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Jan
11
2015

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 11, 2015

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We’ve got some shakeup in this week’s bubble analysis, find out who moved up and who moved down.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(3) Virginia (15-0) (3-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (5) VCU, * (17) Maryland, *(39) George Washington, * (41) Harvard, * (48) NC State, * (50) Notre Dame, (51) Davidson, (99) LaSalle, (87) Rutgers (76) Miami

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia has whopping 10 top 100 wins. They picked up a very impressive road win at Notre Dame Saturday. This is an elite team that is on the short list of legit national title contenders. The schedule eases up this week, with Clemson and Boston College on the schedule.

(5) Duke (14-1) (2-1) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (7) Wisconsin, * (36) Michigan St., *(44) Stanford, *(34) Temple, (63) UCONN, * (30) Wofford

Bad Losses  – None

Notes – Duke got beat this week by an inspired NC State team. The Blue Devils have to re-group as they host Miami, and then play Louisville on Saturday. If the Blue Devils win at Louisville, I would move them back to a 1 seed.

(24) Louisville (14-2) (2-1) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (55) Ohio State (72) Long Beach State, (62) Indiana, (96) Western Kentucky

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Cardinals beat Clemson this week but blew a 13 point lead at UNC in a game that lived up to the hype. Virginia Tech visits Louisville on the 13th, and then there is Saturday’s monster game with Duke at home. Oh I think Louisville in the ACC is working out just fine.

(13) North Carolina (12-4) (2-1) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (82) North Carolina Central (51) Davidson, (55) Ohio State, * (24) Louisville, (79) Florida, (83) UCLA

Bad Losses – NONE

Notes – North Carolina lost by 1 at home to Notre Dame, but came back with gut check win over a Louisville. If the Heels can fine another consistent perimeter scorer outside of Marcus Paige they could be very dangerous. A game at always tricky NC State is on the 14th, followed by a home game with Virginia Tech.

(50) Notre Dame 15-2 (3-1) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (36) Michigan St, (56) UMASS, (57) Georgia Tech, * (13) UNC

Bad Losses – None

Notes – I said last week if Notre Dame could split with UNC and UVA you would have to consider them a contender in the ACC. That’s what they did. They won at UNC, and lost a hard fought home game to an outstanding Virginia team. The Irish can’t avoid any slip ups as they head to Georgia Tech and host Miami this week.

Bubble But In

(49) Syracuse (12-4) (3-0) Projected Seed 10 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (68) Iowa, (72) Long Beach State, (57) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses –  (101) Michigan

Notes – Syracuse are working themselves back into the NCAA’s after a road win at Georgia Tech, and a solid home victory against FSU. Wake Forest at home, and then a road game at Clemson are games the Orange need to win to keep the momentum going. The Orange are trending in the right direction.

(48) NC State (12-5) (3-1) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (65) Boise St., (89) Pittsburgh, (71) Tennessee, * (6) Duke

Bad Losses – (124) Purdue

Notes – NC State lost at Virginia this week. There is no shame in that, but they picked up gigantic win defeating Duke 87-75, handing the Blue Devils their first loss of the season. Mark Gottfried is an underrated coach, that has made the Wolfpack a perennial NCAA team. The win over Duke goes a long way to making that happen again. The Wolfpack need to keep the things going as UNC comes to Raleigh, and then NC State heads to Florida State. I’d like to see at least a split here.

(76) Miami (11-4) (1-1) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (95) UNC-Charlotte, (95) UNC-Charlotte, * (46) Illinois, (79) Florida

Bad Losses – (131) Eastern Kentucky

Notes – Miami stays in the field with a 4 point win over Boston College. This week is a really tough one for the Canes. They have road games with with Duke and Notre Dame. I can’t keep Miami in the field, if they can’t get a split. I have a feeling the Canes will be on and off the bubble all year.

Bubble But Out

(57) Georgia Tech (9-6) (0-3) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – *(53) Rhode Island, * (38) Georgia, (95) UNC-Charlotte, (75) Vanderbilt

Bad Losses – * (155) USC-Upstate, (110) Marquette, (138) Wake Forest

Notes – Georgia Tech had a huge opportunity this week to get in the NCAA mix. They failed miserably. A home loss to Syracuse and then a discouraging loss to Wake Forest have the Jackets in their usual recent year’s position near the bottom of the ACC. If the Jackets get swept this week at home against Notre Dame and on the road at Pittsburgh, they are finished.

(89) Pittsburgh (11-5) (1-2) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses –  (208) Hawaii, (108) Clemson

Notes – Pittsburgh won at Boston College, but they suffered an absolutely crippling home to Clemson… inexcusable is actually more like it. All I’ve got to say is Pitt better beat FSU and Georgia Tech at home this week.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(108) Clemson (9-6) (1-2) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (43) LSU, * (14) Arkansas, (89) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – * (295) Winthrop, (122) Gardner-Webb, (112) South Carolina

Notes – Clemson is one weird team. The nearly won at Louisville, then came up with a stunning win at Pittsburgh. I think we know Clemson. They aren’t a gifted team, but they are coached well enough that on a given night they can cause some serious headaches for a decent team. They won’t win at Virginia this week, but keep an eye on their game with Syracuse on Saturday.

(146) Boston College (7-7) (0-3)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (15) Providence, (92) New Mexico

Bad Losses – (111) USC

Notes – BC is playing hard, but it isn’t producing wins.They have 5 single digit losses. Harvard and Virginia come to BC this week.

(151) Florida State (9-7) (1-2) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (79) Florida

Bad Losses – (139) Nebraska, (245) Mississippi St.

Notes – FSU beat Virginia Tech this week, and lost at Syracuse. They go to Pittsburgh and host NC State later in the week. I’d like to see the Noles win both of these, if they have they want to at least get to the NIT. Time is running out on the Noles to turn the season around.

(138) Wake Forest (9-8) (1-3)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (57) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses –  (187) Delaware St., (102) Minnesota

Notes – Wake Forest pushed Duke at home this week, then beat a reeling Georgia Tech. I like what I’m seeing from Danny Manning and his bunch. They go to Syracuse this week.

(257) Virginia Tech (8-7) (0-2)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (275) Appalachian St., * (223) Radford, * (151) FSU

Notes – Virginia Tech dropped a game at FSU. Now they head to Louisville and UNC this week… Ugh…

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