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Jan
25
2015

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 25, 2015

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Who is going to be the ACC’s 7th and possibly 8th NCAA teams? You better make your move now, if you are on the bubble.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(3) Virginia (19-0) (7-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (4) VCU, * (14) Maryland, (51) George Washington, (78) Harvard, * (38) NC State, * (40) Notre Dame, * (41) Davidson, (99) LaSalle, (75) Rutgers * (36) Miami, (98) Clemson, (81) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia had no problem with Georgia Tech, but got a real test from feisty Virginia Tech on the road this week. Now the schedule gets ramped up… Duke comes to Charlottesville on Saturday in one of the most anticipated games of the year.

(9) Duke (17-2) (4-2) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (8) Wisconsin, * (43) Michigan St., *(31) Stanford,  (54) Temple, (80) UCONN, * (45) Wofford, * (25) Louisville, (44) St. Johns, (64) Pittsburgh, (99) Toledo

Bad Losses  – None

Notes – Duke appears to have righted the ship. This week was solid home win over Pitt, and good win on the road at St. Johns. This week the Blue Devils head to Notre Dame and Virginia. Oh boy just a couple of top 10 road games.

(12) North Carolina (16-4) (6-1) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (92) North Carolina Central, * (41) Davidson, (53) Ohio State, * (25) Louisville, (85) Florida, (76) UCLA, * (38) NC State, (98) Clemson

Bad Losses – NONE

Notes – UNC’s 16 point win at Wake Forest is better than it appears. Then it was blue collar effort to beat FSU. This week it is desperate Syracuse and then a game at Louisville. That’s going to be fun.

(40) Notre Dame 19-2 (7-1) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (43) Michigan St, (73) UMASS, (81) Georgia Tech, * (12) UNC, * (36) Miami, (81) Georgia Tech, (96) Purdue, (38) NC State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Notre Dame continues to look like one of the best 15 teams in the country. The won by 25 at Virginia Tech this week. Ask Virginia how tough it is to play there, and then pulled out a tough win at NC State.

(25) Louisville (16-3) (4-2) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (53) Ohio State (59) Long Beach State, * (32) Indiana, (68) Western Kentucky, (98) Clemson, (90) Minnesota, (64) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – None

Notes –Louisville got a nice road win at Pittsburgh Sunday. This week they head to Boston College and then host UNC in a huge game.

(36) Miami (14-5) (4-2) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (58) Illinois, (85) Florida, * (9) Duke, * (38) North Carolina State, (67) Syracuse

Bad Losses – * (172) Eastern Kentucky

Notes – Miami continued it’s momentum beating a pretty good NC State team at home, and then knocking of Syracuse on the road. Georgia Tech won’t pose any problems, but FSU could be a tricky road game this week.

Bubble But In

(38) NC State (13-8) (4-4) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (65) Boise St., (64) Pittsburgh, (56) Tennessee, * (9) Duke, (82) Richmond, (100) Louisiana Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – NC State let one slip away at home against Notre Dame at home. They played decently but lost at Miami too. The Wolfpack’s RPI is solid, but they are right on the bubble now. Thankfully for the Wolfpack they get a week, where they must get and should get a sweep. They get Clemson in Raleigh then go Georgia Tech. Lose either and NC State falls out of the field.

Bubble But Out

(67) Syracuse (14-6) (5-2) 

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (52) Iowa, (59) Long Beach State, (81) Georgia Tech, (100) Louisiana Tech

Bad Losses –  (132) California

Notes – Syracuse dropped a critical home to Miami this week. The win over BC doesn’t make up for that. The Orange’s profile is NIT all the way. Monday is a game at UNC, then Syracuse hosts Virginia Tech. The Orange need to start picking up some top 50 wins.

(64) Pittsburgh (13-7) (3-4) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (81) Georgia Tech, (79) Kansas State

Bad Losses –  (199) Hawaii

Notes – Pitt’s resume is more NIT than even Syracuse’s. The Panthers really needed a home win over Louisville, but couldn’t get it. Pittsburgh is a good basketball program, but this year it looks like no NCAAs. With a winnable game at Virginia Tech, and a home game with Notre Dame, a sweep is an absolute must.

(98) Clemson (11-8) (3-4) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (37) LSU, * (21) Arkansas, (64) Pittsburgh, (67) Syracuse, (93) High Point

Bad Losses – * (275) Winthrop, (120) Gardner-Webb, (118) South Carolina, (102) Rutgers, * (135) Florida State

Notes – Clemson barely stays on the bubble, but they sure missed a chance to make more noise when they lost to FSU at home. Time is running out on the Tigers to make a move. This week is a tough game at NC State  then BC at home.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(81) Georgia Tech (9-10) (0-7) 

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (70) Rhode Island, * (24) Georgia

Bad Losses – * (239) USC-Upstate, (117) Marquette, (138) Wake Forest, (137) Boston College

Notes – A disastrous season in Atlanta continues with losses this week to Virginia where Georgia Tech scored just 28 points, and then a home loss to Boston College. With Miami and NC State this week, it doesn’t look good for that first ACC win. Right now the best thing you can say about Georgia Tech is they are the “bad loss” for rival Georgia.

(137) Boston College (9-9) (1-5)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (19) Providence, (95) New Mexico, (78) Harvard, (81) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – (149) USC

Notes – Last week I said BC could steak one of their road games at Syracuse or Georgia Tech. They nearly pulled it off at Syracuse, and got it done at Georgia Tech. I think BC can throw a scare into Louisville at home this week. Saturday they head to Clemson.

(135) Florida State (10-10) (2-5) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (85) Florida, (98) Clemson

Bad Losses – (208) Mississippi St.

Notes – Florida State is suddenly playing some decent basketball. They won at Clemson, and then pushed UNC at the Dean Dome. They get Wake Forest at home, and then host Miami. Miami better be ready.

(138) Wake Forest (9-11) (1-6)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (81) Georgia Tech, (82) Richmond

Bad Losses –  (198) Delaware St.

Notes – Deac fans just have to patient. There are positive signs there. Wake Forest lost to both UNC and Clemson this week. A game at FSU, and then Virginia Tech is at home.

(223) Virginia Tech (8-10) (0-6)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (253) Appalachian St., * (171) Radford, (135) FSU

Notes – The Hokies get clobbered at home by Notre Dame, but then nearly pulled off one of the upsets of the year. They had Virginia on the ropes at home, and lost 50-47. This was one of the first games where you felt like the Hokies started to take on the identity of Buzz Williams, tough and resilient. Good things are in store eventually in Blacksburg. A home game with Pittsburgh is this week and then on to Wake Forest.

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