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Feb
15
2014

What ACC Bubble teams need to do, and how their Out of Conference results matter.

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Each week when we do our ACC bubble analysis we primarily focus on that week’s results.  When you are on the bubble though, you have to take into account everything, wins, losses, OOC wins, OOC losses.  Obviously the ACC Bubble teams need to win take care of their themselves by winning, but we want to also take in depth look at their schedule, what they need to do and what to keep any eye on in order to make the field.

(55) NC State (16-8) (6-5) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (50) Tennessee, (75) Maryland, (88) Wake Forest, (62) Florida State

Bad Losses – (133) NC Central

What needs to happen for NC State

1) Tennessee needs to go on a run. That’s NC State’s best win, and they need to remain in the RPI 50, and preferably get into the 30s.

2) Get to double digit ACC wins… A .500 ACC record NC State team, probably needs a run to the ACCT finals to make the tourney.

3) Win at least 21 games

If NC State goes 21-12 (10-8) wins an ACCT game or goes 21-11 (11-7) I think that would give them a good shot at the NCAAs.

What will Happen

@Syracuse L, @Clemson L, @Virginia Tech W, North Carolina L, Miami W, @Pittsburgh L, Boston College W

19-12 (9-9) : Miss NCAAs

Clemson and North Carolina are the swing games. North Carolina is an absolute must win.

(63) Florida State (14-10) (5-7) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (21) UMASS, * (22) VCU, (69) Maryland, (70) Clemson

Bad Losses – (108) Miami

What needs to happen for Florida State

1) They UMASS and VCU  need to stay in top 50 of the RPI.

2) FSU must finish the ACC regular season 9-9 in the conference. That would make FSU 18-12 (9-9) with 2 quality OOC wins.

3) An ACC Tournament win would be recommended as well.

19-13 (9-9) should get the Noles into the Big Dance, or 18-13 (9-9) if one of the wins is Syracuse who the Noles host on March 9th.

What will Happen

@Wake Forest W, North Carolina W, @Pittsburgh L, Georgia Tech W, @Boston College W, Syracuse L

18-13 (9-9) : Right on the Bubble depends on conference tourneys.

Ian Miller is working his way back after his injury. If the Noles could somehow get a home win over Syracuse that would be huge.

(68) Maryland (14-11) (6-6)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (56) Providence, (62) Florida State

Bad Losses – NONE

What needs to happen for Maryland

1) Maryland have dug themselves such a big hole, they just have so many losses. They can’ t lose more than 2 games. Teams with 14 losses don’t get at large NCAA bids.

That pretty much sums it up for the Terps. Unless they plan on winning the ACCT, they need a 6-1 ACC finish to get to 20-12 (11-7). Then if they get at 13th loss in the ACCT they might still get in. To go 11-7, the Terps will need to win at least 2 of 3 from Duke, Syracuse and Virginia. They do get the Orange and the Cavaliers at home.

What will Happen

@Duke L, Wake Forest W, Syracuse L, @Clemson L, Virginia Tech W, Virginia L

16-15 (8-10) : Will struggle to make the NIT

It would take a minor miracle for Maryland to make the field.

(70) Clemson (15-8) (6-5) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (8) Duke, (88) Wake Forest, (62) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (163) Auburn, (113) Notre Dame

What needs to happen for Clemson

1) Clemson must get 10-8 in league. That would leave them 19-11 heading in to the ACC Tournament.

2) Should the Tigers get to 10-8, one of those wins must be a home win over Virginia or Pitt. To go along with a win over Duke, that would the Tigers a couple of top 40 RPI wins.

3) Beat NC State and Maryland at home. Clemson can’t afford to lose either of these game at home to fellow bubble teams.

Clemson doesn’t need a miracle to make the Tourney. Only 2 of their remaining games are on the road, and they are winnable games against Georgia Tech and Wake Forest.

What will Happen

Virginia L, NC State W, @Georgia Tech W, @Wake Forest L, Maryland W, Miami W, Pittsburgh L

19-11 (10-8) : Will be close, need at least 1 ACCT win.

Somehow Clemson is going to have find a way to get a win over Pitt or Syracuse. In fact it would be to Clemson’s advantage if they finish 10-8 in conference if there is win over Pitt or Virginia.

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