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Jan
02
2017

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 2, 2017

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This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(9) Louisville (12-2) (0-1) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (52) Purdue, (72) Witchita State, (57) Texas Southern, (6) Kentucky

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville is building up a solid resume. The meat grinder ACC got them when Virginia beat the Cards, but Louisville responded with a road win at Indiana.This week are games at Norte Dame and suddenly dangerous Georgia Tech.

(10) Florida State (14-1) (2-0) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (2) Florida, * (11) Minnesota, * (26) Illinois, (73) Nicholls State, (74) Samford, * (16) Virginia, * (22) Wake Forest

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Noles beat Wake Forest this past week, and then got a very impressive win at Virginia. They host a good Virginia Tech team this week.

(13) Duke (12-2) (0-1) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (2) Florida, *(34) Michigan State,  (45) Rhode Island, (70) Penn State, (61) Tennessee State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke is talented, but they have man to man defense issues, chemistry issues, Grayson Allen issues, and now Coach K is out for a month. Hosting Georgia Tech and BC should provide a break… should. Suddenly Georgia Tech and BC look much improved.

(18) North Carolina (12-3) (0-1) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (54) Oklahoma State, (69) Davidson, (53) Wisconsin, (75) Chattanooga, (66) Tennessee, (68) Monmouth

Bad Losses – (130) Indiana, (161) Georgia Tech

Notes – North Carolina lost Georgia Tech this past week. No disrespect to Georgia Tech, but they are not at a point where they should be beating the Heels. That was an ugly – concerning loss for UNC. With a good Clemson team this week, and NC State – the Heels need to get their act together.

(21) Virginia (11-2) (1-1) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (50) Providence, (96) Yale, (92) Ohio State, * (9) Louisville

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia losing at home to FSU was a bit surprising, but they did get a road win at Louisville. This week is a tough game at Pitt and then a home game with Wake Forest.

(41) Notre Dame (12-2) (1-0) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (47) Northwestern, (65) Colorado, (90) Loyola-Maryland, *(40) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Irish picked up a good road at Pitt this past week. If they beat Louisville and Clemson at home, then I’ll move them into a top 4 seeding.

(43) Virginia Tech (12-1) (1-0) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins –  * (48) Ole Miss, (87) Michigan, * (49) Nebraska, * (13) Duke, (98) New Mexico

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Buzz Williams has got himself a team at Virginia Tech. They routed Duke 89-75 this past week. Upcoming this week are games at NC State and FSU. A split would be acceptable.

Bubble But In

(20) Clemson (11-2) (1-0) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins –  *(15) UNC-Wilmington, * (22) Wake Forest,  (69) Davidson, * (49) Nebraska, * (37) Georgia, (51) South Carolina

Bad Losses – (168) Oklahoma

Notes – Clemson has won 9 games in row, and has a look of a NCAA team. A major week is ahead for Clemson. They get UNC at home and then head to Notre Dame. A split would be just fine.

(58) Miami (11-2) (1-0) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  (64) Stanford, * (38) NC State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Miami got a good win over NC State this past week. They head to Syracuse this week.

(40) Pittsburgh (11-3) (0-1) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  * (29) Maryland, (70) Penn State, (96) Yale, (83) Marquette

Bad Losses – * (194) Duquesne

Notes – Pitt lost at home to Notre Dame this past week. They could use a sweep of Virginia at home and reeling Syracuse on the road.

Bubble But Out

(22) Wake Forest (9-5) (0-2) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (57) College of Charleston

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Wake Forest has good computer numbers, but they just don’t have the wins. Boston College is a must win this week. A road game with Virginia is also on the schedule.

(38) NC State (11-3) (0-1) 

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  (61) Tennessee State, (62) St. Joseph

Bad Losses – None

Notes – NC State just doesn’t have the wins to be included in the field. A split with Virginia Tech and UNC would be a good start this week.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(161) Georgia Tech (9-4) (1-0) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  * (31) VCU, (18) North Carolina

Bad Losses – * (160) Ohio

Notes – Georgia Tech pulled off one of the biggest stunners of the year beating UNC. They have a good win over VCU too. Already this season has exceeded expectations for new coach Josh Pastner. Could they somehow split with Duke and Louisville this week?

(200) Boston College (8-6) (1-0)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (50) Providence, (86) Auburn, (97) Towson

Bad Losses – * (180) Richmond, * (314) Hartford, * (132) Harvard, (125) Fairfield

Notes – BC has won back to back games and 4 of their last 5. They also picked a win over Syracuse. Next week are games at Wake Forest and Duke. The Eagles are improved. You can’t over look them.

(222) Syracuse (8-6) (0-1) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  (68) Monmouth

Bad Losses – * (190) UCONN, * (154) St. Johns, * (200) Boston College

Notes – I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a worse Syracuse team. If they don’t sweep Miami and Pittsburgh this week, their NCAA hopes are finished already.

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