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Jan
19
2017

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 19, 2017

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This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(9) Florida State (17-2) (5-1) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (6) Florida, * (13) Minnesota, * (46) Illinois, * (17) Virginia, * (25) Wake Forest, * (16) Duke, * (17) Virginia, (51) Virginia Tech, * (20) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Noles lost at UNC this past week, but came back with a solid win over Notre Dame. This FSU team can get to the Final 4. They host Louisville and then play at surprisingly dangerous Georgia Tech this week.

(11) North Carolina (17-3) (5-1) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (65) Oklahoma State, * (33) Wisconsin, (77) Chattanooga, (69) Tennessee, (57) Monmouth , * (25) Wake Forest, * (39) Clemson, (52) NC State, * (9) Florida State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Since UNC lost at Georgia Tech, the Heels have won 5 games in a row. They’ve mostly looked real good in those wins too. They had double digit wins at home against FSU and Syracuse last week. If they win at Boston College and at home against Virginia Tech, they could push for a #1 seed.

(8) Louisville (16-3) (4-2) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (31) Purdue, (80) Witchita State, (66) Texas Southern,  * (5) Kentucky, * (40) Pittsburgh, (75) Indiana, * (16) Duke, (98) Georgia Tech, * (39) Clemson

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville took care of business at home against Duke and Clemson. There’s a monster game at FSU, where the winner might be a 1 seed next week. There is also a road game at desperate Pittsburgh.

(20) Notre Dame (16-3) (5-1) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (38) Northwestern, *(40) Pittsburgh, * (8) Louisville, * (39) Clemson, (78) Miami, (51) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – No shame in losing at FSU for the Irish. They balanced it out with a solid road win at Virginia Tech. Syracuse and Virginia are in South Bend this week. In particular the UVa defense vs the Notre Dane offense should be a lot of fun to watch.

(18) Virginia (14-3) (4-2) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (53) Providence, (67) Ohio State, * (8) Louisville, * (25) Wake Forest, (54) California, * (39) Clemson

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia is quietly playing some very good basketball right now. London Perrantes was been un- guard-able in the win at Clemson. They host Georgia Tech, and head to Notre Dame later in the week.

(16) Duke (14-4) (2-3) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (6) Florida, * (36) Michigan State,  * (49) Rhode Island, (72) Penn State, (98) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke lost at Louisville, and they need to right the ship to get back among the top 4 seeds. Miami and NC State head to Duke this week, and a sweep would do wonders for the Blue Devils.

(51) Virginia Tech (14-4) (3-3) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  * (43) Ole Miss, (79) Michigan, (58) Nebraska, * (16) Duke, (89) New Mexico, (98) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Hokies stay on track for the NCAAs. They couldn’t get the win over Notre Dame, but beating Georgia Tech keeps the Hokies at .500 in the ACC. Road games at Clemson and UNC will test Virginia Tech this week.

Bubble But In

(78) Miami (12-5) (2-3) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  (60) Stanford, * (52) NC State, * (40) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – (133) Syracuse

Notes – Miami got a split on the road this week winning at Pittsburgh but losing to Wake Forest. The Canes need to continue to hover around the .500 in the mark, and they’ll remain in the field. That means they need a split with Duke and BC this week.

Bubble But Out

(39) Clemson (11-7) (1-5) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  *(32) UNC-Wilmington, * (25) Wake Forest,  (83) Alabama, (58) Nebraska, * (41) Georgia, * (22) South Carolina

Bad Losses – (103) Oklahoma

Notes – Clemson’s losing streak has reached 5 games. Virginia Tech at home Sunday is a must win. If they win at Pittsburgh too, Clemson would get back on the bubble. The Tigers need to make a move NOW. It looked like they quit in the loss at Louisville, and that’s a bad sign.

(98) Georgia Tech (11-7) (3-3) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (45) VCU, * (11) North Carolina * (39) Clemson, (52) NC State

Bad Losses – (138) Ohio

Notes – The Jackets came within 1 point of getting putting into the Big Dance. Georgia Tech had a strong week winning at NC State, the barely going down 62-61 at Virginia Tech. Any .500 team in the ACC will get a close look. The Jackets are on the bubble. If Georgia Tech somehow can get a split with Virginia and FSU, they are in the field next week.

(52) NC State (13-6) (2-4) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (51) Virginia Tech, * (40) Pittsburgh, * (84) Georgia Southern

Bad Losses – (179) Boston College

Notes – NC State for as shaky as they’ve played most of the ACC season is actually on the bubble. The lost at home Georgia Tech, but came back to defeat Pittsburgh. If they split with Wake Forest and Duke, that wouldn’t be a bad week.

(25) Wake Forest (11-7) (2-4) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (56) College of Charleston, (78) Miami, (95) Bucknell

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Wake Forest has good computer numbers, but they are lacking quality wins. A sweep at NC State and Syracuse this week gets them in the field – a split will get them on the bubble.

(133) Syracuse (11-8) (3-3) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (53) Monmouth, * (40) Pittsburgh, (78) Miami

Bad Losses – * (153) UCONN, * (144) St. Johns, * (179) Boston College

Notes – As I said earlier any team .500 in the ACC is going to get a bubble look. That’s where Syracuse is right now. There is a game at Notre Dame, then the Cuse host Wake Forest.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(40) Pittsburgh (12-7) (1-5) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  * (23) Maryland, (72) Penn State, (76) Marshall, (93) Marquette, * (17) Virginia

Bad Losses – * (207) Duquesne, (133) Syracuse

Notes – Pitt needs to get going here. They’ve lost 4 games in a row. With Louisville and Clemson at home next week, they need a sweep.

(179) Boston College (9-10) (2-4)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (53) Providence, (74) Auburn,  (52) NC State

Bad Losses – (106) Richmond, * (317) Hartford,  (132) Harvard, (187) Fairfield, (133) Syracuse, (158) Nicholls State

Notes – BC has 2 wins in the ACC this year. It’s going to be tough to double that. This week is UNC at home then a road trip to Miami.

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