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Jan
04
2015

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 4, 2015

bubble4This is the first ACC Bubble Analysis for the year. Now it’s gets really serious. Selection Sunday is just a little over 2 months away, so let’s find out who is great shape already, and who has work to work to do to get into the NCAA tournament.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(5) Duke (13-0) (1-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (8) Wisconsin, (55) Michigan St., *(39) Stanford, *(35) Temple, (85) UCONN, * (30) Wofford

Bad Losses  – None

Notes – Duke had a 3-0 week with double digit win over Toledo, Wofford, and Boston College. They are firmly planted as #1 seed. This week are road games with Wake Forest and NC State.

(3) Virginia (13-0) (1-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (4) VCU, * (16) Maryland, *(22) George Washington, * (38) Harvard, , (51) Davidson, (97) LaSalle, (72) Rutgers (91) Miami

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia continues to proves itself as one of the nation’s elite teams. They best a good Davidson team this week, then persevered in a tough road game at Miami. They should be able to handle NC State this week, but then there is dangerous game at Notre Dame Saturday.

(32) Louisville (13-1) (1-0) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (61) Ohio State, (62) Minnesota, (79) Long Beach State, (83) Indiana

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville handled Long Beat State 63-48 earlier this week. They won at Wake Forest Sunday night in their ACC debut. Clemson should be no problem at home this week, then it is a Saturday tilt with surging North Carolina. If Syracuse\Duke is a birth of a new ACC rivalry, UNC\Louisville is next.

(18) North Carolina (11-3) (1-0) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (74) North Carolina Central (51) Davidson, (61) Ohio State

Bad Losses – NONE

Notes – North Carolina is starting to play really well. They beat both William & Mary and Clemson by more than 20 points. The competition goes way up this week. This week the Tar Heels host Notre Dame and Louisville. If the Heels win both, you can include them in the Duke, UVA, Louisville group as a real threat to win the ACC.

(56) Notre Dame 14-1 (2-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – (55) Michigan St, (81) UMASS, * (28) Georgia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Notre Dame continues to roll along, though Georgia Tech pushed them to 2 OT. This is definitely a NCAA caliber team, but we are about to find out just how good they are. This week Notre Dame goes to North Carolina, then welcomes Virginia to South Bend. If Notre Dame is a true contender in the ACC, they need a split of these two games.

Bubble But In

(91) Miami (10-4) (0-1) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (52) UNC-Charlotte, * (52) UNC-Charlotte, (76) Illinois

Bad Losses – (148) Eastern Kentucky

Notes – Canes had a shot to get a monster win over Virginia down in Miami, but couldn’t close the deal in double overtime. I’m going to leave Miami in as long as they beat the teams they are supposed to. This week that means beating Boston College at home. Miami is starting to skate on thin ice.

(28) Georgia Tech (9-4) (0-1) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – *(46) Rhode Island, * (20) Georgia, (52) UNC-Charlotte, (82) Vanderbilt, (100) Northwestern

Bad Losses – (137) USC-Upstate, (101) Marquette

Notes – The RPI is still sorting itself out, but with two 50 wins, and a top 100 win over UNC-Charlotte this week among a total of 5 top 100 wins, how can we leave Georgia Tech out? If the Jackets could have stole one at Notre Dame, they would have been solidly in. Still you can’t ignore some of the strong non-conference results and the top 30 RPI. This week is huge for Georgia Tech. They host Syracuse, and play at Wake Forest. Both are winnable games.

(58) NC State (11-4) (2-0) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (59) Boise St., (73) Pittsburgh, (75) Tennessee

Bad Losses – (126) Purdue

Notes – NC State split two home games this week, losing to Cincinnati, but beating Pittsburgh. That keeps the Wolfpack in, but barely. They really needed the win over the Bearcats, because the schedule is about to turn brutal. Next week they head to Virginia on the 7th, then Duke comes to Raleigh on the 11th. The Wolfpack need at least 1 upset to stay in the field.

Bubble But Out

(74) Syracuse (10-4) (1-0) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (67) Iowa, (79) Long Beach State

Bad Losses –  (142) Michigan

Notes – Syracuse nearly suffered a crippling loss at Virginia Tech in a 68-66 win. This is a critical week for Syracuse’s NCAA hopes. They head to Georgia Tech on the 7th then Florida State comes to town. The Orange need both.

(73) Pittsburgh (10-4) (0-1) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses –  (176) Hawaii

Notes – We are still waiting on Pittsburgh’s first quality win. The Panthers have a great chance to rack up a couple of wins this week, when they go to Boston College then host Clemson. Winning both is an absolute must.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(143) Clemson (8-5) (0-1) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (36) LSU, * (33) Arkansas, (95) High Point

Bad Losses – * (308) Winthrop, (110) Gardner-Webb

Notes – Not only did Clemson get beat by UNC at home, they looked like one of the worst teams in the ACC in doing so. Now the schedule gets really tough. They go to Louisville and to Pitt.

(132) Boston College (7-5) (0-1)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (27) Providence

Bad Losses – (106) USC

Notes – BC went 1-1 this week, with a win over UMass-Lowell, and an expected loss at Duke. If BC has a run in them, it better start this week with a game at home against Pitt, then a road trip to Miami.

(183) Florida State (8-6) (0-1) 

Last 10 – (7-34)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (133) Nebraska, (219) Mississippi St.

Notes – The Noles beat arch rival Florida this week, but couldn’t build on it, but going down to a bad Mississippi State team later in the week. This team just isn’t very good. Virginia Tech comes to Florida State, then FSU heads to Syracuse next Sunday. Florida State has to find a way to win both.

(173) Wake Forest (8-7) (0-2)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (99) Tulane

Bad Losses –  (146) Delaware St., (144) Florida

Notes – The Deacs showed good signs in a hard fought loss to Louisville Sunday night. Later this week Duke and Georgia Tech come to town. Wake Forest played with Louisville, they may have a surprise them.

(257) Virginia Tech (8-5) (0-1)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (180) Appalachian St., * (211) Radford

Notes – Buzz Williams almost got his first signature win at Virginia Tech, when the Hokies nearly knocked off Syracuse in Blacksburg. You wait the Hokies are going to pull a surprise or two this year. A road game at FSU is this week.

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