ACC Bubble Analysis for December 15, 2013

NCAA Championship Game: Butler v Duke

It’s never too early to begin looking at where your ACC team is regards to the NCAA tournament, especially as we near conference play. In fact a couple of teams have already played their opening conference teams. Several ACC teams have quality non-conference wins, which is what the committee looks at heavily. The ACC has 15 teams playing basketball this season. Will that result in a 7-8 bid league?

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Normally the RPI helps guide my seedings, but at the moment the RPI is still sorting itself out. For example teams like Louisville and Duke have RPIs in the 60s, and they would be locks for the NCAAs at the moment.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.


(5) Syracuse (10-0) (0-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (3) Baylor, (59) Minnesota, (81) California, (90) Indiana

Bad Losses -None

Notes – If Arizona is the country’s best team right, Syracuse is right behind them. No one can question the Orange’s early season schedule. Quality wins dot their schedule and there is the tournament win in Maui.

(16) North Carolina (7-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (7-2)

Good Wins – * (23) Michigan St., * (43) Louisville, (65) Kentucky

Bad Losses – None

Notes – No team in the country has better OOC wins than North Carolina does, and they’ve done it on nuetral sites (Louisville) and on the road (Michigan St.). Yes I’m counting the UAB and Belmont losses or the Heels would be a 1 seed. Another quality OOC win is possible with 9-1 Texas Wednesday night.

(63) Duke (7-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (5-3)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke has a win over Michigan. That victory will eventually be a top 100 win, and losses to Kansas and Arizona won’t be outside the RPI top 50 probably top even top 25. It would help the Blue Devil’s resume if Duke could beat UCLA this week.

(26) Pittsburgh (10-0) (0-0) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – (78) Stanford, (85) Penn St.

Bad Losses –  None

Notes – The Panthers are a good team and should be ranked, but their non-conference schedule is pretty weak. That said you play the schedule in front of you, and this is a tournament team if we were playing today.

Bubble But In

(54) Virginia (7-3) (0-0) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (60) Missouri St.,  (71) SMU

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia has good computer numbers, but the they blew two golden opportunities for big OOC wins on their home floor. Either a win over Wisconsin or VCU would have really helped their resume.

(106) Florida State (6-3) (0-0) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (6-3)

Good Wins – (53) VCU

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Noles losses are to Florida, Minnesota, and Michigan. By the end of the year no one will question that. Keep an eye on the UMASS game on the 21st. UMASS is the nations #1 RPI team and while that won’t hold up, that would likley still be a a top 100 win come March.

(148) Notre Dame (8-3) (0-0) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (57) Bryant, (90) Indiana

Bad Losses – (102) Indiana St.

Notes – I would have had Notre Dame as a lock had they not lost at home to North Dakota St. The win over Indiana was huge though. The Irish get a big opportunity with Ohio State at home. If the Irish win that game, I’d move them off the bubble. That 148 RPI even now is ugly, but I think we all know this is team is better than that.

Bubble But Out

(73) Virginia Tech (7-3) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (68) Winthrop, (97) West Virginia

Bad Losses – (112) SC Upstate, * (151) Seton Hall

Notes – Quietly the Hokies have 4 games in a row, and even have a road win at Miami. Big game this week with VCU…  That loss to SC Upstate is going to hurt all year.

(91) Wake Forest (8-2) (0-0) 

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (65) Richomd,  (80) USC

Bad Losses – None

Notes – I’m not sure what to make of Wake Forest just yet. Their only losses have been to Kansas and Tennessee.

(101) Maryland (7-4) (0-0)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (91) Providence

Bad Losses – * (173) Oregon St.

Notes –  If Maryland could have stole a win over Connecticut, Ohio St., or George Washington, I might have had them just in

(110) Clemson (8-2) (0-0)

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (72) Temple, (79) South Carolina

Bad Losses –

Notes –  Clemson looks alot like Wake Forest. I’m not sure how good they really are, but they do play some serious defense.

(136) Georgia Tech (7-3) (0-0)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (45) Illinois

Bad Losses – None

Notes – The Illinois win will carry weight all season, but If Georgia Tech really wants to get into the NCAA discussion I’d like see them win at a decent but not great Vanderbilt team this week.

(140) NC State (7-2) (0-0)

Last 10 – (7-2)

Good Wins – (96) Detroit

Bad Losses – (105) Cincinnati, (119) NC Central

Notes – NC State hasn’t beat anyone that I think will even approach the NCAA tournament.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(159) Miami (5-5) (0-0)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (88) Arizona St.

Bad Losses – (123) St. Francis NY, * (319) UCF

Notes – No Shane Larkin, No Kenny Kadji, No NCAAs this year for Miami…

(124) Boston College (3-7) (0-0)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – None

Bad Losses – (101) Maryland, (127) Purdue

Notes – Boston College is a disappointment on so many levels. Just a disastrous start to the season.

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