Quantcast

«

»

Feb
22
2015

ACC Bubble Analysis for February 22, 2015

bubble5

 

Somebody is surging out of the middle of the pack in the ACC… It’s is those Pitt Panthers. Was it enough to make the field this week?

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(3) Virginia (25-1) (13-1) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (12) VCU, * (11) Maryland, (92) George Washington, (55) Harvard, (51) NC State, * (27) Notre Dame, (57) Davidson, (73) LaSalle, (75) Rutgers (67) Miami, (82) Clemson, (68) LaSalle, * (13) UNC, * (19) Louisville, * (49) NC State, * (37) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia took care of FSU Sunday night and next week is a tricky game at Wake Forest and a home game with Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers remain very much on track for a #1 seed.

(4) Duke (24-3) (11-3) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (6) Wisconsin, * (31) Michigan St., *(49) Stanford,  * (28) Temple, (86) UCONN, (52) Wofford, * (19) Louisville, * (44) St. Johns, * (37) Pittsburgh, (64) Toledo, * (3) Virginia, * (27) Notre Dame, (95) Georgia Tech, (75) Syracuse, * (13) North Carolina, (82) Clemson

Bad Losses  – None

Notes – Duke went 2-0 this past with wins over UNC, and Clemson. Duke is also in great position for a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. There is a game at Virginia Tech, that the Blue Devils can’t overlook, and then they host Syracuse.

(27) Notre Dame 24-4 (12-3) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (31) Michigan St, * (39) UMASS, * (13) UNC,  (67) Miami, (95) Georgia Tech, (59) Purdue, (51) NC State, * (4) Duke, (82) Clemson

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Notre Dame looked solid with a couple of double digit wins over Wake Forest and Boston College. The Irish host Syracuse this week.

(13) North Carolina (19-8) (9-5) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (57) Davidson, * (36) Ohio State, * (19) Louisville, (76) Florida, * (43) UCLA, (51) NC State, (82) Clemson, (75) Syracuse

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Heels played an outstanding 2nd half at Duke, and should have won the game, but they collapsed late. That said it was a good effort for the Heels, and they played well running past Georgia Tech Saturday. NC State and a game at Miami are this week.

(19) Louisville (21-6) (9-5) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (36) Ohio State (97) Long Beach State, * (34) Indiana, (82) Clemson, (90) Minnesota, * (37) Pittsburgh, * (13) North Carolina, (67) Miami, * (37) Pittsburgh, (67) Miami

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville lost at Syracuse this week, and barely survived Miami at home. This team is not playing with a lot of confidence right now. Games at Georgia Tech and FSU this week could be troublesome if the Cardinals are not paying attention.

Bubble But In

(37) Pittsburgh (18-10) (7-7) Projected Seed 10  

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (27) Notre Dame, (75) Syracuse, * (13) North Carolina, (75) Syracuse

Bad Losses –  * (169) Hawaii, * (223) Virginia Tech

Notes – Pittsburgh lost at Virginia, but they got a huge win at Syracuse this week. Pitt still lacks quality wins, but they deserve to be in the field at this point. Boston College and a game at Wake Forest are this week. I think the Panthers need to get to 22 wins to make the Big Dance.

(51) NC State (16-11) (7-7) Projected Seed 11 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (40) Boise St., * (37) Pittsburgh, (85) Tennessee, * (4) Duke, (78) Richmond, * (19) Louisville, (72) Louisiana Tech

Bad Losses – * (127) Wake Forest

Notes – NC State took care Virginia Tech this week. They are in the field this week but barely. The Wolfpack go on  the road this week against BC and UNC. A split is a must.

(61) Miami (17-10) (7-7) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (46) Illinois, (76) Florida, * (4) Duke, (51) North Carolina State, (75) Syracuse,(82) Clemson

Bad Losses – * (154) Eastern Kentucky,  (117) Florida State, (107) Georgia Tech, (127) Wake Forest

Notes – Miami nearly got a monster win at Louisville, but lost 55-53. They did beat Virginia Tech this week. They host FSU and UNC this week. They can’t do worse than a split, and a sweep would would do wonders.

Bubble But Out

(82) Clemson (15-12) (7-8) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (54) LSU, * (20) Arkansas, (37) Pittsburgh, (75) Syracuse,(51) NC State, (94) High Point

Bad Losses – * (208) Winthrop, * (172) Gardner-Webb, (100) South Carolina, (149) Rutgers,(117) Florida State, (107) Georgia Tech

Notes – Clemson’s 0-2 week at Georgia Tech and Duke have pretty much finished the Tigers NCAA hopes for now. If they lose to Georgia Tech at home this week, their chances are completely finished.

(75) Syracuse (17-10) (8-6) – Not Eligible for Post-Season 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (61) Iowa, * (19) Louisville,(66) Louisiana Tech

Bad Losses –  NONE

Notes – Syracuse put a dent in Louisville’s resume by beating the Cardinals, but they lost at home to Pittsburgh. The schedule gets really tough this week with games at Notre Dame and at Duke.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(107) Georgia Tech (12-15) (3-12) 

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (63) Rhode Island, * (38) Georgia, (67) Miami

Bad Losses – * (219) USC-Upstate, (143) Marquette, (127) Wake Forest, * (164) Boston College, (117) Florida State, * (223) Virginia Tech

Notes – Georgia Tech was crushed at UNC this past week. The host Louisville and head to Clemson this week. I just can’t see how Brian Gregory survives this season.

(164) Boston College (9-17) (1-13)

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins – * (22) Providence, (55) Harvard

Bad Losses – * (182) USC, (117) FSU

Notes – BC hasn’t won since January 25. That’s all you need to know. A game at Pittsburgh is this week, and then BC hosts NC State. BC with a win could really damage either’s NCAA hopes.

(117) Florida State (15-13) (7-8) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (76) Florida, (82) Clemson, (67) Miami

Bad Losses – (192) Mississippi St.,(109) Nebraska

Notes – Florida State beat Boston College this week, and pushed Virginia on the road but lost. This isn’t a bad team, but they just have so many early losses. A game at Miami is this week. then the Noles are at home to Louisville. The Noles are capable of winning either.

(127) Wake Forest (12-15) (4-10)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (67) Miami, * (51) NC State, (78) Richmond

Bad Losses –  (225) Delaware St., (117) Florida State, (107) Georgia Tech

Notes – Wake Forest lost their only game this week at Notre Dame, no surprise there… This is a dangerous team especially at home, and they get Virginia and Pittsburgh at Joel Coliseum this week.

(223) Virginia Tech (10-17) (2-12)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (37) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – * (273) Appalachian St., (136) Radford, (117) FSU, (127) Wake Forest, (117) FSU, (106) Penn State

Notes – A rough week for the Hokies as they took a couple of double digit road losses. I feel like Virginia Tech has another ACC win in them, but probably not this week with Duke and Virginia on the schedule.

Become a fan of the ACC on Facebook and follow the ACC on Twitter 


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>