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Feb
16
2015

ACC Bubble Analysis for February 16, 2015

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Sorry a day late on the bubble analysis, but it’s ready now.

Where did your favorite ACC team end up?

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(3) Virginia (24-1) (10-1) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (12) VCU, * (10) Maryland, (74) George Washington, (51) Harvard, * (49) NC State, * (27) Notre Dame, (62) Davidson, (75) LaSalle, (75) Rutgers (64) Miami, (80) Clemson, (68) LaSalle, * (11) UNC, * (14) Louisville, (95) Georgia Tech, * (49) NC State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia is struggling a bit scoring without injured Justin Anderson, but they are still winning. They had two close wins over Wake Forest and NC State this past week. This week are home games with Pittsburgh and FSU. The Hoos were solid in getting the win over the Pittsburgh already this week.

(5) Duke (22-3) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (6) Wisconsin, * (36) Michigan St., *(50) Stanford,  * (31) Temple, (88) UCONN, * (43) Wofford, * (14) Louisville, * (41) St. Johns, (52) Pittsburgh, (85) Toledo, * (3) Virginia, * (27) Notre Dame, (95) Georgia Tech, (70) Syracuse

Bad Losses  - None

Notes – Duke navigated a couple of tricky road games this past week beating FSU and Syracuse. They host arch rival UNC and Clemson this week.

(14) Louisville (20-5) (7-3) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (34) Ohio State (97) Long Beach State, * (29) Indiana, (99) Western Kentucky, (80) Clemson, (76) Minnesota, (52) Pittsburgh, * (11) North Carolina, (64) Miami, (52) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville beat NC State this week, but then oops they dropped a home game with NC State out of nowhere. A game at Syracuse and then a home game with Miami are this week.

(27) Notre Dame 22-4 (10-3) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (36) Michigan St, * (39) UMASS, * (11) UNC,  (64) Miami, (95) Georgia Tech, (66) Purdue, * (49) NC State, * (5) Duke, (95) Georgia Tech, (80) Clemson

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Notre Dame had only 1 game this week. They beat a decent Clemson team on the road. Wake Forest at home and BC on the road are this week. If Notre Dame sweeps, they may start pushing for a 3 seed.

(11) North Carolina (18-7) (8-4) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (62) Davidson, * (34) Ohio State, * (14) Louisville, (67) Florida, * (38) UCLA, * (49) NC State, (80) Clemson, (70) Syracuse

Bad Losses – None

Notes –The Heels are slowly losing ground in the ACC and in their bracket projections. They have lost 3 of their last 4, and got whooped at Pittsburgh. A big road game is this week at Duke, and then what should be a breather at home against Georgia Tech.

Bubble But In

(61) Miami (16-9) (6-6) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (45) Illinois, (77) Florida, * (5) Duke, * (49) North Carolina State, (70) Syracuse, (92) Akron, (80) Clemson

Bad Losses – * (149) Eastern Kentucky,  (118) Florida State, (116) Georgia Tech, (128) Wake Forest

Notes – Miami was moments away from being out of the field as they nearly lost at BC Monday. They did lose at Wake Forest which is another bad loss. Miami needs a good week with games against Virginia and at Louisville. Hard charging NC State and Pittsburgh are ready to grab Miami’s NCAA spot.

Bubble But Out

(49) NC State (15-11) (6-7) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (42) Boise St., (52) Pittsburgh, (83) Tennessee, * (5) Duke, (76) Richmond, (77) Louisiana Tech, * (14) Louisville, (72) Louisiana Tech

Bad Losses – * (128) Wake Forest

Notes – The Wolfpack went to Louisville with their season on the brink, and they came away with a win that may have saved their season. I like NC State’s RPI, but they have to get to .500 in the ACC before I put them in the field. This week is a home game with Virginia Tech.

(52) Pittsburgh (17-10) (6-7) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (27) Notre Dame, (70) Syracuse, * (11) North Carolina

Bad Losses –  * (176) Hawaii, * (220) Virginia Tech

Notes – Pittsburgh got an important split with UNC and Louisville this past week. The win over UNC was the Panthers best game of the season. Monday is a game at Virginia then later in the week is a game at Syracuse. Pitt needs no worse than a split, and they’ve already lost at Virginia.

(80) Clemson (15-11) (7-7) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (53) LSU, * (18) Arkansas, (52) Pittsburgh, (70) Syracuse,* (49) NC State

Bad Losses – * (219) Winthrop, (166) Gardner-Webb, (104) South Carolina, (138) Rutgers,(118) Florida State

Notes – Clemson had Notre Dame on the ropes this past week. They win that game, and I would have put them in the field. Winning at Georgia Tech is an absolute must this week, because after that is a game at Duke. A split keeps Clemson on the NCAA radar, and means winning at Duke after a discouraging Monday loss to Georgia Tech. Those NCAA chances are fading fast.

(70) Syracuse (16-9) (7-5) – Not Eligible for Post-Season 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (56) Iowa, (97) Long Beach State,(72) Louisiana Tech

Bad Losses –  NONE

Notes – Syracuse won at Boston College, but lost to Duke at home this past week. They can really mess things up this week. They host Louisville and Pittsburgh. They could hurt the Cardinals seeding or really damage Pitt’s NCAA chances with a win.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(116) Georgia Tech (12-14) (3-11) 

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (67) Rhode Island, * (32) Georgia, (64) Miami

Bad Losses – * (231) USC-Upstate, (142) Marquette, (128) Wake Forest, (136) Boston College, (118) Florida State, * (220) Virginia Tech

Notes – Georgia Tech lost two close games to Virginia Tech and FSU – pretty typical week for Georgia Tech. This week is Clemson and a game at UNC. I don’t think the Jackets can get to 4 ACC wins, but winning Monday night against Clemson gives them a shot at it.

(145) Boston College (9-15) (1-11)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – * (230) Providence, (51) Harvard

Bad Losses – (173) USC

Notes – BC has now lost 5 straight games after going down to Syracuse and Miami this week at home. A game at FSU is this week. BC may end up being the ACC’s last place team without a big of a surge soon.

(118) Florida State (14-12) (6-7) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (77) Florida, (80) Clemson, (64) Miami

Bad Losses – (178) Mississippi St., (110) Northeastern, (113) Nebraska

Notes – Florida State nearly pulled off a home upset of Duke, and they did beat Georgia Tech on the road. The NIT is still a possibility for the Noles. This week is BC at home then a game at UVA. I think FSU would take a split here.

(128) Wake Forest (12-14) (4-9)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (64) Miami, * (49) NC State

Bad Losses –  (214) Delaware St., (118) Florida State, (116) Georgia Tech

Notes – Wake Forest continues to make strides. They beat Miami at home this week, then very nearly knocked off Virginia at Virginia. Even without Justin Anderson for the Cavaliers, that would have been impressive. A tough game at Notre Dame is this week.

(220) Virginia Tech (10-15) (2-10)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (52) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – * (279) Appalachian St., (135) Radford, (118) FSU, (128) Wake Forest, (118) FSU

Notes – The Hokies got a home win over Georgia Tech this week, but as expected by a young team followed up a win with a poor performance at Clemson in getting routed. This week are games at NCAA desperate Miami and NC State. Just be patient Hokie fans, Virginia Tech is doing some good things this year.

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