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Dec
27
2015

ACC Bubble Analysis for December 27, 2015

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This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

It is the last Bubble Analysis before the new year. Which teams are in good position heading into the new year and which are not?

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(3) North Carolina (10-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (21) Davidson, (84) Northwestern, * (32) Maryland, (55) Kansas State, (61) UCLA

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Expect UNC to win their next 3 games with UNC-Greensboro, Clemson, and Georgia Tech – all at home this week.

(10) Virginia (9-1) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (51) William & Mary, * (49) West Virginia, (87) Long Beach State, * (5) Villanova, (80) Ohio State, (87) California

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Hoos really got pushed by California, but ended up with a top 100 win that I think will hold up. Oakland and Notre Dame are this week.

(16) Miami (10-1) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (11) Florida, * (31) Utah, * (23) Butler, * (46) College of Charleston

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Princeton and Syracuse are this week, following a strong November and December for Miami.

(17) Pittsburgh (10-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (63) Detroit, (62) Kent State, * (21) Davidson, (94) Morehead State

Bad Losses – None

Notes –Syracuse and MD-E Shore are this week. Pittsburgh despite good computer numbers can’t afford many upset losses.

(30) Louisville (11-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (68) Eastern Michigan, (85) Western Kentucky

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville is 6 points from the number 1 team in the country. They lost close games at Michigan State and Kentucky. The Cardinals are a for sure NCAA team, but without some better wins it’s hard to move them up. Wake Forest is this week.

(28) Duke (9-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (78) Indiana, (93) Siena

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke has the same problem as Louisville. Just not a lot to point to in resume wins, but they will definitely make the Big Dance. Elon, LBSU, and Boston College should all be wins this week.

Bubble But In

(44) Notre Dame (8-3) (0-0) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (37) Iowa

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Ok Notre Dame you are flirting with the bubble. Liberty is this week and so is Virginia. Can the Irish pick up a crucial win at Virginia?

(64) Syracuse (10-3) (0-0) – Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (14) Texas A&M

Bad Losses – (145) Georgetown, * (204) St. Johns

Notes – If Syracuse could a steal a road win at Pitt or Miami this week, that would be a start to the season they would take.

(65) Wake Forest (8-3) (0-0) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (61) UCLA, (78) Indiana

Bad Losses – None

Notes – If Wake Forest could have got that win over Xavier this past week… They need to win at LSU or Louisville this week to stay in the field.

Bubble But Out

(111) Georgia Tech (9-3) (0-0)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (190) East Tennessee State.

Notes – Duquesne will be the Jackets last non-conference game before heading to UNC this week.

(102) NC State (9-3) (0-0)

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –None

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Wolfpack need to get on a roll during the ACC season. NC State can’t afford to lose to either Northeastern or Virginia Tech this week.

(113) Florida State (9-2) (0-0)

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – None

Notes – How would a win at Florida look for FSU this week? If they win that game and at Clemson, put them in.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(160) Virginia Tech (8-4) (0-0)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (150) Alabama State

Notes – West Virginia and NC State are at home this week for the Hokies. I get the feeling they are going to pull an upset in one of them.

(214) Boston College (6-6) (0-0)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (248) UMass Lowell, (300) Santa Clara

Notes – New Hampshire and Duke are this week. I see one win there.

(257) Clemson (7-5) (0-0)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (169) UMass, * (213) Minnesota

Notes – Clemson looked terrible in a loss at Georgia. The Tigers don’t play defense. It is that simple. It’s going to a long season in TigerTown.

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