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Jan
17
2016

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 17, 2015

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Find out which ACC teams join Boston College with virtually no chance at making NCAAs.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(5) North Carolina (16-2) (5-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (37) Davidson, * (13) Maryland, (60) Kansas State, (59) UCLA, (55) Georgia Tech, (71) Syracuse, (87) Temple, (65) Florida State, (88) Clemson

Bad Losses – (142) Northern Iowa

Notes – The Tar Heels keep cruising along. They beat NC State this past week. Upcoming is a game with Wake Forest Wednesday, and a suddenly dangerous game at Virginia Tech Sunday.

(19) Miami (13-3) (2-2) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (18) Florida, * (34) Utah, * (45) Butler, (71) Syracuse, (86) Princeton, (65) Florida State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Rough week for Miami losing at Virginia and surging Clemson. This week should be a little easier with a road game at BC, and then Wake Forest down in Miami.

(13) Virginia (13-4) (2-3) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (53) William & Mary, * (14) West Virginia, * (1) Villanova, (69) Ohio State, * (49) California, * (39) Notre Dame,* (19) Miami

Bad Losses – (102) Virginia Tech

Notes – Good win for Virginia over Miami this week, but suddenly the Hoos can’t win on the road. They went down after losing to FSU. They lost on the road to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech the week before. Homes games with Clemson and Syracuse are this week.

(24) Louisville (14-3) (3-1) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (73) Wake Forest, * (22) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Cardinals won their only game this past week beating Pittsburgh. They host Florida State and go to Georgia Tech this week. Win both and the Cardinals might warrant top 4 consideration.

(21) Duke (14-4) (3-2) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (50) Indiana, (97) Siena, (92) Yale, (73) Wake Forest, (72) VCU

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke went down to Clemson and Notre Dame last week. One could be forgiven, but not both. This team is really missing Amile Jefferson inside. This week is a big home game with Syracuse then a road game at NC State.

(22) Pittsburgh (15-2) (4-1) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (37) Davidson, (71) Syracuse, (55) Georgia Tech, * (39) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Pittsburgh split their games this week losing at Louisville, but beating Boston College. They host NC State on the 19th, and then go to FSU on the 23rd.

(39) Notre Dame (12-5) (3-2) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (10) Iowa, (79) Stony Brook, * (21) Duke, (55) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Notre Dame got just the kind of week they needed beating Georgia Tech and Duke. This week are Virginia Tech and Boston College at home. That’s a good chance to really improve Notre Dame’s seeding.

Bubble But In

(65) Florida State (12-5) (2-3) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (18) Florida, (72) VCU, (13) Virginia

Bad Losses – None

Notes – FSU got a critical win at NC State, and then took care of Virginia at home to get on the right side of the bubble. To keep the momentum going, they can’t do worse than a split with Louisville and Pittsburgh this upcoming week.

(88) Clemson (12-6) (5-1) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (65) Florida State, (71) Syracuse, * (24) Louisville, * (19) Miami, * (21) Duke

Bad Losses – * (149) UMass, * (215) Minnesota

Notes – Clemson’s RPI is still high, but early in the year that number can change some. If we’re talking one of the best 68 teams, how could you deny Clemson this week? There were wins over Miami and Duke. A tough game with Virginia is this week.

Bubble But Out

(71) Syracuse (12-7) (2-4) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (8) Texas A&M, (84) UCONN, (61) St. Bonaventure, (73) Wake Forest

Bad Losses – (110) Wisconsin, * (198) St. Johns, (104) Georgetown

Notes – The Orange aren’t dead yet, after sweeping BC and getting a solid win at Wake Forest. It’s a tough week ahead with road games at Duke and Virginia.

(73) Wake Forest (10-7) (1-4) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (59) UCLA, (50) Indiana

Bad Losses – (112) Richmond, (102) Virginia Tech

Notes – A disastrous week for Wake Forest. Losing at Virginia Tech and then at home against Syracuse has the Deacs in a difficult position. Games at UNC and Virginia could finish off Wake Forest’s NCAA hopes.

(55) Georgia Tech (11-7) (1-4) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (9) Virginia, (85) Tennessee, (72) VCU

Bad Losses – (124) East Tennessee State, (102) Virginia

Notes – Georgia Tech lost at Notre Dame which is ok. Then the Yellow Jackets lost at home at Virginia Tech which was not after blowing a 10 point lead with 4 1/2 minutes. That’s the kind of loss that gets hot seat coaches like Brian Gregory fired. They host Louisville on Saturday.

(102) Virginia Tech (12-6) (4-1)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (9) Virginia, (55) Georgia Tech, (73) Wake Forest, (98) UAB

Bad Losses – * (282) Alabama State, (117) Northwestern

Notes – Virginia Tech even being near the bubble speak volumes of the great job Buzz Williams is doing there. If they could somehow get a split this week Notre Dame and UNC, they might really have a shot at NCAAs. I’m serious.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(114) NC State (10-8) (0-5)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –(89) Northeastern

Bad Losses – (102) Virginia Tech

Notes – NC State lost two more games this past week, and is the most disappointing team in the ACC. With games against Pittsburgh and Duke this week, the Wolfpack could be looking at an 0-7 ACC start.

(205) Boston College (7-10) (0-4)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (284) UMass Lowell, * (260) Santa Clara

Notes – This team is so bad. With Miami and Notre Dame this week, I don’t see a chance at BC’s first ACC win.

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