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Feb
28
2016

ACC Bubble Analysis for February 28, 2016

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Two weeks until selection Sunday!

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(3) Virginia (22-6) (11-5) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (70) William & Mary, * (13) West Virginia, * (2) Villanova, (76) Ohio State, * (17) California, * (31) Notre Dame,* (7) Miami, (96) Clemson, * (57) Syracuse, * (16) Louisville, * (48) Pittsburgh, * (9) UNC

Bad Losses – (115) Virginia Tech

Notes – Virginia lost at Miami this week, but then beat UNC at home Saturday. I like Virginia still at 1 seed, because of the 3 Top 20 OOC RPI Wins. That’s impressive. The entire resume is strong. If they sweep Clemson and Louisville this week they will stay on the 1 line.

(9) North Carolina (23-6) (12-4) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (67) Davidson, * (10) Maryland, (80) Kansas State, (79) UCLA, (72) Georgia Tech, * (57) Syracuse, (55) Temple, (71) Florida State, (96) Clemson, * (48) Pittsburgh, * (7) Miami

Bad Losses – NONE

Notes – UNC won at NC State and lost at Virginia this past week. I think the Heels chances at a 1 seed are slipping, but they still have this week and the ACCT. Sweeping Syracuse and winning at Duke is recommended to get back in the 1 seed picture.

(7) Miami (23-5) (12-4) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (46) Florida, * (8) Utah, (56) Butler, * (57) Syracuse, * (32) Princeton, * (48) Florida State, * (11) Duke, (92) College of Charleston, * (31) Notre Dame, * (48) Pittsburgh, (72) Georgia Tech, (71) Florida State, (71) Florida State, * (3) Virginia, * (16) Louisville

Bad Losses – (123) Northeastern, (109) NC State, (114) Clemson

Notes – Great week for Miami, as they beat Virginia and Louisville. That moves them up to a 2 seed. Can the Canes reach the 1 line? Ask me again in a week. They need to beat Notre Dame and Virginia Tech this week for sure to make that a possibility.

(11) Duke (21-8) (10-6) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (27) Indiana, (96) Siena, (54) Yale, (43) VCU, (72) Georgia Tech, * (3) Virginia, * (16) Louisville, * (9) UNC, (71) Florida State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke had no chance at Pittsburgh in an ugly loss. They get home games with Wake Forest and UNC this week. If Duke wins both, they can still earn a top 4 seed in the Big Dance.

(31) Notre Dame (19-9) (10-6) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (20) Iowa, (63) Stony Brook, * (11) Duke, (72) Georgia Tech, * (9) UNC, * (16) Louisville

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Irish will make the field, but they aren’t exactly playing great basketball. They have lost 2 of their last 3 games. I don’t think losing to Miami and NC State this week would be wise. Add a an opening loss in the ACCT, and the Irish could be sweating Selection Sunday. They need at least a split this week.

Bubble But In

(48) Pittsburgh (20-8) (9-7) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  (67) Davidson, * (57) Syracuse, (72) Georgia Tech, * (31) Notre Dame, (71) Florida State, * (11) Duke

Bad Losses – (109) NC State, (114) Clemson

Notes – Pittsburgh after losing to Louisville, but beating Duke has won 3 of their last 4. They are very close to locking up a NCAAT bid. It’s a tricky week ahead though with games at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. I wouldn’t lose both Pittsburgh. If the Panthers sweep, they are a lock to make field.

(57) Syracuse (19-10) (9-7) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (22) Texas A&M, * (42) UCONN, * (34) St. Bonaventure, * (11) Duke,  * (31) Notre Dame, (72) Georgia Tech, (71) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (225) St. Johns, (114) Clemson, (101) Georgetown

Notes – Syracuse is probably 1 win from locking up a position in the field. Uh Oh two tough road games are this week, UNC and FSU. Lose both, and the Orange will need to a little work in the ACCT.

Bubble But Out

(71) Florida State (17-12) (7-10)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (43) Florida, (46) VCU, * (3) Virginia, * (31) Notre Dame, (78) Ohio

Bad Losses – (114) Clemson, (115) Virginia Tech

Notes – FSU beat Notre Dame this week after losing to Duke. That gives them the faintest of hope to make the NCAA field, but it doesn’t look good. Lose to Syracuse this week and nothing short of winning the ACCT will get them in.

(72) Georgia Tech (17-12) (7-9) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (3) Virginia, * (43) VCU, (71) Florida State, *(31) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – (114) Clemson, (115) Virginia Tech

Notes – It is rather astonishing that Georgia Tech is even in the bubble discussion, but that’s what a 4 game winning streak will do for you. The Jackets have to find a way to beat both Louisville and Pittsburgh this week. A split, will still leave the Jackets on the bubble, but definitely out going into the a ACCT.

(114) Clemson (16-12) (9-7)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  (71) Florida State, * (57) Syracuse, * (16) Louisville, * (7) Miami, * (11) Duke, * (48) Pittsburgh, (72) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – * (172) UMass, * (229) Minnesota, (115) Virginia Tech, (109 NC State

Notes – Clemson still gets a look because they are over .500 in the ACC, but time is running out for the Tigers. Beating Virginia and Boston College is an absolute must this week.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(115) Virginia Tech (16-13) (8-8)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – * (3) Virginia, (72) Georgia Tech, (71) Florida State, (75) UAB

Bad Losses – * (276) Alabama State, (121) Northwestern

Notes – Virginia Tech beat Wake Forest Sunday night in what continues to be a solid season at Virginia Tech. Pittsburgh and Miami come to Virginia Tech and they better be prepared. I bet the Hokies win one of those two home games. A 9-9 finish in the ACC would a be great season for Buzz WIlliams.

(109) NC State (14-15) (4-12)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – * (48) Pittsburgh, (85) LSU, * (7) Miami

Bad Losses – (115) Virginia Tech, (131) Wake Forest

Notes – Just a forgettable season for NC State. They get Boston College at home this week in what should be a win. Then they go to Notre Dame.

(131) Wake Forest (11-18) (2-16) 

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins – (79) UCLA, * (27) Indiana, (85) LSU

Bad Losses – (117) Richmond, (115) Virginia Tech, (109) NC State, (114) Clemson, (115) Virginia Tech

Notes – Wake Forest lost to Virginia Tech at home Sunday night. They head to Duke on March 1st. The Deacs had some decent moments this year, but they are just playing out the string now.

(236) Boston College (7-22) (0-16)

Last 10 – (0-10)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (262) UMass Lowell, * (249) Santa Clara, (101) Penn State, (131) Wake Forest, (114) Clemson, (115) Virginia Tech

Notes – There’s never been an ACC team lose all of it’s conference football and basketball games in the same the season. BC is making a run at that mark. A game at NC State, and then BC hosts Clemson are the Eagle’s last chances at an ACC regular season win.

Post-Season Ban

(16) Louisville (22-7) (11-5)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (48) Pittsburgh, (71) Florida State, (72) Georgia Tech, * (9) UNC, * (11) Duke, * (57) Syracuse, * (48) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – (114) Clemson

Notes – Louisville is one of the 4 best teams in the ACC. They won at Pitt and lost at Miami this past weekend. The face red hot Georgia Tech at home this weekend, and then their final game of the year is at Virginia.

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