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Jan
24
2016

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 24, 2015

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We are starting to gain a little more clarity on who are the NCAA quality teams in the ACC.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(7) North Carolina (18-2) (7-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (49) Davidson, * (9) Maryland, * (50) Kansas State, * (48) UCLA, (67) Georgia Tech, (71) Syracuse, (91) Temple, (52) Florida State, (97) Clemson, (69) Wake Forest, (96) NC State

Bad Losses – * (151) Northern Iowa

Notes – UNC got a test from improving Virginia Tech Sunday. They also beat Wake Forest. Take your pick between North Carolina and Oklahoma as the best team in America. The Heels are winning even without Marcus Paige’s best basketball. Boston College at home this week is  a layup.

(15) Miami (15-3) (4-2) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (19) Florida, * (23) Utah, * (47) Butler, (51) Syracuse, (65) Princeton, (52) Florida State, (69) Wake Forest

Bad Losses – (124) Northeastern

Notes – The Canes can get into 2 seed territory if they beat both Duke and win at NC State. Miami has all the tools to make a deep NCAA tournament run – Good coaching, solid guards, size. This is a strong team.

(12) Virginia (15-4) (4-3) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (46) William & Mary, * (14) West Virginia, * (2) Villanova, (76) Ohio State, * (39) California, * (36) Notre Dame,* (15) Miami, (97) Clemson, (51) Syracuse

Bad Losses – (107) Virginia Tech

Notes – It’s hard to get a gauge on just how good Virginia is. Is this a team that can reach the Final 4? They beat Clemson this week, have some great wins, but have looked shaky on the road at times. They beat Syracuse Sunday, and that moves them up to a 4 seed. They play at Wake Forest and Louisville this week.

(16) Louisville (16-3) (5-1) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (69) Wake Forest, * (34) Pittsburgh, (52) Florida State, (67) Georgia Tech, (96) NC State, (98) Grand Canyon

Bad Losses – None

Notes – I’m getting close to putting Louisville into the top 4, but I need to see an elite win. There’s Virginia on the 30th. A game at Virginia Tech on the 27th before that will not be easy.

(27) Duke (15-5) (4-3) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (40) Indiana, (93) Siena, (92) Yale, (69) Wake Forest, (72) VCU, (74) Georgetown, (96) NC State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Following a home loss to Syracuse Monday, Duke was against a wall. Lose at NC State, and they would have been on the bubble. The Blue Devils prevailed, and stay in position for the NCAAs. A game at Miami will be very difficult this week.

(34) Pittsburgh (16-3) (5-2) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (49) Davidson, (51) Syracuse, (67) Georgia Tech, * (36) Notre Dame, (52) Florida State, (73) Kent State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Weird week for Pitt. They play horribly at home and get thumped by NC State, then win at Florida State. There’s a tricky game at Clemson this week, then the Panthers host Virginia Tech.

(36) Notre Dame (14-5) (5-2) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (10) Iowa, (68) Stony Brook, * (27) Duke, (67) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Notre Dame is solidly in the field, but they need more quality wins to move up. This week there is a game at Syracuse, and then reeling Wake Forest comes to South Bend.

Bubble But In

None

Bubble But Out

(51) Syracuse (13-8) (3-5) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (8) Texas A&M, (58) UCONN, (78) St. Bonaventure, (67) Wake Forest, * (27) Duke

Bad Losses – * (202) St. Johns

Notes – Syracuse has worked themselves back on to the bubble with a win at Duke.  They lost to UVA Sunday in a hard fought game. They are just barely on the wrong side of the bubble, but they are close. There are home games with Notre Dame and Georgia Tech this week. Win both and they are back in. The Cuse need to stay around .500 in the ACC. The OOC win over Texas A&M looks better each week.

(52) Florida State (12-7) (2-5) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (19) Florida, (56) VCU, * (12) Virginia, (96) NC State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Remember last week when I said FSU needed a split with Louisville and Pittsburgh? Well they didn’t get it. The loss at home to Pittsburgh was a crushing loss to the Nole’s NCAA hopes. If FSU doesn’t sweep BC and Clemson this week, that probably finishes off FSU’s tourney chances.

(96) Clemson (12-7) (5-2)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (57) Florida State, (51) Syracuse, * (16) Louisville, * (15) Miami, * (27) Duke

Bad Losses – * (174) UMass, * (223) Minnesota

Notes – Clemson slips off the bubble after losing at Virginia. The Tigers took so many losses before the ACC season started, that I think they need to finish 11-7 in the ACC to make the NCAAs. Sweep Pitt at home and win at FSU, and the Tigers are back in. If they split, they are close but out. Losing both would be a devastating result.

(107) Virginia Tech (12-8) (4-3)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (12) Virginia, (67) Georgia Tech, (69) Wake Forest, (96) NC State

Bad Losses – * (288) Alabama State, (109) Northwestern

Notes – Virginia Tech was 7 points from beating Notre Dame and UNC this week. The Hokies are probably still a year or two away from making the NCAAs, but Buzz Williams is clearly getting things turned around. This is a very dangerous team that gets Louisville at home and goes to Pittsburgh this week. Oh they aren’t done pulling off upsets this year.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(67) Georgia Tech (11-8) (1-5) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (12) Virginia, (84) Tennessee, (56) VCU, (100) Duquesne

Bad Losses – (103) East Tennessee State, (107) Virginia Tech

Notes – The Yellow Jackets just can’t close out tight games. There was another loss like that to Louisville. That’s the sign of a competitive but poorly coached team which is all you need to know about the Brian Gregory era in Atlanta. Gregory’s days as head coach are numbered. He’s lost 56 of his first 76 ACC games. There are road games at NC State and Syracuse this week.

(69) Wake Forest (10-9) (1-6) 

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – * (48) UCLA, * (40) Indiana, (90) LSU, (96) NC State

Bad Losses – (113) Richmond, (107) Virginia Tech

Notes – Wake Forest has completely fallen apart during the conference portion of their season. Considering some of their non-conference wins that has been a surprise. This week doesn’t get any any easier with games against Virginia at home, and on the road at Notre Dame.

(96) NC State (11-9) (1-6)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (34) Pittsburgh, (90) LSU

Bad Losses – (107) Virginia Tech

Notes – NC State came up with their best performance of the year when they won 78-61 at Pittsburgh. If they could have beat Duke at home too, it could have turned the season around. Instead they dropped to 1-6 in the ACC. A pillow fight with Georgia Tech is this week in Raleigh, then Wolfpack host Miami.

(208) Boston College (7-12) (0-6)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (267) UMass Lowell, * (272) Santa Clara

Notes – Boston College is just playing out the string on this season. FSU at home might be a chance at BC’s first ACC win. Forget an ACC win coming at UNC later in the week.

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