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Mar
17
2013

Pre-Selection Sunday ACC Bubble Analysis for March 17, 2013

One day before Selection Sunday… Where will the ACC teams end up who will make it? Let’s take one last stab at it before Selection Sunday.

There is an interesting debate about Duke and Miami as 1 seeds below from the ACCDN.

In my ranking system, any RPI win top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(1) Duke (27-5) (14-4) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (34) Minnesota, * (3) Louisville, * (25) VCU, * (11) Ohio St, * (42) Temple, (56) Kentucky, (89) Santa Clara, (69) Maryland, (81) Florida State, (93) Florida Gulf Coast, * (33) North Carolina State,* (16) UNC, (61) Davidson, * (4) Miami, * (16) UNC

Bad Losses -None

Notes – How do you want to judge a number seeds? If you going by conference champs, Duke is out. If you are going by resume and RPI then Duke is in. I think Gonzaga and Louisville are locks as 1 seeds. Indiana despite losing 3 of their last 6 earns points as Big 10 Champs, but a suspect #10 RPI is also probably a 1. Duke has 15 top 100 wins to Indiana’s 11. If Miami and Ohio State win tomorrow Duke will have wins over 3 power conference champions -> Miami, Ohio State, and Louisville.

I agree the loss to Maryland hurts, but when I look at that 4 of the 5 losses for Duke were when Ryan Kelly was hurt I just can’t penalize the Blue Devils that much for 1 ugly loss to Maryland. You have to give the edge to Duke over Kansas when you look at the body of work. The Jayhawks have one notable OOC win, that being Ohio State. Duke beat them too.

(4) Miami (26-6) (15-3) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (71) UNC Charlotte, * (8) Michigan St., (55) Massachusetts, * (46) LaSalle, (66) Detroit, (69) Maryland, * (1) Duke, (81) Florida State, * (33) NC State, * (16) UNC, * (16) UNC, (81) Florida State, (74) Virginia, * (33) NC State

Bas Losses –  (148) Georgia Tech, (169) Wake Forest

Notes – Here’s where it gets tough. Shouldn’t Miami get the nod over Duke as ACC Regular and ACC tournament champs if they defeat UNC in the ACC Tournament Finals? Wouldn’t their resume be awfully similar to a Kansas team that went 29-5 that is couple of spots ahead in the human polls but a couple of spots behind in the RPI? Kansas has a loss to TCU. Miami lost at home to Georgia Tech. If I can’t put Kansas ahead of Duke, I can’t put Miami ahead of them either… at the moment.

Don’t hate me Miami fans, I love the Canes. They put on a clinic today against NC State, but when I factor in Ryan Kelly’s absences… oh wait Durand Scott and Reggie Johnson missed time in 3 of Miami’s 6 losses. OK Canes beat UNC and your a number 1 seed in my book over Duke. I separate Kansas and Miami, because the Big 12 has two top teams with RPIs over 200. The ACC’s RPI is better than the Big 12′s as well. Doubt the ACC’s credibility? They went 6-6 against the Big 10 head up.

(16) North Carolina (24-9) (12-6) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  * (22) UNLV, (81) Florida State, (69) Maryland, (74) Virginia, * (33) NC State, (99) East Carolina, (81) Florida State, (69) Maryland, (69) Maryland, (81) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (111) Texas

Notes – Quietly North Carolina is playing some of the best basketball in the country. If they were to win the ACC Title, I think they’ll end up a 4 seed, which is mighty impressive considering this was a bubble team 6 weeks ago. I don’t think they’ll fall below 7, and 6 looks more probable even with a loss tomorrow.

UNC is not a team I’d want to see on the other side of my bracket.

(33) North Carolina State (24-10) (11-7) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (47) Connecticut, (55) Massachusetts, (76) Stanford, * (1) Duke, * (16) North Carolina, (81) Florida State, (74) Virginia

Bad Losses – (169) Wake Forest

Notes – Before the ACCT started I thought if NC State could get to Saturday they would avoid the 8-9 game. I’m not sure now. Wisconsin’s and UNC’s run in their conference tournaments have pulled two fellow 8-9 teams out of that grouping and ahead of the Wolfpack.

I felt all along NC State was talented enough to play with anyone in the country, and that when they lost it was usually due to a lack of focus and motivation. I still believe they can beat a 1 seed, but watching Miami dismantle NC State in front of basically a home Wolfpack crowd proves that they really are a cut below the nation’s elite teams. It was only a 10 point loss, but the Wolfpack had to work really hard to keep it that close.

Bubble But In

NONE

Bubble But Out

(69) Maryland (22-12) (8-10) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (33) NC State, (79) Stony Brook, * (1) Duke, *(1) Duke

Bad Losses – (116) Boston College, (148) Georgia Tech

Notes – The Terps really opened some eyes when they became the only team in the country to beat Duke when Ryan Kelly was playing. It got Maryland on the bubble, but when you break Maryland down it’s not enough. With only 4 top 100 wins , an 8-10 ACC record, and the fact they got swept by fellow bubble team Virginia, No the resume is not good enough for the Terrapins.

(74) Virginia (21-11) (11-7) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (59) Tennessee, * (28) Wisconsin, * (16) North Carolina, (81) Florida State, * (33) NC State, (69) Maryland, * (1) Duke, (69) Maryland

Bad Losses – (141) Delaware, * (318) Old Dominion, (185) Clemson, (169) Wake Forest, * (163) George Mason, (148) Georgia Tech, (116) Boston College

Notes – You can’t lose 3 of your last 4 then get blown out by 19 in your one conference tournament game. The RPI is terrible, many of the losses are terrible, and the finish was terrible. Do I think the Cavaliers are a tournament team? Yes… Do I think they’ll get a bid? No… If they make it they are in the play in games.

I put the chances of getting in at about 30%. I’ve said for weeks they needed 12 ACC wins. The 12th win never came.

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