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Jan
03
2016

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 3, 2015

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It is the new year. Time to start setting yourself for the NCAA and conference tournaments!

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(4) Virginia (12-1) (1-0) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – (64) William & Mary, * (23) West Virginia, (79) Long Beach State, * (2) Villanova, (75) Ohio State, (50) California, (63) Notre Dame, (92) Oakland

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia is the strongest 2 seed. I’m very close to moving them to a 1. They had a good win over Notre Dame. This week are tricky road games with Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. These are games the Hoos can’t overlook.

(13) North Carolina (13-2) (2-0) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (46) Davidson, (97) Northwestern, * (14) Maryland, (66) Kansas State, (59) UCLA, (74) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – If Heels can win at FSU and Syracuse this week, they will make a strong push for 1 seed.

(15) Miami (12-1) (1-0) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (18) Florida, * (24) Utah, * (39) Butler, * (49) College of Charleston, (54) Syracuse

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Florida State is the Canes only game this week. Can I have 3 teams from the ACC on the 2 line next week?

(17) Duke (12-2) (1-0) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (78) Indiana, (95) Siena, (79) Long Beach State, (98) Yale, (100) Georgetown

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Tough to move Duke higher than a 5 without some higher quality wins. A game at Wake Forest could be a real test this week. Duke also will host Virginia Tech.

(35) Louisville (12-2) (1-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (53) Wake Forest

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Cardinals got a hard fought win over Wake Forest Sunday. Games at NC State and Clemson won’t be easy this week.

(43) Pittsburgh (12-1) (1-0) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (60) Kent State, * (46) Davidson, (54) Syracuse

Bad Losses – None

Notes –Pittsburgh got a nice win over Syracuse this past week. They are solidly in the field for now. Georgia Tech goes to Pittsburgh on the 6th, and then the Panthers head to Notre Dame on the 9th.

Bubble But In

(63) Notre Dame (9-4) (0-1) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (16) Iowa, (62) Stony Brook

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Irish are still on the bubble after losing at UVA. No shame in that loss. I’ll move them off the bubble if they win at Boston College this week, and beat Pittsburgh home. Don’t lose either Irish.

(53) Wake Forest (9-4) (0-1) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (59) UCLA, (78) Indiana

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Wake Forest got a decent road win at LSU this past week. They lost at Louisville Sunday, but they will be a tough out all year. Beat Duke and NC State this week and the Deacs are off the bubble. A split keeps them in, but on the bubble.

Bubble But Out

(54) Syracuse (10-5) (0-2) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (19) Texas A&M, (65) UCONN, (77) St. Bonaventure

Bad Losses – (107) Wisconsin, * (201) St. Johns

Notes – It was a tough start to the ACC schedule with games at Pitt and Miami. The Cuse lost both. Clemson and UNC are this week. A win over UNC would do wonders for Syracuse.

(74) Georgia Tech (10-4) (0-1)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (136) East Tennessee State.

Notes – The Jackets nearly won at UNC, which would have put  them in the field this week. If Georgia Tech could steal a win at Pitt or beat UVA at home, that would be huge.

(90) NC State (10-4) (0-1)

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –(61) Northeastern

Bad Losses – (142) Virginia Tech

Notes – That was a crushing loss at Virginia Tech this past week. A split against Louisville and Wake Forest is an absolute must this week.

(81) Florida State (10-3) (0-1)

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (18) Florida

Bad Losses – * (198) Clemson

Notes – Weird week for FSU. They pick up a huge road win at Florida, but took an ugly loss at Clemson. That keeps them out this week. They host UNC, and then head to Miami later in the week. The Noles really need no worse than a split.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(142) Virginia Tech (9-5) (1-0)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (90) NC State

Bad Losses – * (181) Alabama State

Notes – Didn’t I tell you last week, that the Hokies would beat either West Virginia or NC State at home this week? The win at home against NC State proved how tough an out the Hokies will be especially in Blacksburg. This week they host Virginia, then go to Duke. The Hoos better be paying attention.

(198) Clemson (8-6) (1-1)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (81) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (171) UMass, * (194) Minnesota

Notes – The Tiger played surprisingly well in knocking off FSU this past week. They play at Syracuse Tuesday then host Louisville on Sunday.

(205) Boston College (7-7) (0-1)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (292) UMass Lowell, * (286) Santa Clara

Notes – BC welcomes Notre Dame to Boston this week.

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