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Feb
02
2014

ACC Bubble Analysis for February 2, 2014

bubble

I’m calling this past week moving week for the ACC bubble. A couple of team made huge strides toward the NCAA’s while others suffered devastating losses. Syracuse and Duke played a classic, and I can’t wait for that rematch.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(3) Syracuse (21-0) (8-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (4) Villanova, (55) Baylor, * (37) Minnesota, * (41) California, (78) Indiana,  (72) St. Johns, (73) E. Michigan, (42) North Carolina, (95) Miami, * (19) Pittsburgh, (95) Miami, * (7) Duke, (81) Wake Forest

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Syracuse withstood a game Wake Forest on the road, and then in the game of the year in college basketball held off the Duke Blue Devils. With Arizona’s loss, Syracuse will find itself the number one team in the nation. Notre Dame and Clemson head to Syracuse this week. Those are two decent teams, but I expect Syracuse to remain undefeated.

(7) Duke (17-5) (6-3) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (73) Eastern Michigan, * (15) UCLA, * (13) Michigan, * (21) Virginia, (61) NC State, (86) Alabama, * (38) Florida State, (95) Miami, * (19) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – (116) Notre Dame

Notes – Duke impressed me so much this week, that I actually moved them up from a 4 to a 3 seed. They dominated a good Pittsburgh team at Pittsburgh, then went to OT at Syracuse. Wins over UCLA, Michigan, and Virginia look better as each week passes too. This week Duke gets Wake Forest and Boston College. They need to win both to keep the momentum going.

(22) Virginia (17-5) (8-1) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (94) Missouri St., * (48) SMU, (71) Northern Iowa, (81) Wake Forest, (61) NC State, * (38) Florida State, * (38) Florida State, * (42) North Carolina, * (19) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Road wins always impress me, and the Cavaliers won at Notre Dame and Pittsburgh this week. Whoever doesn’t vote Virginia into the top 25 this week should have their voting privileges revoked. Boston College and Georgia Tech are teams that Virginia should be able to handle  this week.

(19) Pittsburgh (18-4) (6-3) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (47) Stanford, (61) NC St., (81) Wake Forest, (66) Maryland, (69) Clemson, (66) Maryland

Bad Losses –  None

Notes – Pittsburgh is a good team with a solid record and a strong RPI. They have beat a 1 top 50 RPI team this year. That’s going to be a problem when the committee looks at where to seed the Panthers. Losing to both Duke and Virginia at home raises a lot of question marks about this team. February 5th is a tricky game at Miami, then its Virginia Tech at home. Plenty of time for Pitt to right the ship, but it was bad week for them.

(43) North Carolina (14-7) (4-4) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (8) Michigan St., * (35) Louisville, * (12) Kentucky, *(50) Richmond, (69) Clemson, (61) NC State

Bad Losses – (136) UAB

Notes – North Carolina is starting to find itself. It was a solid week for them winning at Georgia Tech then taking care of NC State at home. A .500 in conference UNC is a lock for the NCAAs, so for this week they are off the bubble. The Heels could use a sweep this upcoming week to move off off the dreaded 8/9 line. They get Maryland at home Tuesday and then a game at Notre Dame on Saturday.

Bubble But In

(39) Florida State (13-8) (4-5) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (10) UMASS, * (28) VCU, (66) Maryland, (69) Clemson, (95) Miami

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Florida State has been safely in the Big Dance for weeks, but they had a crippling week. They lost at NC State, then lost at home to Clemson. If I’m thinking like a committee member I know Ian Miller got hurt during the  Clemson game, and I see two really good OOC wins over UMASS and VCU. I don’t see any bad losses and the computer numbers are good, but they are one of the last four teams in. FSU could have cruised into the NCAAs, now they have some issues. I would recommend a sweep of Virginia Tech at home and at Maryland this week, or I’m not sure they stay in the field.

Bubble But Out

(69) Clemson (14-6) (5-3) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (7) Duke, (81) Wake Forest, * (38) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (173) Auburn

Notes – Clemson just keeps hanging around. They got a huge at Florida State, but I just couldn’t put them in the field yet. The RPI is too high, and there aren’t enough quality wins. The Tigers are close though. They can’t afford a loss to Georgia Tech, but you wouldn’t expect a win at Syracuse.

(61) NC State (14-8) (4-5) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (40) Tennessee, (75) Maryland, (85) Northwestern, *(38) Florida State

Bad Losses – (131) NC Central

Notes – NC State got a good win against Florida State, but really needed to win at UNC as well. Right now the resume looks a little to NIT. Winning at Miami Saturday is a must.

(66) Maryland (13-9) (5-4)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (36) Providence, (95) Miami

Bad Losses – (111) Oregon St.

Notes –  For Maryland there are just too many losses and not enough quality wins. A win at UNC on the 4th, followed by a win over FSU on the 8th would do wonders for their resume if you know what I mean.

(81) Wake Forest (14-8) (4-5)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (50) Richmond, * (42) UNC, (61) NC State, (79) St. Bonaventure

Bad Losses – * (138) Georgia tech

Notes – Just when I started to believe in Wake Forest, they absolutely have an awful week. Losing to Syracuse at home can be forgiven. Losing to Georgia Tech at home cannot. That single defeat killed a lot of the momentum the Deacs had. No other way to say it, that was a very bad loss. Now the Deacs face an angry bunch of Blue Devils Tuesday.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(95) Miami (11-10) (2-6)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (45) Arizona St., * (42) UNC, (76) LaSalle

Bad Losses – * (228) Virginia Tech * (155) St. Francis NY, * (200) UCF

Notes – Miami lost at Maryland then beat Norfolk St. It was pretty non-descript week for the Canes. I still think this is a dangerous that can player spoiler. Pittsburgh and NC state better be paying attention this week when they head to Miami.

(116) Notre Dame 12-10 (3-6)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (78) Indiana, * (7) Duke, (81) Canisius, (66) Delaware

Bad Losses – * (138) Georgia Tech

Notes – Notre Dame got a last second win over Boston College. It’s been a rough season for the Irish in their first season in the ACC, but that made Irish feel good for at least one day. They have old Big East game at Syracuse Monday then host North Carolina Saturday. Like Miami they are very capable of playing spoiler the rest of the way out especially at home.

(138) Georgia Tech (12-10) (3-6) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (69) Illinois, (82) Wake Forest

Bad Losses – NONE

Notes – Do you want to talk about playing spoiler? Georgia Tech did just when they went to Wake Forest and beat the Demon Deacons. So many Georgia Tech players injured, credit Brian Gregory for not losing his team. Can they play spoiler again with a game at Clemson Tuesday, and Virginia at home Saturday?

(177) Boston College (6-15) (2-6)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (84) Washington

Bad Losses – * (173) Auburn, (103) Purdue, * (138) Georgia Tech, (116) Notre Dame, (125) USC

Notes – Boston College by sweeping Virginia Tech has proven they are not the ACC’s worst team. They play at Virginia on the 5th, then host Duke on the 8th.

(228) Virginia Tech (8-13) (1-8)

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins – (80) West Virginia, (95) Miami

Bad Losses – * (214) SC Upstate, (120) Seton Hall,*(321) UNC Greensboro, * (177) Boston College, (116) Notre Dame, * (177) Boston College

Notes – Virginia Tech is so bad, that they are position to be one of the worst ACC basketball teams in history. The Hokies are literally dragging down the ACC. I can’t see Virginia Tech winning at Florida State or Pittsburgh this week.

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