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Dec
20
2015

ACC Bubble Analysis for December 20, 2015

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This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

It is only December, but some teams have already picked up quality wins, that will help in March.

As conference play is nearing, who did the best work in the early part of the season?

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(2) North Carolina (9-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (15) Davidson,  (74) Northwestern, * (39) Maryland, * (47) Kansas State, (51) UCLA

Bad Losses – None

Notes – North Carolina beat one of the hottest teams in the nation in UCLA. When the Tar Heels are on they can play as well as anyone in the country. Appalachian State is Monday.

(13) Virginia (9-1) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (71) William & Mary, (53) West Virginia, (86) Long Beach State, * (3) Villanova

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia beat Villanova for one country’s better wins of the year. That moves them up to a 2 seed this week. A decent California team is this week on Tuesday.

(21) Miami (9-1) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (4) Florida,  * (20) Utah, * (34) Butler, College of Charleston

Bad Losses – * (118) Northeastern

Notes – Other than the loss to Northeastern, you could put Miami’s resume against just about anyone. LaSalle is this week.

(23) Louisville (9-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (59) Eastern Michigan

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville beat both Kennesaw State and Western Kentucky this week, but it will tough moving higher than 4 until they pick up some stronger wins. Oh look Kentucky is on the schedule this week along with Utah Valley and UMKC. Win and all 3 and the Cards will move into the top 4.

(19) Pittsburgh (9-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (37) Detroit, (58) Kent State, * (15) Davidson

Bad Losses –  None

Notes – The Panthers may be the quietest 9-1 team in the country, but this is a good group. Western Carolina is this week.

(38) Duke (9-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (79) Indiana

Bad Losses  – None

Notes – Duke is a little beat up without Amile Jefferson, and that showed in a loss to Utah. The Blue Devils are off this week.

Bubble But In

(75) Wake Forest (8-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (51) UCLA, (79) Indiana

Bad Losses –  None

Notes – Why shouldn’t Wake Forest be in the NCAA field right now? They haven’t lost since November. If they beat Xavier this week, they will be solidly in the Dance.

(50) Notre Dame (7-3) (0-0) Projected Seed 11 

Last 10 – (7-2)

Good Wins – * (35) Iowa

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Notre Dame’s loss to Indiana keeps them on the bubble. Monday is Youngstown St.

(62) Syracuse (8-3) (0-0) – Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (16) Texas A&M, (89) Connecticut, (87) St. Bonaventure

Bad Losses –  (112) Wisconsin, (166) St. Johns, (179) St. Johnson

Notes – I am keeping Syracuse in the field but just barely. Montana St. and Texas Southern are this week.

Bubble But Out

(83) Georgia Tech (7-3) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (187) East Tennessee State.

Notes – Georgia Tech got a nice win VCU this week, but couldn’t follow it up with a win at Georgia. SE Louisiana and Colgate are this week, and the Jackets obviously can’t lose either.

(93) NC State (8-3) (0-0)  

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –None

Bad Losses – None

Notes – NC State narrowly avoided a disastrous loss to High Point this past week. They also beat Missouri for a nice 4 game winning streak. UNC-Greensboro is this week.

(133) Florida State (8-2) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – None

Notes – I think FSU is a NCAA caliber team, but they don’t have the wins yet. I think they will be there in the end. Charleston Southern is this week.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(164) Virginia Tech (8-3) (0-0)

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (120) Alabama State

Notes – The Hokies are also on a 4 game winning streak. St. Jospeh’s will be a good test this week.

(263) Clemson (7-4) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (178) UMass, * (182) Minnesota

Notes – Clemson has missed on every chance to for a decent win this year. A 6 point loss to South Carolina at home is just the latest example. A game at Georgia Tuesday won’t be easy.

(276) Boston College (5-6) (0-0)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (280) UMass Lowell, (286) Santa Clara

Notes – Fordham gives BC a chance to reach .500 for the year.

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