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Jan
10
2016

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 10, 2015

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The ACC just proved this week how difficult it is to win on the road. Find out who made a move and who didn’t.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(5) North Carolina (15-2) (4-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (32) Davidson, * (12) Maryland, (63) Kansas State, * (46) UCLA, * (41) Georgia Tech, (80) Syracuse, (81) Temple, (88) Florida State

Bad Losses – (103) Northern Iowa

Notes – The Tar Heels have won 8 in a row. This week they won road games at FSU and Syracuse. I think that is enough to move UNC to the 1 line. Saturday UNC hosts NC State.

(14) Miami (13-1) (2-0) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (29) Florida, * (21) Utah, * (36) Butler,  (66) College of Charleston, (80) Syracuse, (85) Princeton, (88) Florida State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Miami has a great looking resume. This week they took care of FSU. If Miami can win at Virginia and Clemson this week, they would warrant 1 seed consideration. A split would drop them no lower than a 3.

(9) Duke (14-2) (3-0) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (68) Indiana, (82) Siena, (91) Long Beach State, (83) Yale, (62) Wake Forest

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke is surging at the moment. They looked good with wins over Virginia Tech and Wake Forest this week. Duke goes to rapidly improving Clemson this on Wednesday, and then Notre Dame comes to Duke on Saturday.

(17) Pittsburgh (14-1) (3-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (32) Davidson, (54) Syracuse, * (41) Georgia Tech, (58) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – None

Notes – We believe you Panthers. This is a real good team. A game at Louisville on the 14th is very intriguing. They host reeling Boston College on the 16th.

(10) Virginia (12-3) (1-2) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (55) William & Mary, * (28) West Virginia, (91) Long Beach State, * (3) Villanova, (59) Ohio State, * (48) California, (58) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – (130) Virginia Tech

Notes – I warned you that Virginia couldn’t overlook games with Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech this week. I don’t think they did, but lost both with some very uninspired play. That have to right the ship quickly with a game at home with Miami on the 12th, and then on the road at desperate FSU on Sunday.

(20) Louisville (13-3) (2-1) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (62) Wake Forest, (73) Eastern Michigan, (95) NC State

Bad Losses – * (163) Clemson

Notes – Louisville got a nice win at NC State, but went ice cold from the perimeter in an ugly loss at Clemson. Louisville hosts Pittsburgh on the 14th in what should be an entertaining game.

Bubble But In

(61) Wake Forest (10-5) (1-2) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (46) UCLA, (68) Indiana, (95) NC State

Bad Losses – (110) Richmond

Notes – Beating NC State was a must Sunday night. On the road at Virginia Tech on the 13th won’t be easy, and then the Deacs host Syracuse on the 16th. Winning both is not out of the question.

Bubble But Out

(41) Georgia Tech (11-5) (1-2) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (10) Virginia, (94) Tennessee

Bad Losses – (134) East Tennessee State.

Notes – The Yellow Jackets computer numbers are good, and beating Virginia this week was gigantic. Getting a split with Notre Dame and Virginia Tech is an absolute must this week. Every team from here on out, except Boston College is still capable of playing themselves into NCAA tournament position.

(58) Notre Dame (10-5) (1-2) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (16) Iowa, (79) Stony Brook

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Irish are hanging by a thread. They really could have used that win over Pitt. This is critical week for the Irish, they can’t lose to both Georgia Tech and Duke. If they do they are out next week too.

(80) Syracuse (10-7) (0-4) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (13) Texas A&M, (57) UCONN, (77) St. Bonaventure

Bad Losses – (111) Wisconsin, * (183) St. Johns, * (163) Clemson

Notes – Syracuse is in big big trouble, after dropping homes games to Clemson and UNC. It’s almost a must that they sweep Boston College and Wake Forest this week.

(95) NC State (10-6) (0-3)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –(70) Northeastern

Bad Losses – (130) Virginia Tech

Notes – NC State lost Wake Forest Sunday night. Their start has really put them in a hole. They can’t do worse than a split with FSU and UNC this week. This team is in trouble.

(88) Florida State (10-5) (0-3) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (29) Florida, (96) Ohio

Bad Losses – * (163) Clemson

Notes – FSU needs to make a move now. They lost to UNC and Miami this week. A game at NC State might be an early elimination game Wednsday, then they host Virginia on Sunday.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(130) Virginia Tech (10-6) (2-1)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (95) NC State, * (10) Virginia

Bad Losses – * (242) Alabama State, (108) Northwestern

Notes – Virginia Teck took out Virginia at home this week. They are proving very dangerous at home this year. If somehow Virginia Tech could somehow beat Wake Forest and Georgia Tech this week, I’ll move them up to the bubble line because of a 4-1 ACC mark.

(163) Clemson (10-6) (3-1)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (88) Florida State, (80) Syracuse, * (20) Louisville

Bad Losses – * (147) UMass, * (193) Minnesota

Notes – Quite a week for Clemson. They won at Clemson and beat Louisville at home. The computer numbers aren’t good, but the 3-1 ACC mark is. Could they get a split with Duke and Miami at home this week?

(208) Boston College (7-8) (0-2)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (282) UMass Lowell, * (269) Santa Clara

Notes – Every team in the ACC can say they have NCAA hopes at this point. Anybody that loses to this Boston College team this year will take a crippling loss. Syracuse and Pitt will try to avoid being BC’s first ACC victim.

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