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Feb
02
2017

ACC Bubble Analysis for February 2, 2017

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This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(4) Louisville (18-4) (6-3) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (26) Purdue, (67) Witchita State,  * (7) Kentucky, (55) Pittsburgh, (72) Indiana, * (19) Duke, (70) Georgia Tech, * (39) Clemson, (55) Pittsburgh, (83) NC State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – There may not be anyone in the ACC playing better than Louisville at the moment. The Cards have back to back 25+ point ACC wins. If Louisville can win at BC and at Virginia, they may push for a number one seed next week. UVa has given Louisville fits.

(6) North Carolina (20-4) (8-2) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (37) Oklahoma State, * (21) Wisconsin, (93) Chattanooga, * (38) Tennessee, (51) Monmouth , * (32) Wake Forest, * (39) Clemson, (83) NC State, * (8) Florida State, * (40) Virginia Tech, (55) Pittsburgh, (84) Syracuse

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Heels didn’t play well last week, losing at Miami and then struggling with Pitt at home. They get Notre Dame at home and then the always big one with Duke in Durham.

(14) Virginia (17-4) (7-2) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (66) Providence, (80) Ohio State, * (4) Louisville, * (32) Wake Forest, * (47) California, * (39) Clemson, * (29) Notre Dame, (70) Georgia Tech,  * (40) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia came oh so close to winning at Villanova. That would have lifted them to the ACC’s  highest seeded team. Still the Hoos have a very good team, but they have a tough week ahead with a game at Syracuse and then Louisville at home.

(8) Florida State (19-4) (7-3) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (9) Florida, * (24) Minnesota, (57) Illinois, * (14) Virginia, * (32) Wake Forest, * (19) Duke, * (40) Virginia Tech, * (29) Notre Dame, * (4) Louisville, (98) Winthrop, (74) Miami, (94) Iona

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Noles were on a 2 game losing, but a brilliant 2nd half on the road at Miami showed us what this team is capable of. With Clemson and NC State at home, the Noles have a chance to move into top 2 or 3 seed territory.

(19) Duke (17-5) (5-4) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (9) Florida, * (46) Michigan State,  * (44) Rhode Island, (79) Penn State, (70) Georgia Tech, (74) Miami, * (29) Notre Dame, * (32) Wake Forest

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke may be righting the ship. They got two solid road wins at Wake Forest and at Notre Dame. This week is Pitt and the monster rivalry game with North Carolina at home. Oh Coach K is back too.

(29) Notre Dame (17-6) (6-4) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (35) Northwestern, (55) Pittsburgh, * (4) Louisville, * (39) Clemson, (74) Miami, * (40) Virginia Tech, (84) Syracuse

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Irish have suddenly lost 3 games in row. They lost in the final seconds at Georgia Tech, and then went down to Duke at home. The have road game at UNC, and then host Wake Forest. The Irish need a split or they’ll slip towards a double digit seed.

(37) Virginia Tech (16-6) (5-5) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (65) Ole Miss, (64) Michigan, (62) Nebraska, * (19) Duke, (73) New Mexico, (70) Georgia Tech, * (39) Clemson, (84) Syracuse

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Hokies beat Boston College, but had an ugly blowout loss at Virginia. The Hokies just aren’t putting together the wins to move higher than the 8-9 game. With that if they lose at Miami and at home to Virginia this week, they will be right on the bubble. Virginia Tech needs at least 1 win next week.

Bubble But In

(75) Miami (14-7) (4-5) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (60) Stanford, (83) NC State, (55) Pittsburgh, * (6) UNC

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Miami got a big over UNC to keep them in the field, but the loss at home to FSU keeps them on the bubble. The play at reeling but still dangerous NC State, and then host Virginia Tech. A sweep would go a long way for Miami.

(84) Syracuse (14-9) (6-4) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (51) Monmouth, (55) Pittsburgh, (74) Miami, * (32) Wake Forest, * (8) Florida State, (83) NC State

Bad Losses – (146) UCONN, (134) St. Johns, * (198) Boston College

Notes – That’s how you play yourself in the field. Syracuse has won 3 games in row including FSU and NC State last week. The Cuse were forgotten 3 weeks ago, but are surging now. This week is Virginia at home and then Clemson on the road. A split would be fine for the Orange.

(70) Georgia Tech (13-9) (5-5) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (31) VCU, * (6) North Carolina * (39) Clemson, (83) NC State, * (8) Florida State, * (29) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – (138) Ohio

Notes – Georgia Tech got a huge win over Notre Dame, but lost at Clemson which was ok. The Jackets needed and got a split last week. A win at Wake Forest and something called Tusculum keeps the Jackets in the field, but a loss in either drops them just out.

Bubble But Out 

(39) Clemson (13-8) (3-6) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  *(33) UNC-Wilmington, * (32) Wake Forest,  (63) Alabama, (62) Nebraska, (50) Georgia, * (20) South Carolina, (55) Pittsburgh, (70) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – (145) Oklahoma

Notes – Clemson got a much needed sweep this past week with wins over Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech. The Tigers have to win at FSU and beat Syracuse at home to get into the Big Dance next week. A split keeps them close, but losing both would be crushing.

(32) Wake Forest (13-9) (4-6) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  (78) College of Charleston, (74) Miami, (91) Bucknell, (83) NC State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Add another should have been a win to Wake Forest’s resume as they blew a double digit lead late against Duke. The did beat BC, but that Duke loss hurts. Wake Forest absolutely can’t do worse than a split with Georgia Tech at home and Notre Dame on the road.

(83) NC State (14-9) (3-7) 

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins –  (40) Virginia Tech, (55) Pittsburgh, * (19) Duke

Bad Losses – (198) Boston College

Notes – NC State’s NCAA hopes are on life support after losing at Louisville, and taking a crippling home loss to Syracuse. If NC State doesn’t at least split with Miami and FSU this week, their NCAA hopes are done.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(55) Pittsburgh (12-10) (1-8) 

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins –  * (17) Maryland, (79) Penn State, (68) Marquette, * (14) Virginia

Bad Losses – * (226) Duquesne

Notes – At 1-8 in the ACC, Pittsburgh can start looking towards next season. This week is road games at Duke and Boston College.

(198) Boston College (9-14) (2-8)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (66) Providence, (77) Auburn,  (83) NC State, (84) Syracuse, (99) Towson

Bad Losses – (108) Richmond, * (330) Hartford,  (173) Harvard, (192) Fairfield, (217) Nicholls State

Notes – BC just can’t finish a game out. They lost two more close games to Virginia Tech and Wake Forest this week. The Eagles get Louisville and Pitt at home this week.

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