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Dec
20
2016

ACC Bubble Analysis for December 20, 2016

 

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This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(12) Duke (12-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (4) Florida, * (45) Rhode Island, (82) Penn State, (56) Tennessee State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke was a bit sloppy against Tennessee State, but won by 10. This week is Elon.

(10) Louisville (10-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (37) Purdue, (76) Witchita State, (63) Texas Southern, (97) Old Dominion

Bad Losses – None

Notes – If Louisville beats Kentucky on Wednesday they could push for a #1 seed. That should be a great game.

(15) North Carolina (10-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (44) Oklahoma State, * (46) Davidson, * (49) Wisconsin, (93) Chattanooga

Bad Losses – None

Notes – North Carolina played a classic against Kentucky, but came up just short. This is a very good team, that faces an always dangerous Northern Iowa team this week.

(21) Virginia (9-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (29) Providence, (84) Yale, (85) Ohio State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – California should provide a solid test on the road this week for Virginia.

(17) Florida State (12-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (4) Florida, * (13) Minnesota, (69) Winthrop, * (42) Illinois, (70) Nicholls State, (92) Iona, (81) Samford

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Noles are off this week.

(52) Notre Dame (10-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (38) Northwestern, (75) Colorado, (83) IPFW

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Notre Dame blew a big chance letting the Purdue game slip away. There are no games for the Irish this week.

(53) Virginia Tech (10-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (10-1)

Good Wins –  * (41) Ole Miss, (86) Michigan, (86) Nebraska

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia Tech is off this week, after a 2-0 week against the Citadel and Charleston Southern.

Bubble But In

(24) Pittsburgh (9-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  * (22) Maryland, (82) Penn State, (85) Yale, (97) Marquette

Bad Losses – * (203) Duquesne

Notes – Nebraska-Omaha is Pitt’s only game this week.

(82) Miami (8-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  * (50) Stanford, (95) Rutgers

Bad Losses – (113) Iowa State

Notes – I sure would have liked to see Miami with some stronger non-conference wins. George Washington is the Canes only game this weekend.

Bubble But Out

(19) Wake Forest (8-3) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  (57) College of Charleston

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Wake Forest was so close to beating Xavier and getting a huge non-conference win losing 69-65. LSU is this week. I’d consider that a must win for Wake Forest.

(36) NC State (9-2) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (9-2)

Good Wins –  (56) Tennessee State, (54) St. Joseph

Bad Losses – None

Notes – McNeese State shouldn’t be a problem this week for NC State.

(72) Clemson (8-2) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (6-2)

Good Wins –  * (46) Davidson, (86) Nebraska, (60) Georgia

Bad Losses – (185) Oklahoma

Notes – Clemson has big game against a good South Carolina team this week. If the Tigers win, I’m putting them in the field.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(159) Syracuse (7-4) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (43) Monmouth

Bad Losses – * (153) UCONN

Notes – Syracuse losing at home to Georgetown was a bad loss this past week. St. Johns and Cornell are this week.

(124) Georgia Tech (6-4) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (26) VCU, (80) Sam Houston State

Bad Losses – * (155) Tennessee

Notes – Georgia Tech looked terrible against Georgia Tuesday night. Wofford is this week.

(265) Boston College (6-5) (0-0)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (65) Auburn

Bad Losses – * (177) Richmond, * (187) Hartford, * (306) Harford

Notes – Fairfield and Providence are this week for BC. I’d don’t think BC will hit double digit wins this year.

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