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Mar
08
2015

ACC Bubble Analysis for March 8, 2015 #ACCTourney Edition

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This will be our last ACC Bubble Analysis as a week from today is selection Sunday! The ACC Tournament is next week, so we are going to project seeds based on ACC tournament performance. For all things ACC Tournament related check out TheACC.com’s ACC Tournament Page. 

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(5) Virginia (28-2) (16-2) 

0 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 2

1 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 1

2 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 1

Win ACC Tournament– Projected Seed 1

Notes – If Virginia loses their first ACC Tournament game they deserve a 1 seed, but it could get iffy if Villanova, Wisconsin, and Duke win their conference tournaments.

(4) Duke (28-3) (15-3)

0 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 2

1 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 1

2 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 1

Win ACC Tournament – Projected Seed 1

Notes – Duke hasn’t lost in over a month, and they are in great shape for a 1 seed, but like Virginia they could lose their 1 seed if they are not careful. If Virginia, Wisconsin, and Villanova win their conference tourneys and Duke goes winless, they could end up a 2 seed.

(25) Notre Dame 25-5 (13-5) 

0 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 5

1 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 4

2 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 3

Win ACC Tournament – Projected Seed 2

Notes – With a player like Jerian Grant who can carry a team, the Irish are definitely a threat to win the ACC Tournament. They can’t reach the 1 seed line, but they can get awfully close.

(17) Louisville (24-7) (12-6)

0 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 5

1 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 4

2 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 3

Win ACC Tournament – Projected Seed 2

Notes – Louisville got a monster win over Virginia Saturday. Even if the Cavaliers were a bit depleted without Justin Anderson, that is still the Hoos first loss without him. The Cardinals if they win the ACC Tournament have a chance to move all they way up to a 2 seed.

(12) North Carolina (21-10) (11-7) Projected Seed 5

0 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 7

1 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 6

2 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 5

3 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 4

Win ACC Tournament – Projected Seed 3

Notes – The Heels are a notch below the top 4 teams in the ACC, but they will make the Big Dance easily. If they can go on a magical run, they can potentially earn a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

(46) NC State (19-12) (10-8)  

0 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 11

1 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 10

2 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 8

3 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 6

Win ACC Tournament – Projected Seed 5

Notes – NC State has played themselves into lock status for the NCAAs. The ACC tournament is all about seeding for them. If there is a darkhorse in the ACC Tournament, take a look at NC State. They are capable of beating anyone in the field. Could they really end up a 5 seed with ACC Tournament title? It’s not out of the question.

Bubble But In

(62) Miami (20-11) (10-8)

0 ACC Tournament Wins – Out

1 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 11

2 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 10

3 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 8

Win ACC Tournament – Projected Seed 6

Notes – If Selection Sunday were today they would be in. They are the one ACC team squarely on the bubble. I think 1 win gets them, but 2 would lock things up, just don’t go winless Canes.

Bubble But Out

(70) Pittsburgh (19-13) (8-10) 

0 ACC Tournament Wins – Out

1 ACC Tournament Wins – Out

2 ACC Tournament Wins – Out

3 ACC Tournament Wins – Projected Seed 12

Win ACC Tournament – Projected Seed 9

Notes – The Panthers really made a mess of things in the last week for them. If they get to the ACC Title game, I think they could get a serious look. It would likely mean beating 3 NCAA Tournament bound teams. It’s a stretch, better win it all.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

We lump everyone else together at this point. You better win the ACC Tournament. That’s the only way these teams have any chance to get into the NCAA Tournament.

(94) Clemson (16-14) (8-10) 

Win ACC Tournament – Projected Seed 10

Notes – Clemson can still make the NIT with a couple of wins.

(127) Georgia Tech (12-18) (3-15) 

Win ACC Tournament – Projected Seed 14

Notes – The only drama concerning Georgia Tech in this tournament is how long before the search committee for a new coach is announced. Their best player Marcus George-Hunt won’t be available for the tournament.

(163) Boston College (12-18) (4-14)

Win ACC Tournament – Projected Seed 14

Notes – Boston College is quietly playing some solid basketball. If there is a team from Tuesday that can win pull a couple of upsets, Boston College could do it with a scorer like Olivier Hanlan.

(118) Florida State (16-15) (8-10) 

Win ACC Tournament – Projected Seed 10

Notes – Is FSU the ACC’s most disappointing team this year? The ACC tournament is a chance to salvage something out of the season.

(125) Wake Forest (13-18) (5-13)

Win ACC Tournament – Projected Seed 14

Notes – There will be better days ahead for Wake Forest. Don’t sleep on the Deacs in this tournament.

(233) Virginia Tech (10-21) (2-16)

Win ACC Tournament – Projected Seed 14

Notes – Virginia’s doesn’t quite have the personal to make a run in the ACC Tournament, but remember they did come within an eyelash of beating Duke recently.

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