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Feb
08
2015

ACC Bubble Analysis for February 8, 2015

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Did any teams make a move this week? Syracuse is out of the picture due to their self-imposed post-season ban…

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(3) Virginia (21-1) (9-1) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (9) VCU, * (14) Maryland, * (48) George Washington, (58) Harvard, (59) NC State, * (29) Notre Dame, (73) Davidson, (75) LaSalle, (75) Rutgers (61) Miami, (69) Clemson, (90) LaSalle, * (10) UNC, * (13) Louisville, (95) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia had a couple of difficult games at UNC and Louisville and came away with 2 strong wins. One concern is that one of the Hoos leading players Justin Anderson will miss 4-6 weeks with a fractured finger. For Virginia the schedule eases up though. This week is a tricky game at desperate NC State, then Wake Forest comes to town.

(4) Duke (20-3) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (6) Wisconsin, * (50) Michigan St., *(42) Stanford,  * (36) Temple, (98) UCONN, * (40) Wofford, * (13) Louisville, (51) St. Johns, (57) Pittsburgh, (90) Toledo, * (3) Virginia, * (29) Notre Dame, (95) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses  – None

Notes – Duke was a bit sloppy against Georgia Tech at home in a 6 point win, but they played brilliantly beating Notre Dame 90-60 on Saturday. This week are a couple of road games. Duke heads to FSU and Syracuse. The Blue Devils are in good position for 1 seed with a strong finish to the season.

(13) Louisville (19-4) (7-3) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (38) Ohio State (81) Long Beach State, * (32) Indiana, (99) Western Kentucky, (69) Clemson, (86) Minnesota, (57) Pittsburgh, * (10) North Carolina, (61) Miami

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville picked up a nice win at Miami, and there is no shame losing at Virginia by 5. Pittsburgh and NC State come to Louisville this week.

(10) North Carolina (18-6) (8-3) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (92) North Carolina Central, (73) Davidson, * (38) Ohio State, * (13) Louisville, (67) Florida, * (45) UCLA, * (59) NC State, (69) Clemson, (70) Syracuse, (78) William & Mary

Bad Losses – None

Notes –UNC couldn’t get the win at home over Virginia, but they did win at Boston College. For the Heels to hold on this 4 seed, they’ll need to win at Pittsburgh this week.

(29) Notre Dame 21-4 (9-3) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (50) Michigan St, (52) UMASS, * (10) UNC,  (61) Miami, (95) Georgia Tech, (71) Purdue, (59) NC State, * (4) Duke, (95) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Notre Dame beat BC this week, but were routed at Duke by 30. The Irish are still a good team, they just ran into Duke at the wrong place and at the wrong time. Notre Dame heads to Clemson in their only game this week Tuesday.

Bubble But In

(61) Miami (15-8) (5-5) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (47) Illinois, (67) Florida, * (4) Duke, * (59) North Carolina State, (70) Syracuse, (92) Akron, (69) Clemson

Bad Losses – * (163) Eastern Kentucky,  (128) Florida State

Notes – At the moment Miami is in the field by the skin of their teeth. They couldn’t beat Louisville at home, but beating Clemson to even their ACC record keeps the Canes on the right side of the bubble. Next week Miami can’t overlook road games at Wake Forest and Boston College.

Bubble But Out

(57) Pittsburgh (16-8) (5-5) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (95) Georgai Tech, * (29) Notre Dame, (70) Syracuse

Bad Losses –  * (191) Hawaii, * (230) Virginia Tech

Notes – Don’t look now, but Pittsburgh can see the bubble. After a 2-0 week with wins over Byrant and Syracuse, Pitt has a chance to play themselves into the field. The RPI is decent, but there is a lack of quality wins. If the Panthers can get a split with Louisville and UNC this week, they will warrant a serious look.

(69) Clemson (14-9) (6-5) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (49) LSU, * (25) Arkansas, (57) Pittsburgh, (70) Syracuse,* (59) NC State

Bad Losses – * (244) Winthrop, (130) Gardner-Webb, (103) South Carolina, (114) Rutgers,(128) Florida State

Notes – Clemson has gotten themselves into the NCAA discussion. I said last week Clemson needed split on the road at FSU and at Miami. They got that and it keeps them in the NCAA discussion. This week Notre Dame provides a huge opportunity at a quality win, and beating Virginia Tech Saturday is a must.

(59) NC State (14-10) (5-6) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (46) Boise St., (57) Pittsburgh, (89) Tennessee, * (4) Duke, (76) Richmond, (77) Louisiana Tech, (95) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – * (153) Wake Forest

Notes –The Wolfpack are in big trouble. They are already at 10 losses, and it’s very rare for at-large team to make the NCAA field with more than 13 losses. Losing at Wake Forest this week was a crushing loss. NC State hosts Virginia this week then heads to Louisville. A split is an absolute must.

(70) Syracuse (15-8) (6-4) – Not Eligible for Post-Season 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (44) Iowa, (81) Long Beach State,(77) Louisiana Tech, (95) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses –  (104) California

Notes – The have declared themselves ineligible for post-season play this year. We will still include discussion of them though as their results still affect the other teams. This week they got by Virginia Tech 72-70, but lost at Pittsburgh. The Cuse host both Duke and Louisville this week, and they are capable of pulling the upset against either.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(95) Georgia Tech (11-12) (2-9) 

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (66) Rhode Island, * (23) Georgia, (61) Miami

Bad Losses – * (209) USC-Upstate, (115) Marquette, (153) Wake Forest, (136) Boston College

Notes – Look I’ll be the first to admit, I’m not high on head coach Brian Gregory, but he’s got his team now playing reasonably well. They lost by just 6 at Duke, and then cruised over Wake Forest Saturday. They play at Virginia Tech Monday then host FSU Saturday.

(136) Boston College (9-13) (1-9)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – * (20) Providence, (58) Harvard, (95) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – (176) USC

Notes – As I expected BC went 0-2 this week against Notre Dame and UNC. They host Syracuse and Miami in the week ahead.

(128) Florida State (13-11) (5-6) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (67) Florida, (69) Clemson, (61) Miami

Bad Losses – (177) Mississippi St., (120) Northeastern, (102) Nebraska

Notes – Losing to Clemson at home may have killed any chance of the Noles making a late season run. They did win at Virginia Tech to keep their NIT hopes alive. This week FSU hosts Duke, and then heads to Georgia Tech. What if they win both? Is the bubble back in play?

(153) Wake Forest (11-13) (3-8)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (76) Richmond, (59) NC State, (95) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses –  (231) Delaware St., (128) Florida State

Notes – A team like Wake Forest is going to have ups and downs. This past week a perfect example. Wake Forest beat NC State, but struggled losing at Georgia Tech. This is a dangerous team at home, and they host Miami this week. They also head to Virginia.

(230) Virginia Tech (9-14) (1-9)

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins – (57) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – * (263) Appalachian St., (138) Radford, (128) FSU, (101) Penn State, (153) Wake Forest, (128) FSU

Notes – The Hokies have lost their last 3 games by a total of 13 points. This week was 2 point loss at Syracuse, that honestly Virginia Tech should have won. Then there was 73-65 loss to FSU. Georgia Tech at home is a winnable game, then Virginia Tech plays at Clemson Saturday.

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