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Jan
31
2016

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 31, 2016

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Some teams made major statements this week, find out who.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(7) North Carolina (19-2) (8-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – (53) Davidson, * (10) Maryland, * (50) Kansas State, (68) UCLA, (71) Georgia Tech, * (41) Syracuse, (80) Temple, * (44) Florida State, (89) Clemson, (78) Wake Forest, (91) NC State

Bad Losses – * (153) Northern Iowa

Notes – The easy part of the Tar Heel’s ACC schedule is over. With games at Louisville and Notre Dame this week, we’re going to find out if the Tar Heels are truly #1 seed material. Win both and I think they are #1 overall seed. Split and they’ll remain a 1, but lose both and they’ll drop from the 1 line.

(6) Virginia (17-4) (6-3) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (43) William & Mary, * (14) West Virginia, * (2) Villanova, (76) Ohio State, * (33) California, * (37) Notre Dame,* (16) Miami, (89) Clemson, * (41) Syracuse, * (26) Louisville, (78) Wake Forest, (90) Long Beach State

Bad Losses – (130) Virginia Tech

Notes – Virginia barely escaped a loss at Wake Forest, in a game they probably should have lost. The Hoos took advantage and followed up that win with one of their best performances of the season when they hammered Louisville on the road. When UVA is on, they can be really good. Beat Boston College and win at Pitt this week, and UVA could push for a 2 seed.

(16) Miami (16-4) (5-3) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (21) Florida, * (15) Utah, (70) Butler, * (41) Syracuse, (62) Princeton, * (44) Florida State, (78) Wake Forest, * (27) Duke, (95) College of Charleston

Bad Losses – (137) Northeastern

Notes – Miami looked great beating Duke this past week, but came out flat and played poorly in an ugly loss to NC State Saturday. With Pitt at home this week, and a game at Georgia Tech, there is a chance to right the ship and push that seed up.

(26) Louisville (17-4) (6-2) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (78) Wake Forest, * (32) Pittsburgh, * (44) Florida State, (71) Georgia Tech, (91) NC State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – What was that performance against Virginia Louisville? The Cardinals didn’t look on the same level as the Hoos in a home loss. Louisville gets another chance to prove their worth when they host North Carolina Monday. Beating Boston College on February 6th doesn’t prove much.

(27) Duke (15-6) (4-4) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (48) Indiana, (86) Siena, (82) Yale, (78) Wake Forest, * (31) VCU, (76) Georgetown, (91) NC State, (90) Long Beach State, (99) Buffalo

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke keeps gradually slipping toward the bubble. They loss at Miami wasn’t unexpected, but didn’t help. Duke sure could use a win at Georgia Tech, and win at home vs NC State this week to stop the downward trend.

(32) Pittsburgh (17-4) (6-3) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  (53) Davidson, * (41) Syracuse, (71) Georgia Tech, * (37) Notre Dame, * (44) Florida State, (84) Kent State, (93) Duquesne

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Pittsburgh is in the NCAA field, but needs some elite wins. Virginia at home the 6th gives them an opportunity for that. This past week there was a loss at Clemson and a win over Virginia Tech.

(37) Notre Dame (15-6) (6-3) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (8) Iowa, (54) Stony Brook, * (27) Duke, (71) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Notre Dame looks an awful lot like Pittsburgh. Good overall record, solid conference record, but not enough elite wins. The Irish do have the one outstanding win over Iowa. Huge week ahead for Notre Dame, with a game at Miami and then a home game with UNC.

Bubble But In

(41) Syracuse (15-8) (5-5) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (12) Texas A&M, (67) UCONN, (65) St. Bonaventure, (78) Wake Forest, * (27) Duke,  * (37) Notre Dame, (71) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – * (208) St. Johns

Notes – Good past week for Syracuse with wins over Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. They are back in the field this week. Virginia Tech is the only game this week. Win and they stay in, lose and the Cuse are out. The game is at Syracuse so I like the Orange’s chances.

Bubble But Out

(44) Florida State (14-7) (4-5) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (21) Florida, * (31) VCU, * (6) Virginia, (91) NC State, (89) Clemson, (94) Ohio

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Florida State needed a sweep of Boston College and Clemson, and that’s what they got. I don’t have the Noles in this week, but they are very close. There are quality OOC wins over Florida and VCU too. FSU has NC State and and goes on the road to Wake Forest this week. Win both and FSU is back in.

(89) Clemson (13-8) (6-3)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (44) Florida State, * (41) Syracuse, * (26) Louisville, * (16) Miami, * (27) Duke, * (32) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – * (190) UMass, * (216) Minnesota

Notes – Clemson has a whopping 6 top 50 RPI wins, but their RPI of 89 is just too high. Also I think Clemson has to finish 11-7 in the ACC to make the field. When they are at least 4 games over .500 in the ACC, that will put them in. Games at Wake Forest and Virginia Tech won’t be easy. Clemson needs a sweep to get back in. Losing both would be crushing.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(130) Virginia Tech (12-10) (4-5)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (6) Virginia, (71) Georgia Tech, (78) Wake Forest, (91) NC State

Bad Losses – * (311) Alabama State, (113) Northwestern

Notes – The Hokies are trending in the right direction overall. Buzz Williams has done a solid job, but the ACC losses are starting to mount. The Hokies have lost 4 ACC games in a row. This week there is a game at Syracuse and then the Hokies host Clemson on Saturday.

(71) Georgia Tech (12-9) (2-6) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (6) Virginia, (87) Arkansas, * (31) VCU, (93) Duquesne, (91) NC State

Bad Losses – (135) East Tennessee State, (130) Virginia Tech

Notes – The Yellow Jackets got a surprising win at NC State, and had they been able to hold on at Syracuse things would have got interesting. This team has some players and I expect another upset or two at some point. They just happen to have a coach that is on the hotseat. The Jackets get both Duke and Miami at home this week.

(78) Wake Forest (10-11) (1-8) 

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – * (68) UCLA, * (48) Indiana, (83) LSU, (91) NC State, (87) Arkansas

Bad Losses – (110) Richmond, (130) Virginia Tech

Notes – Wake Forest suffered a heartbreaking loss to Virginia on a last second score. They also lost to Notre Dame this past week. I still think the Deacs have enough pieces to win some more ACC games. This week Wake Forest gets Clemson and FSU at home. I think they will win one of those.

(91) NC State (12-10) (2-7)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – * (32) Pittsburgh, (83) LSU, * (16) Miami

Bad Losses – (130) Virginia Tech

Notes – The Wolfpack lost at home to Georgia Tech and beat Miami at home? Go figure… The win over Miami was a very solid performance. This week there are games at Florida State and at Duke.

(208) Boston College (7-14) (0-8)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (277) UMass Lowell, * (250) Santa Clara, (107) Penn State

Notes – It is a very real possibility that Boston College doesn’t win an ACC game this year. It won’t be this week, that’s for sure with games at Virginia and at Louisville.

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