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Dec
13
2015

ACC Bubble Analysis for December 13, 2015

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This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

It is only December, but some teams have already picked up quality wins, that will help in March.

As conference play is nearing, who did the best work in the early part of the season?

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(2) North Carolina (7-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (7-2)

Good Wins – * (6) Davidson,  * (31) Northwestern, * (35) Maryland, * (48) Kansas State, (63) Temple

Bad Losses – None

Notes – North Carolina has one of the best wins in the country this year over Maryland. Tulane is this week, and the Heels must face a red hot UCLA team that beat Kentucky on Saturday. The Texas loss on Saturday, where the Heels didn’t show much poise down the stretch keeps them from a top 2 seed for now.

(9) Duke (8-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (8-1)

Good Wins – (67) Indiana, (81) Utah State

Bad Losses  – None

Notes – Good start to the year for Duke with their only loss being to Kentucky. Georgia Southern is this week. Utah is also this week which is a good out of conference matchup.

(38) Virginia (8-1) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (8-1)

Good Wins – (69) William & Mary, (59) West Virginia, (83) Long Beach State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia picked up a nice OOC win over West Virginia. Saturday Virginia gets a good Villanova team at home. If the Hoos win, I’ll move them up to a 2 seed.

(10) Louisville (7-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (7-1)

Good Wins – (74) Eastern Michigan, (98) Grand Canyon

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville has been better than expected.  Kennesaw State and Western Kentucky are this week. The Cardinal’s only loss was a near win at top-ranked Michigan State.

(32) Miami (8-1) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (8-1)

Good Wins – * (8) Florida,  * (29) Utah, * (37) Butler

Bad Losses – * (147) Northeastern

Notes – Solid early season resume for Miami other than the loss to Northeastern. Charleston is the only game on the schedule this week for the Canes.

(19) Pittsburgh (8-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (7-1)

Good Wins – * (46) Detroit, (77) Kent State

Bad Losses –  None

Notes – Pittsburgh have avoided any bad losses during the early season. They don’t have any games scheduled this week.

Bubble But In

(50) Notre Dame (7-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 10 

Last 10 – (5-2)

Good Wins – * (25) Iowa, (91) Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Loyola-Chicago is on the 13th and Indiana the 19th. Win both and the Irish come off the bubble.

(52) Wake Forest (6-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (0-0)

Good Wins – * (30) UCLA, (87) Indiana

Bad Losses –  None

Notes – Wake Forest has a couple wins over UCLA and Indiana, that I think will look better and better as the season continues. That UCLA win will resonate all year. UNC-Greensboro and Coastal Carolina are this week.

(61) Syracuse (7-3) (0-0) – Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (45) Texas A&M, (97) Connecticut

Bad Losses –  (101) Wisconsin, (146) St. Johns

Notes – I can see Syracuse being off and on the bubble all year. It wasn’t a good loss Sunday to St. Johns. Cornell is up next this week.

Bubble But Out

(73) Georgia Tech (6-2) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (0-0)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (145) East Tennessee State.

Notes – Too early to say if Georgia Tech can make a legit run at the NCAAs, but I’ve seen enough to say there is a chance. If they can get a split with VCU and Georgia, they will warrant consideration. Win both and they are in next week.

(82) Florida State (6-2) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (0-0)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Noles haven’t done enough get into the NCAAs so far this year. Mississippi State is this week. This team has some talent, and is capable of making the Big Dance.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(187) NC State (6-3) (0-0)  

Last 10 – (6-3)

Good Wins –None

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Too many early season losses for the Wolpack to even be on the bubble this week, and that RPI is just to high. Even though the RPI will sort it itself out the next couple of months, that number has to improve. High Point and Missouri are up next this week.

(168) Virginia Tech (7-3) (0-0)

Last 10 – (0-0)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (121) Alabama State

Notes – Hokies have 1 bad loss this year, but for a re-building team it is not a bad start. Grambling is on the 19th.

(244) Clemson (6-3) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (0-0)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (109) UMass, * (162) Minnesota

Notes – Clemson doesn’t have anything approaching a quality win right now. Presbyterian is on the schedule this week. South Carolina is actually a big home game for the Tigers on Friday. The 1 point loss to Alabama was very disappointing.

(289) Boston College (4-6) (0-0)

Last 10 – (3-6)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (114) Penn State, (206) UMass Lowell, (278) Santa Clara

Notes – There is only one team in the ACC, that I think is truly awful and here we are with Boston College. Delaware is this week.

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