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Mar
06
2016

ACC Bubble Analysis for March 6, 2016

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An amazing 12 of the 15 ACC Tournament Teams have hopes of the NCAA or NIT Tournament going into the ACC Tournament. This should a lot of fun.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(2) Virginia (24-6) (13-5) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (61) William & Mary, * (10) West Virginia, * (3) Villanova, (76) Ohio State, * (15) California, * (36) Notre Dame,* (7) Miami, (96) Clemson, * (60) Syracuse, * (16) Louisville, (55) Pittsburgh, * (8) UNC, * (16) Louisville, (84) Long Beach State, (86) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia didn’t win the ACC Regular season title, but they look every bit the number 1 seed after winning at Clemson and crushing Louisville at home. Hard to see Virginia falling lower than a 2 seed no matter what happens in the ACCT. If they win it all they will be a lock 1 seed.

(8) North Carolina (25-6) (14-4) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (65) Davidson, * (12) Maryland, (89) Kansas State, (97) UCLA, (71) Georgia Tech, (60) Syracuse, (53) Temple, (69) Florida State, (96) Clemson, (55) Pittsburgh, * (7) Miami, * (18) Duke, (60) Syracuse, (86) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – NONE

Notes – I’m moving UNC back to the 1 line after beating Syracuse and winning at Duke. If they win the ACCT they will stay. Barring some crazy upsets across the country, I don’t see both UNC and Virginia as 1 seeds after the conference tournaments. Only 1 likely makes it.

(7) Miami (24-6) (13-5) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  (56) Florida, * (9) Utah, *(45) Butler, (60) Syracuse, * (38) Princeton, * (48) Florida State, * (18) Duke, (92) College of Charleston, * (36) Notre Dame, (55) Pittsburgh, (71) Georgia Tech, (69) Florida State, (69) Florida State, * (3) Virginia, * (16) Louisville, *(2) Virginia, * (36) Notre Dame, (86) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – (108) Northeastern, (119) NC State, (117) Clemson

Notes – Miami has a strong resume, but a loss at Virginia Tech Saturday makes the Canes quest for #1 seed tougher than Virginia’s or UNC’s. Winning the ACCT is a must for a 1 seed but not a guarantee.

(18) Duke (22-9) (11-7) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  * (22) Indiana, (99) Siena, * (41) Yale, * (40) VCU, (71) Georgia Tech, * (2) Virginia, * (16) Louisville, * (8) UNC, (69) Florida State, (84) Long Beach State, (86) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke has lost 3 of it’s last 5 games, but on a given day they can beat anyone they play. A good ACCT could get them as high as 3 seed, or an early exit could drop them to 7-8 seed territory.

(36) Notre Dame (20-10) (11-7) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (24) Iowa, (63) Stony Brook, * (18) Duke, (71) Georgia Tech, * (8) UNC, * (16) Louisville, (86) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – I don’t like the way the Irish are trending. If any of the top 4 ACCT seeds are ripe for an upset , it is Notre Dame. An early ACCT exit could drop them to a double digit NCAA seed.

Bubble But In

(55) Pittsburgh (20-10) (9-9) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  (65) Davidson, (60) Syracuse, (71) Georgia Tech, * (36) Notre Dame, (69) Florida State, * (18) Duke, (60) Syracuse, (86) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – (119) NC State, (117) Clemson

Notes – Pittsburgh has work to do. They are in the big dance today, but they really need at least 1 more win to feel safe. The winner of the Pittsburgh/Syracuse Wednesday game may well be the one that gets in, and the loser left out.

(60) Syracuse (19-12) (9-9) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (21) Texas A&M, * (54) UCONN, * (27) St. Bonaventure, * (18) Duke,  * (36) Notre Dame, (71) Georgia Tech, (69) Florida State, (86) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – * (223) St. Johns, (117) Clemson, (104) Georgetown

Notes – Like Pitt, Syracuse lost both their games this week. Winner of their game Wednesday is in, loser is sweating Selection Sunday.

Bubble But Out

(69) Florida State (18-12) (8-10)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (56) Florida, (40) VCU, * (2) Virginia, * (36) Notre Dame, (81) Ohio, (60) Syracuse

Bad Losses – (117) Clemson

Notes – Florida State has won their last two games, to give them a shot at the NCAAs. They open with Boston College. A win there won’t help enough. I think if they can get to Friday, they will get a hard look. Make it to the Saturday Final and I think they will make it.

(71) Georgia Tech (18-13) (8-10) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (2) Virginia, * (40) VCU, (69) Florida State, *(36) Notre Dame, (55) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – (117) Clemson

Notes – Georgia Tech is a 3 point loss at Louisville this past week from being in the NCAAs. Beating Clemson Wednesday will get them on the bubble, but not in the NCAAs. If they can beat Virginia a second time, I think they will sneak in as winners 7 of their 8 previous games up to that point. Make it to Saturday and they are in for sure.

(86) Virginia Tech (18-13) (10-8)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (2) Virginia, (71) Georgia Tech, (69) Florida State, (77) UAB, *(7) Miami , (55) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – * (266) Alabama State, (113) Northwestern

Notes – If Virginia Tech had beat Alabama State, they would be 19-12, (10-8) and right on the bubble. Still it is amazing they can make the Big Dance without winning the ACCT. If they make it to Saturday, they can get it 21-14. Winning 2 likely won’t be enough. They have won 5 games in a row to get in the picture.

(117) Clemson (17-13) (10-8)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  (69) Florida State, * (60) Syracuse, * (16) Louisville, * (7) Miami, * (18) Duke, * (55) Pittsburgh, (71) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – * (181) UMass, * (252) Minnesota, (119) NC State

Notes – Clemson is a long way out of the NCAAs, due to terrible computer numbers. I think they have to win ACCT to get in, but a run to the finals is needed at the very least.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

NC State  (15-16) (5-13)

Wake Forest (11-19) (2-16)

Boston College (7-24) (0-18)

Notes – None of the above teams has any shot to make the NCAAs without winning the ACC Tournament. Any win one of these teams gets against a team seeded 1-11, kills that teams post-season  chances or seedings. It could happen too. NC State has beat Miami. Wake Forest has a win over Indiana, and even Boston College went into the final minute with UNC.

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