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Jan
12
2014

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 12, 2014

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What in the name of Tobacco road is going on with the basketball schools in North Carolina? Find out how much the past week hurt the North Carolina schools, and which other ACC teams made a move.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(7) Syracuse (16-0) (3-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (4) Villanova * (16) Baylor, (44) Minnesota, (33) California, (70) Indiana,  (59) St. Johns, (51) E. Michigan, (55) North Carolina, (86) Miami

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Syracuse is the ACC’s best team, and it isn’t even close at the moment. They’ve proven it in the non conference, they are proving during ACC play. They should be able handle Boston College on the road this week, but then a tough physical Pittsburgh team comes to Syracuse in what should be a good one.

(21) Pittsburgh (15-1) (3-0) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (83) Stanford, (77) NC St., (67) Wake Forest, (81) Maryland

Bad Losses –  None

Notes – Now can we rank Pittsburgh? They easily handled Maryland and Wake Forest this week, but upcoming will tell us a lot about the Panthers. A road game at Georgia Tech where the Jackets can be tough, followed by a big one against Syracuse Saturday.

(24) Virginia (12-4) (3-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (73) Missouri St.,  * (37) SMU, (57) Northern Iowa, * (28) Florida State, (67) Wake Forest, (77) NC State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Cavaliers are becoming the team we thought they could be. The routed Wake Forest at home which wasn’t too shocking, but then clobbered NC State on the road by a score of 76-45. The Cavs have 6 top 100 wins, that’s the most in the ACC outside of Syracuse. With the way Duke defends in the post, the Cavs have shot there Monday. They host FSU on Saturday.

(29) Duke (12-4) (1-2) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (51) Eastern Michigan, * (49) UCLA, (50) Michigan

Bad Losses – (104) Clemson

Notes – Maybe this is what this Duke team is… A individually talented team with no defensive post presence. That was an ugly loss at Clemson and now Duke is literally in a must win situation when red hot Virginia comes to Duke. This is a critical week for the Blue Devils, they get both UVA and NC State at home and have to win both or they will slip further down the Seed projections.

(28) Florida State (11-4) (2-1) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (3) UMASS, (39) VCU, (81) Maryland

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Noles had a good week winning at Clemson and destroying Maryland at home, but the upcoming week will be tough. The Seminoles go on the road to face a rapidly improving Miami team and they go on the road to play Virginia who beat the Noles in Tallahassee.

Bubble But In

(55) North Carolina (10-6) (0-3) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (8) Michigan St., (47) Louisville, * (15) Kentucky, (72) Richmond

Bad Losses – (106) UAB

Notes – How can a team with these kinds wins be on the bubble? Well North Carolina is, and they are in serious trouble. A week off couldn’t have come at a better time, because the Heels need to regroup. I have a simple formula for UNC. For each marquee OOC win they have, that’s how far below .500 in the ACC they can be and make the NCAAs. They have 3 great wins, and they are currently 3 games under .500 in the ACC. That’s in by the skin of their teeth. If UNC can’t beat Boston College at home Saturday they might as well pack it in for the season.

Bubble But Out

(67) Wake Forest (11-5) (1-2) 

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (72) Richmond, (91) USC, (55) UNC

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Even though it was tough week of games at Pitt and UVA, I can’t leave Wake Forest in the field after losing both. The part that should be a concern is Wake Forest lost both by 15+ points. NC State at home this week is a must win, and if they could steal one at Clemson too that would help a lot.

(77) NC State (11-5) (1-2) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (53) Tennessee, (89) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – (103) NC Central

Notes – NC State goes on the road to win at Notre Dame then gets destroyed at home by Virginia. Umm Ok… The Wolfpack need to get a split this week at Wake Forest  and at Duke or they will fall to 1-4 in the ACC.

(81) Maryland (10-5) (2-0)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (66) Providence, (57) Northern Iowa

Bad Losses – (135) Oregon St.

Notes –  The Terps couldn’t get a road win at either Pitt or Florida State. If Maryland is going to make a move, it needs to start this week with a winnable home game against Notre Dame.

(86) Miami (9-6) (1-2)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (64) Arizona St. (55) UNC, (78) LaSalle

Bad Losses – * (172) Virginia Tech (133) St. Francis NY, * (227) UCF

Notes – Miami is not the same team they were a month ago. They have gotten a lot better in recent weeks, just ask UNC. This weeks’ games with FSU at home and on road at Georgia Tech are huge for the Canes to keep the momentum going.

(89) Notre Dame 10-6 (1-2)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (70) Indiana, * (29) Duke, (99) Canisius, (95) Delaware

Bad Losses – (117) Georgia Tech

Notes – Notre Dame got a signature win over a Duke, then did absolutely nothing with it. They lost at home to NC State, then fell at undermanned Georgia Tech. Frankly it was a disastrous week for the Irish. They head to Maryland on the 15th and get reeling Virginia Tech  on the 19th.

(104) Clemson (11-4) (2-1)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (29) Duke

Bad Losses – * (170) Auburn

Notes –  The Tigers got a major signature win Saturday when they defeated Duke. Clemson is now in position where the NCAA’s are not just a dream. The opportunity is there to make a move. With a game at struggling Virginia Tech then Wake Forest at home, the Tigers have a legit chance to get to 4-1 in the ACC.

(117) Georgia Tech (10-6) (1-2) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (22) Illinois, (89) Notre Dame

Bad Losses – (128) Vanderbilt

Notes – Just when I was about to give up on Georgia Tech, they come up with an inspired win home over Notre Dame. Georgia Tech has been tough in Atlanta, and if they go 2-0 with Pittsburgh and Miami at home this week, well that would open a lot of eyes.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(172) Virginia Tech (8-7) (1-2)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (74) West Virginia, (86) Miami

Bad Losses – * (181) SC Upstate, (137) Seton Hall,*(284) UNC Greensboro, (134) Boston College

Notes – Virginia Tech you lost at home to Boston College, you lost at home to Boston College.

(134) Boston College (5-11) (1-2)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (110) Purdue,* (170) Auburn, (104) Clemson

Notes – Credit to Boston College for going 1-0 last week by winning at Virginia Tech. Baby Steps…

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