got a monster win against Duke. Because they have some ugly losses, the Cuse isn’t safe yet, but they are close. They need just 1 more regular season win to be assured of a bid. They head to Louisville this week.

Bubble But Out 

(88) Georgia Tech (16-12) (7-8) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  * (26) VCU, * (3) North Carolina, (60) Clemson, * (13) Florida State, * (25) Notre Dame, (78) Syracuse

Bad Losses – (104) Ohio, (103) NC State

Notes – Georgia Tech got a big home win over Syracuse, but followed it up with a crushing home loss they could not afford to NC State. The Jacket’s NCAA hopes are hanging by a thread, and they need to finish at least 9-9 in the ACC. That means no worse than split with Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. A sweep would be huge.

(40) Wake Forest (16-12) (7-9) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (66) College of Charleston, * (37) Miami, (82) Bucknell, (88) Georgia Tech, (96) Richmond, (65) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – None

Notes – We wait and wait for Wake Forest to pickup a signature win or two. The lost at Duke by 5 points, and beat Pitt this past week. Here is it for Wake Forest. They get Louisville at home in a game they have to have.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(103) NC State (15-14) (4-12) 

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins –  * (36) Virginia Tech, (65) Pittsburgh, * (12) Duke, (88) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – (204) Boston College

Notes – NC State isn’t going to the NCAAs, and in their most inspired game in weeks may have made sure Georgia Tech isn’t going either in an upset win. They host Virginia this week, and could send the Hoos further down the NCAA seeds.

(60) Clemson (14-13) (4-11) 

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins –  *(42) UNC-Wilmington, * (40) Wake Forest,  (73) Alabama, (75) Nebraska, (57) Georgia, * (29) South Carolina, (65) Pittsburgh, (88) Georgia Tech, * (40) Wake Forest

Bad Losses – (174) Oklahoma

Notes – Some bracket prognostications still have Clemson on the bubble. I’m not sure why because they aren’t after losing 2 more games. The Tigers just can’t close out games, and it’s left Brad Brownell on the hotseat. If they sweep FSU and NC State at home this week, they might be able to the see bubble off in the distance.

(65) Pittsburgh (15-13) (4-11)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins –  * (21) Maryland, (83) Penn State, (69) Marquette, * (20) Virginia, (78) Syracuse, * (13) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (241) Duquesne, (103) NC State

Notes – It’s amazing that between Clemson and Pittsburgh they have 15 top 100 RPI wins, and just 8 ACC wins. Pitt beat FSU this week, but lost at Wake Forest. They play at UNC at home, and then head Georgia Tech. It wouldn’t shock me if Pitt won both or lost both.

(204) Boston College (9-19) (2-13)

Last 10 – (0-10)

Good Wins – (54) Providence, (79) Auburn, (78) Syracuse, (95) Towson

Bad Losses – * (324) Hartford,  (133) Harvard, (189) Fairfield, (265) Nicholls State

Notes – Let’s add BC and NC State to Clemson and Pitt and the 4 worst ACC teams have 23 Top 100 RPI wins – WOW. Boston College hasn’t won since January 11. They have Virginia Tech at home, then play at Notre Dame.

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