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Feb
21
2016

ACC Bubble Analysis for February 21, 2016

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Call it revenge of the bottom half of the ACC week. They are no easy games in the ACC.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(4) Virginia (21-5) (10-4) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (52) William & Mary, * (11) West Virginia, * (2) Villanova, (78) Ohio State, * (20) California, * (22) Notre Dame,* (7) Miami, (96) Clemson, * (41) Syracuse, * (27) Louisville, (89) Long Beach State, * (45) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – (121) Virginia Tech

Notes –With upsets left and right, Virginia moves to the 1 line after beating NC State. It won’t be easy to stay there. This week is a game at Miami, and then UNC comes to Virginia with Gameday on Saturday.

(14) North Carolina (22-5) (11-3) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (69) Davidson, * (8) Maryland, (70) Kansas State, (77) UCLA, (79) Georgia Tech, * (41) Syracuse, (61) Temple, (64) Florida State, (96) Clemson, * (45) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – (115) Northern Iowa

Notes – UNC somehow let Duke beat at home last week. We thought UNC was in big trouble, and then they just destroyed a really good Miami team. Who’s the real North Carolina? If they win at NC State and UVA this, they’ll be back to a 1 seed.

(7) Miami (21-5) (10-4) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (30) Florida, * (16) Utah, (59) Butler, * (41) Syracuse, * (35) Princeton, * (48) Florida State, * (10) Duke, (92) College of Charleston, * (22) Notre Dame, * (45) Pittsburgh, (79) Georgia Tech, (64) Florida State, (64) Florida State

Bad Losses – (122) Northeastern, (104) NC State

Notes – Miami got a wakeup call when they blasted at North Carolina. With Virginia Monday, the Canes can get back on track. Louisville is also at home for Miami this week.

(10) Duke (20-7) (9-5) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (33) Indiana, (90) Siena, (57) Yale, (54) VCU, (88) Georgetown, (89) Long Beach State, (79) Georgia Tech, * (4) Virginia, * (27) Louisville, * (14) UNC

Bad Losses – None

Notes – A split at UNC and Louisville was about all you could ask for from Duke this week. They’ll take it. Reeling Florida State comes to Durham and then Duke heads to surging Pittsburgh late in the week.

(19) Notre Dame (18-8) (9-5) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (13) Iowa, (55) Stony Brook, * (10) Duke, (79) Georgia Tech, * (14) UNC, (96) Clemson, * (27) Louisville

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Where did the loss to Georgia Tech come from? Games at Wake Forest and Florida State are this week. It doesn’t matter who you play in the ACC road games are tough.

Bubble But In

(45) Pittsburgh (19-7) (8-6) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (69) Davidson, * (41) Syracuse, (79) Georgia Tech, * (22) Notre Dame, (64) Florida State, (98) Kent State

Bad Losses – (104) NC State

Notes – Pittsburgh took advantage of a game they maybe should have lost to Wake Forest by then going on the road at beating Syracuse. If Pitt can beat Louisville and Duke this week at home, that might be enough ensure the Panthers make the NCAAs.

(41) Syracuse (18-10) (8-7) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (26) Texas A&M, * (37) UCONN, (53) St. Bonaventure, * (10) Duke,  * (22) Notre Dame, (79) Georgia Tech, (64) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (209) St. Johns

Notes – Welcome back to the bubble Syracuse after losing to Louisville and Pittsburgh this week. The loss to fellow bubble team Pitt was very troubling for the Orange. Syracuse better beat NC State this week. The Orange have some nice non-conference wins and that helps.

Bubble But Out

(88) Clemson (16-11) (9-6)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (64) Florida State, * (41) Syracuse, * (27) Louisville, * (7) Miami, * (10) Duke, * (45) Pittsburgh, (79) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – * (171) UMass, * (215) Minnesota, * (121) Virginia Tech

Notes – Clemson just can’t put enough wins together to warrant entry into the field. The Tigers need to find a way to win 2 of their last 3 games to have a prayer of the NCAAs. A game at improving Georgia Tech looks much more difficult than it did a week ago.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(64) Florida State (16-11) (6-9)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (30) Florida, (54) VCU, * (4) Virginia, (96) Clemson, (76) Ohio

Bad Losses – None

Notes – FSU had a disastrous week. Losing at home to Georgia Tech crippled the Noles NCAA chances. Losing at Virginia Tech may have finished off them off. FSU must win at Duke and then beat Notre Dame at home to have any chance to make the field now.

(121) Virginia Tech (14-13) (6-8)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – * (4) Virginia, (79) Georgia Tech, (96) Clemson, (99) UAB

Bad Losses – * (302) Alabama State, (109) Northwestern

Notes – A .500 season in the ACC is within the Hokies reach. That would be a great year 2 for Coach Buzz Williams. It was a good win over FSU this past week. Winnable games at Wake Forest and Boston College are upcoming in the next few days.

(79) Georgia Tech (15-12) (5-9) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (4) Virginia, (54) VCU, (64) Florida State, *(22) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – (118) East Tennessee State, (121) Virginia Tech

Notes – Georgia Tech had a stunningly good week. First they went on the road and beat FSU, and then they took down a good Notre Dame team at home. It’s certainly a stretch but that’s the bubble off in the distance if Georgia Tech can beat Clemson and Boston College this week.

(104) NC State (14-13) (4-10)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (45) Pittsburgh, (81) LSU, * (7) Miami, (96) Clemson

Bad Losses – (121) Virginia Tech, (119) Wake Forest

Notes – Despite their record, NC State is a dangerous team. They took out Clemson this week at home after losing at Virginia earlier. They host UNC this week and then head to Syracuse.

(119) Wake Forest (11-16) (2-13) 

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins – (77) UCLA, (33) Indiana, (81) LSU

Bad Losses – (123) Richmond, (121) Virginia Tech, (104) NC State

Notes – Wake Forest has played really well at times against some good teams, but they just can’t get the wins. They beat BC Sunday night. Notre Dame and Virginia Tech are also at home this week.

(205) Boston College (7-20) (0-14)

Last 10 – (0-10)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (244) UMass Lowell, * (250) Santa Clara, (101) Penn State, (119) Wake Forest

Notes – Why do I think BC might be primed to win an ACC game soon? They’ve had some competitive games. Sunday night at Wake Forest wasn’t one of them. Virginia Tech at home, and Georgia Tech at home give the Eagles a chance for that first ACC win.

Post-Season Ban

(27) Louisville (21-6) (10-4)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (45) Pittsburgh, (64) Florida State, (79) Georgia Tech, * (14) UNC, (94) Grand Canyon, * (41) Syracuse

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Rick Pitino hasn’t let his team slip after their post-season ban.  The Cardinals beat both Duke and Syracuse this past week. There are roads games at Pittsburgh and Miami this week.

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