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Dec
28
2014

ACC Bubble Analysis for December 28, 2014

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Some of ACC fans are more than ready to turn the corner to basketball – like right now. Well going to into the new year and the conference season, let’s find out where your teams stands as it positions itself for the NCAA tournament.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(6) Duke (10-0) (0-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (9) Wisconsin, (76) Michigan St., *(44) Stanford, *(35) Temple, (70) UCONN

Bad Losses  – None

Notes – Duke didn’t play this week, but they are still locked in as a 1 seed. The 10 point win at Wisconsin is arguably the nation’s most impressive win of the season. Toledo, a decent Wofford team, and Boston College are this week.

(4) Virginia (11-0) (0-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (3) VCU, * (37) Maryland, *(18) George Washington, * (32) Harvard, (85) LaSalle, (100) Rutgers

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke and Kentucky have deservedly received most of the College Basketball headlines this year, but don’t overlook Virginia. Their resume is an impressive one so far. This week is a good Davidson team, and then a dangerous game at Miami.

(23) Louisville (11-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (61) Ohio State, (66) Minnesota

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville had the marquee game of the week when they faced off with Kentucky. Defensively they went toe to toe with the Wildcats, but lost 58-50. If there is a concern with Louisville is that this is not a good shooting team. Kentucky is tremendous on defense, but the Cardinals basically shot themselves out of winning that game. Long Beach State and Wake Forest are this week. If Louisville is the team I think they are, they should cruise in both.

(16) North Carolina (9-3) (0-0) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (86) North Carolina Central (84) Davidson, (61) Ohio State

Bad Losses – (103) Iowa

Notes – UNC looks like they are righting the ship after a bit of a roller coaster opening to the season. They blew out UAB by 31 this week. William & Mary is this week, then Saturday it is an always tricky game for the Heels – a road game at Clemson.

(99) Notre Dame 12-1 (1-0) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (76) Michigan St, (67) UMASS

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Notre Dame beat North Illinois 91-66 this week, but their computer numbers are still poor. That should improve quickly as they get into ACC conference play. Two home game Hartford and Georgia Tech are on the schedule this week.

(77) Miami (9-3) (0-0) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (51) UNC-Charlotte, * (51) UNC-Charlotte, (56) Illinois

Bad Losses – (122) Eastern Kentucky

Notes – That’s the bubble Miami is rapidly approaching. Beating the College of Charleston is must this week. Then there is a big game with Virginia at home that Miami could use to boost their resume.

Bubble But In

(54) NC State (10-3) (1-0) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (40) Boise St., (57) Richmond, (91) Tennessee

Bad Losses – (146) Purdue

Notes – NC State beat Louisiana Tech this week, so I’m sliding them into the Big Dance this week. NC State has a couple of huge home games this week. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh come to Raleigh. The Wolfpack really need to win both.

Bubble But Out

(41) Georgia Tech (8-3) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – *(53) Rhode Island, * (28) Georgia

Bad Losses – * (159) USC-Upstate

Notes – I would have left Georgia Tech in, if they could have won at Dayton. Georgia Tech is in decent position at the moment, but they don’t have the look or feel of an NCAA tournament team. They have given themselves a chance though. This week is critical. They need at least a split UNC-Charlotte and Notre Dame. Either would be a quality win.

(79) Pittsburgh (9-3) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses –  (143) Hawaii, (110) Indiana

Notes – Pittsburgh needs some quality wins badly… Holy Cross was a decent win, but that’s not enough. Florida Gulf Coast, and a bubblicious road game with NC State are this week.

(82) Syracuse (8-4) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses –  (154) Michigan

Notes – Syracuse has the same problem as Pittsburgh… ZERO quality wins. Syracuse needs to go 2-0 this week against Cornell, and Virginia Tech. They have no margin for error.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(158) Clemson (7-4) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (20) LSU, * (21) Arkansas, (58) High Point

Bad Losses – * (309) Winthrop

Notes – That Winthrop loss is a black eye, but the quality wins against LSU and Arkansas keep Clemson on the fringe of the bubble. They defeated Oakland 70-60 this past Monday. Robert Morris and UNC are this week at home. If Clemson can beat UNC at home, then they are going to get a serious look next week.

(163) Boston College (6-4) (0-0)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (30) Providence

Bad Losses – (104) USC

Notes – That win over Providence looks awfully good, but BC needs more than that. UMASS-Lowell is Monday, then a game at Duke on Saturday.

(178) Florida State (7-5) (0-1) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (106) Nebraska

Notes – Florida State is on a modest 3 game winning after defeating Stetson 63-59. This upcoming week is big for the Seminoles. They get Florida at home, then play at Mississippi State. It would do the Seminoles well to sweep these two games.

(200) Wake Forest (7-6) (0-1)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses –  (173) Delaware St., (111) Florida

Notes – Wake Forest got a win over Bucknell 60-53 this week, and  they also defeated Richmond Sunday. Princeton, and Louisville are upcoming. It will be a rough season for first year head coach Danny Manning this year, but the Deacs have three of the last four.

(266) Virginia Tech (8-4) (0-0)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – * (210) Appalachian St.

Notes – Virginia Tech doesn’t have a top 150 win this, but that’s not really important for the Hokies this year. They just need to pick up wins and build confidence. They are on a 4 game winning streak after beating VMI and Presbyterian. Competition goes way up this week with West Virginia and Syracuse on the schedule. Could the Hokies steal one?

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