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Jan
26
2017

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 26, 2017

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This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(10) North Carolina (19-3) (7-1) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (43) Oklahoma State, * (23) Wisconsin, (99) Chattanooga, * (49) Tennessee, (55) Monmouth , * (26) Wake Forest, * (47) Clemson, (59) NC State, * (8) Florida State, * (37) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Tell me why North Carolina shouldn’t be a 1 seed after all the top 10 upsets this week. The Heels beat both Boston College and Virginia Tech this week. Next week could be a tough game at Miami and then a home game against reeling Pittsburgh.

(4) Louisville (17-4) (5-3) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (28) Purdue, (68) Witchita State, (98) Texas Southern,  * (6) Kentucky, * (48) Pittsburgh, (73) Indiana, * (24) Duke, (74) Georgia Tech, * (47) Clemson, * (48) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – None

Notes – No shame in Louisville losing at FSU, but there was the absolute annihilation of Pitt at Pittsburgh by 55! Injuries are stating to mount for for Louisville though. That’s something to watch. This week is a home game with NC State and then a game at Boston College.

(14) Virginia (16-3) (6-2) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (71) Providence, (67) Ohio State, * (4) Louisville, * (26) Wake Forest, (52) California, * (47) Clemson, * (22) Notre Dame, (74) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia’s 17 point win at Notre Dame was one of the most impressive ACC wins of the year. The Cavs also beat Georgia Tech this week. Next week if Virginia beats Villanova and Virginia Tech could they make a case for a number 1 seed?

(8) Florida State (18-3) (6-2) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (11) Florida, * (21) Minnesota, * (45) Illinois, * (14) Virginia, * (26) Wake Forest, * (24) Duke, * (37) Virginia Tech, (51) Virginia Tech, * (22) Notre Dame, * (4) Louisville, (85) Winthrop

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Good win over Louisville, but the Noles were flat destroyed by Georgia Tech. At one point it was 41-15! I think the the Noles will be fine ( I think ), but they certainly did get rattled in Atlanta. There are two tricky road games at Syracuse and Miami this week.

(22) Notre Dame (17-4) (6-2) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (35) Northwestern, *(48) Pittsburgh, * (4) Louisville, * (47) Clemson, (75) Miami, * (37) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Notre Dame beat Syracuse this week, but really struggled at home with Virginia in a 71-54 loss. This week is a tough game at Georgia Tech then a home game with Duke.

(24) Duke (15-5) (3-4) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (11) Florida, * (50) Michigan State,  (56) Rhode Island, (70) Penn State, (74) Georgia Tech, (75) Miami

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke beat Miami and at home, but collapsed down the stretch at Cameron against NC State. This team is simply not playing to their potential and who knows if they will this season. They have a tricky week with road games at Wake Forest and Notre Dame. If Duke loses both, that’s the bubble over there.

(37) Virginia Tech (15-5) (4-4) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  (61) Ole Miss, (64) Michigan, (69) Nebraska, * (24) Duke, (82) New Mexico, (74) Georgia Tech, * (47) Clemson

Bad Losses – None

Notes – No harm this week for the Hokies as they won at Clemson, but lost at North Carolina. Boston College is at home, then a big road game at Virginia. A split will keep Virginia Tech on the NCAA track.

Bubble But In

(75) Miami (13-6) (3-4) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (58) Stanford, (59) NC State, * (48) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – (112) Syracuse

Notes – Miami split with Duke and BC this past this week. That’s ok for now. The Canes need some quality wins though to stay in the field. The Canes need a split in homes games with UNC and FSU. Lose both and Miami is out next week.

(59) NC State (14-7) (3-5) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (37) Virginia Tech, * (48) Pittsburgh, * (87) Georgia Southern, * (24) Duke

Bad Losses – (183) Boston College

Notes – NC State sneaks into the field this week after winning on the road at Duke. There was a loss to Wake Forest though. There is a game at Louisville then Syracuse at home. The Wolfpack need at least a split.

(74) Georgia Tech (12-8) (4-4) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (39) VCU, * (10) North Carolina * (47) Clemson, (59) NC State, * (8) Florida State

Bad Losses – (138) Ohio

Notes – Amazing is the only way to describe the job new coach Josh Pastner is doing. The Jackets lost at Virginia, but played great basketball in blowing out Florida State at home. A split with Notre Dame at home and Clemson on the road keeps them in the Big Dance.

Bubble But Out

(25) Wake Forest (12-8) (3-5) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  (66) College of Charleston, (75) Miami, (95) Bucknell, (59) NC State

Bad Losses – (112) Syracuse

Notes – Oh Wake Forest really needed that win against Syracuse. They did win at NC State, but despite the 25 RPI that’s not enough to put them. If Wake Forest could beat Duke at home and beat BC on the road that would get them in next week.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(47) Clemson (11-8) (1-6) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  *(27) UNC-Wilmington, * (26) Wake Forest,  (76) Alabama, (69) Nebraska, (54) Georgia, * (17) South Carolina

Bad Losses – (128) Oklahoma

Notes – A 1-6 team in the ACC isn’t on the bubble. Clemson just can’t win their close games in the ACC. They really need a sweep of Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech this week.

(112) Syracuse (12-9) (4-4) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (55) Monmouth, * (48) Pittsburgh, (75) Miami, * (26) Wake Forest

Bad Losses – (143) UCONN, (144) St. Johns, * (183) Boston College

Notes – The Cuse split with Notre Dame and Wake Forest this past week with the loss at Notre Dame. If Syracuse beats FSU at home and NC State on the road they may be in the field next week. A winning record in the ACC gets you in despite some ugly losses.

(48) Pittsburgh (12-8) (1-6) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  * (18) Maryland, (70) Penn State, (93) Marshall, (44) Marquette, * (14) Virginia

Bad Losses – * (224) Duquesne, (112) Syracuse

Notes – A 1-6 team in the ACC has beat Maryland, Marquette and Virginia. It is incredible the depth of the ACC. In the case of Pitt, they just lost a home game to Louisville by 55 points. Kevin Stallings is finding out this isn’t the SEC. This is big boy basketball in the ACC. The Panthers host Clemson and then head to UNC this week.

(183) Boston College (9-12) (2-6)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (71) Providence, (77) Auburn,  (59) NC State

Bad Losses – (108) Richmond, * (326) Hartford,  (149) Harvard, (188) Fairfield, (112) Syracuse, (192) Nicholls State

Notes – BC was competitive in games with North Carolina and Miami. They lost both by single digits. This team has a couple of more ACC wins in them. Games at Virginia Tech then at home with Wake Forest are this week.

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