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Dec
22
2013

ACC Bubble Analysis for December 22, 2013

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A couple of teams really improved their NCAA stock this week. Let’s find out who…

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(4) Syracuse (11-0) (0-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (11-0)

Good Wins – * (5) Baylor, (29) Minnesota, (70) California, (83) Indiana, (60) St. Johns

Bad Losses -None

Notes – 5 Top 100 wins before Christmas. The Orange just keep rolling along.  Villanova next week will be a huge game

(45) Duke (9-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (65) UCLA, (85) Michigan

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke is figuring out how to play defense. They locked down a good UCLA  team Thursday to win by 17.

(23) North Carolina (8-3) (0-0) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (17) Michigan St., * (43) Louisville, * (20) Kentucky, (73) Richmond

Bad Losses – (101) UAB

Notes – I had to drop UNC at least one seed. Texas is a nice team, but a top 4 seed doesn’t lose to them at home missing over 20 free throws. Beating Davidson in OT wasn’t exactly encouraging either. Will the real Tar Heels please stand up?

(34) Florida State (8-3) (0-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (2) UMASS, (47) VCU

Bad Losses – None

Notes – No ACC team did more to improve their NCAA stock in the past week than Florida State. They blew out a decent UNC-Charlotte team, then knocked off previously undefeated UMASS. Leonard Hamilton is doing another great job.

(41) Pittsburgh (11-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (52) Stanford, (91) Penn St.

Bad Losses –  None

Notes – Tough 1 point loss to Cincinnati. That Stanford win looks better after the Cardinals beat UCONN this week. This is a hardnosed team that should enter ACC conference play 12-1.

Bubble But In

(61) Virginia (7-3) (0-0) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (75) Missouri St.,  (64) SMU

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia picked up a decent win over Northern Iowa this week in their only game. They can’t afford any letdown this week in their only game against Norfolk St.

(77) NC State (9-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (95) Detroit, (86) Tennessee

Bad Losses – NONE

Notes – NC State had a very solid road at Tennessee to get on to this weeks bubble. The Wolfpack have golden opportunity for a big OOC win when a good but beatable Missouri team comes to Raleigh. This is a huge game for NC State’s and could prove this is truly an NCAA tournament type squad.

Bubble But Out

(81) Wake Forest (10-2) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (73) Richmond

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The only difference between Wake Forest and NC State is that Wolfpack beat the Vols and Deacs did not. If Wake Forest wins on the road against a pretty good Xavier team, then I’m putting them in the tournament next week. That’s a win that would grab some people attention. Keep an eye on this team…

(101) Virginia Tech (7-4) (1-0)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –

Bad Losses – (179) SC Upstate, * (156) Seton Hall

Notes – The Hokies got blasted by VCU this past week. Virginia Tech really needed that win to get serious consideration.

(111) Maryland (7-5) (1-0)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (79) Providence

Bad Losses – * (170) Oregon St.

Notes –  That was just a dreadful home loss this past week to Boston University, just dreadful.

(125) Notre Dame (8-4) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (80) Bryant, (83) Indiana

Bad Losses – (123) Indiana St.

Notes – A disastrous weekend has really damaged the Irish’s NCAA chances now and going forward. They had an epic meltdown blowing an 8 point lead to Ohio State in the final 90 seconds. Then their leading scorer Jerian Grant is off the team for the rest of the season due to academic issues. That’s going to hurt.

(130) Clemson (8-3) (0-0)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – NONE

Bad Losses – * (190) Auburn

Notes –  Clemson blew a road game they led most of the way against a bad Auburn team. Without any marquee wins Clemson couldn’t afford to lose a game like that.

(138) Georgia Tech (8-4) (0-0)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (18) Illinois

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Georgia Tech has one of five best ACC RPI Wins, and they don’t have loss outside the top 75. The resume isn’t bad, but what happened this weekend has to be a concern. The Yellow Jackets got up 14 on an undermanned Vanderbilt team early then promptly got outscored by 27 the rest of the way. A road game at UNC Charlotte is an absolute must this week.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(154) Miami (7-5) (0-0)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (72) Arizona St.

Bad Losses – (101) Virginia Tech (108) St. Francis NY, * (300) UCF

Notes – Miami is on a modest 2 game winning streak. Hey you have to start somewhere.

(141) Boston College (4-8) (0-1)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (106) USC (111) Maryland, (127) Purdue, * (190) Auburn

Notes – I’m trying to think of something nice to say about BC basketball. I got nothing.

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