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Feb
14
2016

ACC Bubble Analysis for February 14, 2016

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Bubble teams better make their move now. Time is running out as we are just a month way from Selection Sunday.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(5) Virginia (20-5) (9-4) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (59) William & Mary, * (10) West Virginia, * (3) Villanova, (84) Ohio State, * (23) California, * (19) Notre Dame,* (11) Miami, (88) Clemson, * (39) Syracuse, * (29) Louisville, (89) Long Beach State, * (43) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – (121) Virginia Tech

Notes –Virginia took a tough loss at Duke Saturday, but they remain on the 2 seed line. This week is a home with NC State and then big one at Miami Saturday.

(9) North Carolina (21-4) (10-2) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (68) Davidson, * (7) Maryland, (72) Kansas State, (77) UCLA, (86) Georgia Tech, * (39) Syracuse, (56) Temple, * (48) Florida State, (88) Clemson, * (43) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – * (102) Northern Iowa

Notes – UNC was sloppy at BC, but played well at home in defeating Pittsburgh. UNC gets both Duke and Miami at home this week. Win both and North Carolina would be back in position for a 1 seed.

(11) Miami (20-4) (9-3) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (30) Florida, * (16) Utah, (64) Butler, * (39) Syracuse, * (42) Princeton, * (48) Florida State, * (17) Duke, (92) College of Charleston, * (19) Notre Dame, * (43) Pittsburgh, (86) Georgia Tech, * (48) Florida State

Bad Losses – (136) Northeastern, (107) NC State

Notes – Miami won a hard fought game at desperate FSU Sunday. This is a team capable making it to the Final 4. They host Virginia Tech and then travel UNC this week.

(17) Duke (19-6) (8-4) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (35) Indiana, (91) Siena, (62) Yale, (58) VCU, (80) Georgetown, (89) Long Beach State, (86) Georgia Tech, * (5) Virginia, * (29) Louisville

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Here comes hard charging Duke, that knocked off Louisville and Virginia at home this week. The head on the road for a couple of monster games at UNC and at Louisville.

(19) Notre Dame (18-7) (9-4) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (8) Iowa, (60) Stony Brook, * (17) Duke, (86) Georgia Tech, * (9) UNC, (88) Clemson

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Notre Dame is getting hot at the right time. They aren’t playing to get in the tournament anymore, they are playing for seeding. Their only game is at reeling Georgia Tech this week.

(39) Syracuse (18-8) (8-5) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (25) Texas A&M, * (41) UCONN, * (33) St. Bonaventure, * (23) Duke,  * (19) Notre Dame, (75) Georgia Tech, * (48) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (205) St. Johns

Notes – Good week for Syracuse getting wins over FSU and BC. If they can at least get split with Louisville and Pittsburgh, they stay in the field. They just can’t lose both.

Bubble But In

NONE

Bubble But Out

(48) Florida State (16-9) (6-7)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (22) Florida, * (41) VCU, * (5) Virginia, (93) Wake Forest, (83) Clemson

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Noles really really really needed to beat Miami Sunday. They didn’t and they are on the outside looking into the NCAAs this week. FSU gets Georgia Tech at home and then head to a dangerous road game at Virginia Tech. Winning both is an now an absolute must.

(43) Pittsburgh (17-7) (6-6) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (68) Davidson, * (39) Syracuse, (86) Georgia Tech, * (19) Notre Dame, * (48) Florida State

Bad Losses – (107) NC State

Notes – Pittsburgh is right on top of the bubble. I don’t have them in after losing three games in a row. They have Wake Forest at home and then a game at Syracuse this week.

(88) Clemson (15-10) (8-5)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (48) Florida State, * (39) Syracuse, * (29) Louisville, * (11) Miami, * (17) Duke, * (43) Pittsburgh, (86) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – * (181) UMass, * (239) Minnesota, * (121) Virginia Tech

Notes – I’m sticking by my rule. Clemson needs to finish 11-7 in the ACC to be on the bubble. That means 4 games over .500 in the ACC. Boston College is Wednesday, then a game at NC State. If the Tigers could get both that would be huge.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(121) Virginia Tech (13-12) (5-7)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – * (5) Virginia, (86) Georgia Tech, (88) Clemson, (99) UAB

Bad Losses – * (302) Alabama State, (110) Northwestern

Notes – Virginia Tech lost their only game this week to Virginia. They have a game at Miami then host FSU. The Hokies have a couple of more ACC wins in them.

(86) Georgia Tech (13-12) (3-9) 

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – * (5) Virginia, (58) VCU

Bad Losses – (142) East Tennessee State, (121) Virginia Tech

Notes – An extremely disappointing season in Atlanta continues. This week the Jackets head to FSU and then host Notre Dame. Brian Gregory is on his way to his 5th straight season with double digit ACC losses

(115) Wake Forest (10-15) (1-12) 

Last 10 – (0-10)

Good Wins – (77) UCLA, (35) Indiana, (73) LSU

Bad Losses – (120) Richmond, (121) Virginia Tech, (107) NC State

Notes – That’s 10 losses in a row for Wake Forest. Wake Forest fans can now start wondering if Danny Manning can turn things around at Wake Forest. This season has turned into a disaster. He’ll be here next year, and he better show some progress. A game at Pittsburgh, and then a home game with Boston College is next week.

(107) NC State (13-12) (3-9)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – * (43) Pittsburgh, (73) LSU, * (11) Miami

Bad Losses – (121) Virginia Tech

Notes – The Wolfpack beat Wake Forest this week. Would you make Cat Barber ACC player of the year? I think I would. A game at Virginia and then home game with Clemson are this week. They could cripple Clemson’s NCAA chances with a a win over the Tigers.

(199) Boston College (7-18) (0-12)

Last 10 – (0-10)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (247) UMass Lowell, * (263) Santa Clara, (109 Penn State

Notes – Boston College played surprisingly well in nearly knocking off UNC earlier in the week. They lost to Syracuse on Sunday. Games at Clemson and Wake Forest are this week.

Post-Season Ban

(29) Louisville (19-6) (8-4)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (43) Pittsburgh, * (48) Florida State, (86) Georgia Tech, * (9) UNC, (96) Grand Canyon

Bad Losses – None

Notes – To their credit Louisville is still playing hard despite the post-season ban. They lost a couple of hard fought games at Duke and Notre Dame this week. This week they get Syracuse and Duke at home.

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