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Feb
07
2016

ACC Bubble Analysis for February 7, 2016

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We have some major shifting in this week’s bubble analysis.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(5) Virginia (19-4) (8-3) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (37) William & Mary, * (11) West Virginia, * (1) Villanova, (84) Ohio State, * (34) California, * (29) Notre Dame,* (14) Miami, (83) Clemson, * (48) Syracuse, * (24) Louisville, (93) Wake Forest, (90) Long Beach State, * (44) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – (117) Virginia Tech

Notes – Virginia has really turned things on in the last 10 days. They are now playing the best basketball in the ACC, and moved up to a 2 seed on our NCAA projections this week. This week is revenge game with Virginia and huge game at Duke.

(9) North Carolina (19-4) (8-2) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (49) Davidson, * (4) Maryland, * (40) Kansas State, (73) UCLA, (75) Georgia Tech, * (48) Syracuse, (65) Temple, * (39) Florida State, (83) Clemson, (93) Wake Forest

Bad Losses – * (123) Northern Iowa

Notes – We thought this past week would prove just where UNC was at. After losses to Louisville and Notre Dame, we can safely say the Tar Heels are a very good team, but not an elite one right now. They need better guard play. At Boston College and Pittsburgh at home give UNC a chance to gain a couple of wins.

(14) Miami (18-4) (7-3) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (22) Florida, * (18) Utah, (68) Butler, * (48) Syracuse, (63) Princeton, * (39) Florida State, (93) Wake Forest, * (23) Duke, (89) College of Charleston, (29) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – (145) Northeastern, (106) NC State

Notes – Miami had a good week beating Notre Dame at home and Georgia Tech on the road. They get Pittsburgh at home, then head to FSU. The Canes can still make a run at the ACC regular season title.

(23) Duke (17-6) (6-4) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (55) Indiana, (88) Siena, (61) Yale, (93) Wake Forest, * (41) VCU, (72) Georgetown, (90) Long Beach State, (87) Buffalo, (75) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Blue Devils could see the bubble a week ago, but after beating NC State and Georgia Tech, they are safely in the Big Dance. Louisville and Virginia are at home this week. Winning both would be enormous, but a split will do.

(29) Notre Dame (16-7) (7-4) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (8) Iowa, (60) Stony Brook, * (23) Duke, (75) Georgia Tech, (93) Wake Forest, * (9) UNC

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Irish got a strong win over over UNC this past week. A tricky game at Clemson and home game with Louisville are this week. The Irish need no worse than a split.

Bubble But In

(39) Florida State (16-7) (6-5) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (22) Florida, * (41) VCU, * (5) Virginia, (93) Wake Forest, (83) Clemson

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Noles have now won 4 straight games to get on the right side of the bubble. Games at Syracuse and at home against Miami are this week. The Noles need to stay at .500 or better in the ACC or they will fall out of the NCAA field.

(44) Pittsburgh (17-5) (6-4) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (49) Davidson, * (48) Syracuse, (75) Georgia Tech, * (29) Notre Dame, * (39) Florida State

Bad Losses – (106) NC State

Notes – Pittsburgh is in trouble. They stay in the field this week, but played poorly in a home loss to Virginia. This week with games at Miami and at UNC, the Panthers will be out the field if they lose both.

(48) Syracuse (16-8) (6-5) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (17) Texas A&M, (52) UCONN, * (45) St. Bonaventure, (93) Wake Forest, * (23) Duke,  * (29) Notre Dame, (75) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – * (208) St. Johns

Notes – This is a critical week for the Orange. They get fellow bubble team FSU at home and then a game at Boston College. I would recommend winning both.

Bubble But Out

(83) Clemson (14-9) (7-4)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (39) Florida State, * (48) Syracuse, * (24) Louisville, * (14) Miami, * (23) Duke, * (44) Pittsburgh, (93) Wake Forest

Bad Losses – * (189) UMass, * (240) Minnesota, * (117) Virginia Tech

Notes – The Tigers are running out of time. The loss at Virginia Tech hurts. A sweep of Notre Dame and Georgia Tech is a must. That RPI needs to get into the 60s at least.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(117) Virginia Tech (13-11) (5-6)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (5) Virginia, (75) Georgia Tech, (93) Wake Forest, (83) Clemson, (95) UAB

Bad Losses – * (300) Alabama State, (109) Northwestern

Notes – On their home floor the Hokies are very dangerous as Clemson found out this past week. Tough game this week at Virginia.

(75) Georgia Tech (12-11) (2-8) 

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – * (5) Virginia, (91) Arkansas, * (41) VCU

Bad Losses – (122) East Tennessee State, (117) Virginia Tech

Notes – Brian Gregory moved his ACC record to 38 games under .500 with 2 more conference losses this week. Wake Forest is a chance at win this week. The Jackets also head to Clemson on Saturday.

(93) Wake Forest (10-13) (1-10) 

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins – (73) UCLA, (55) Indiana, (76) LSU, (91) Arkansas

Bad Losses – (127) Richmond, (117) Virginia Tech

Notes – I think it’s fair to ask now what happened to this team? I still like Danny Manning, I think, but more was expected from the Deacs in conference play. At Georgia Tech and at NC State are this week.

(106) NC State (12-12) (2-9)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – * (44) Pittsburgh, (76) LSU, * (14) Miami

Bad Losses – (117) Virginia Tech

Notes – Cat Barber has been really good the Wolfpack. That’s a positive. This week is Wake Forest at home.

(199) Boston College (7-16) (0-10)

Last 10 – (0-10)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (269) UMass Lowell, * (263) Santa Clara

Notes – Boston College is starting to approach being one of the worst basketball teams the ACC has ever seen. North Carolina and Syracuse are at home this week.

Post-Season Ban

(24) Louisville (19-4) (8-2)

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (93) Wake Forest, * (44) Pittsburgh, * (39) Florida State, (75) Georgia Tech, * (9) UNC

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville saw fit to give itself a post-season ban due to their on-going prostitution scandal. That said they can still play a major role in affecting participants in the NCAA tournament. This week are monster games at Duke and at Notre Dame.

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