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Dec
21
2014

ACC Bubble Analysis for December 21, 2014

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Which ACC teams made positive moves this week in our ACC Bubble Analysis? As more games are played you’ll see the RPI come more in line with the Selections…

Now about those bubble teams…

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(5) Duke (10-0) (0-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (15) Wisconsin, (60) Michigan St., (80) Stanford, (63) Temple, (84) UCONN

Bad Losses  – None

Notes – Duke didn’t play their best basketball this week, but still won games with Elon and UCONN by double digits. In fact they haven’t won a game by less than 10 points all year. If Kentucky wasn’t  looking so impressive, Duke would be the talk of college basketball right now. This is an excellent team. Their next game is not until the 29th.

(7) Virginia (11-0) (0-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (3) VCU, * (40) Maryland, *(36) George Washington, * (29) Harvard

Bad Losses – None

Notes – I was prepared to make Virginia a 2 seed this week until they completely dismantled a solid Harvard team Sunday.The Hoos are putting up mind boggling defensive numbers. They have held 4 teams under 40 points, and 2 under 30. Virginia appears to be better this year than last season’s ACC Champions Sweet 16 team. Virginia has no games this upcoming week.

(9) Louisville (10-0) (0-0) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – (54) Ohio State, (75) Minnesota, (94) Indiana, (67) UNC-Wilmington

Bad Losses – None

Notes – UNC-Wilmington and Western Kentucky were decent wins this week for Louisville. CSNorthridge is next and then arguably the biggest non-conference game of the season. It is the monster matchup with Kentucky at Louisville. If Louisville wins that game, I’m moving them to a 1 seed. Kentucky has played a couple of neutral site games, but not one true road game yet. This should be a lot of fun.

(18) North Carolina (8-3) (0-0) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (88) North Carolina Central (78) Davidson, (54) Ohio State, (99) Florida

Bad Losses – (111) Iowa

Notes – UNC finally looked like the team we expected to see this week. They blew out UNC-Greensboro, and then pretty much controlled a game from start to finish with a good Ohio State team. UAB shouldn’t pose much problem this week for the Heels. When UNC is on they can play with anyone in country.

(106) Notre Dame 11-1 (1-0) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (60) Michigan St, *(42) UMASS

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Irish’s computer numbers aren’t good due to a fairly weak OOC schedule, but make no mistake  this is a NCAA caliber team. They destroyed Purdue this week by 31. Northern Illinois in on the the schedule this week.

(68) Miami (9-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (44) UNC-Charlotte, * (44) UNC-Charlotte, (53) Illinois, (99) Florida

Bad Losses – None

Notes – What happened to the Hurricanes against Eastern Kentucky? A home loss 72-44??? That’s an ugly loss no matter how you look at it. Miami needs to right the ship quickly, before they squander a good start to the season. They can start by beating a good Providence team Monday.

Bubble But In

(38) Georgia Tech (8-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (32) Rhode Island, (59) Georgia

Bad Losses – * (152) USC-Upstate

Notes – I didn’t think at any point this season would I have Georgia Tech in the NCAA Field. Remember this is what I think THAT week. THIS week Georgia Tech makes the field. The Jackets knocked off Appalachian St. and got a nice win over Vanderbilt this week. Quietly the Jackets are off to a better start than many expected. Can they sustain it? A win at Dayton on Tuesday would keep the Jackets in.

(65) NC State (9-3) (1-0) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (47) Boise St., (51) Richmond, (64) West Virginia

Bad Losses – (127) Purdue

Notes – It’s a weak bubble this year. Look across the country and middle of the pack Power 5 are getting upset on a weekly basis. That helps a team like NC State, who I’m keeping in the field this week. There was a solid win over Tennessee this week. If the Wolfpack could have beat West Virginia, then they would be solidly in. Louisiana Tech this week won’t be easy. The Bulldogs nearly won at Syracuse a couple of weeks ago.

Bubble But Out

(100) Pittsburgh (8-3) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses –  * (197) Hawaii

Notes – Pitt struggled but beat Oakland this week. They don’t have a single win over a top 100 team. The Panthers haven’t done enough so far this season to warrant being included in the field. Holy Cross is this week, but that won’t help the Panther’s resume.

(50) Syracuse (6-4) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses –  (129) Michigan

Notes – If Syracuse misses the NCAA tournament, they can blame an epic meltdown in the closing moments of their game with Villanova. The Orange blew a 5 point lead with just seconds remaining in what would have been a huge win. Syracuse ended up losing in OT, and like Pitt still doesn’t have a top 100 win. The Michigan loss looks worse with passing week. Colgate and Long Beach State are on the 22nd and 28th of December

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(166) Clemson (6-4) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (19) LSU, * (22) Arkansas, (55) High Point

Bad Losses – * (289) Winthrop, (128) Rutgers

Notes – Clemson has the most bizarre resume in the ACC with 3 top 60 wins, and arguably the worst loss of any ACC team. The Tigers needed to win at South Carolina to stay on the bubble, but were blown out. Oakland should be a win Monday, but they pushed Pittsburgh recently. Clemson can’t overlook them.

(137) Boston College (6-4) (0-0)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (48) Providence

Bad Losses – (142) USC

Notes – Losing at home to USC Sunday was not a good loss for the Eagles. USC was a team that had just lost to Army. UMASS-Lowell is this week.

(161) Florida State (6-5) (0-1) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (107) Nebraska, (106) Notre Dame

Notes – Florida State is trying to climb out of the hole they built themselves this year. It started by beating two directional Florida schools this week, North Florida and South Florida. The Seminoles can’t afford a slip up against Stetson Monday.

(210) Wake Forest (5-6) (0-1)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses –  (210) Delaware St., (109) Iona

Notes – Wake Forest beat Samford, but lost to Florida this past week. Bucknell and Richmond are upcoming this week. That’s about all I can say about Wake Forest at this point. They aren’t very good.

(263) Virginia Tech (6-4) (0-0)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (114) Radford, * (224) Appalachian St.

Notes – Wake Forest isn’t even the lowest ranked RPI team in the ACC. That honor belongs to Virginia Tech. The Hokies did beat Citadel this week. As good as the ACC is at the top, is how bad it is at the bottom. Virginia Tech fans have to be patient with Buzz Williams. It will take time to turn things around at Virginia Tech.

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