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Mar
11
2013

Pre-ACC tournament – ACC Bubble Analysis for March 11, 2013

Plenty going on today, the ACC released their All-ACC Team, All-ACC Defensive Team, and All-ACC Freshman Team.  Good stuff there…

Now we want to take a look at how the ACC teams are doing heading into the ACC Tourney at how it could affect NCAA tournament.

In my ranking system, any RPI win top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(1) Duke (27-4) (14-4) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (24) Minnesota, * (3) Louisville, * (26) VCU, * (14) Ohio St, * (38) Temple, (50) Kentucky, (89) Santa Clara, (86) Maryland, (81) Florida State, (91) Florida Gulf Coast, * (28) North Carolina State,* (19) UNC, (68) Davidson, * (4) Miami, (19) UNC

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Provided Duke doesn’t lose on Friday, I’m having a hard time seeing how they don’t end up with a number 1 seed. If Gonzaga and Indiana are 2 of your number 1 seeds, is there anyway that 2 of these teams Kansas, Florida, Louisville, Georgetown, or Miami leap frog Duke? I don’t think so.

(4) Miami (24-6) (15-3) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (70) UNC Charlotte, * (8) Michigan St., (58) Massachusetts, * (41) LaSalle, (65) Detroit, (86) Maryland, * (1) Duke, (81) Florida State, * (28) NC State, * (19) UNC, * (19) UNC, (81) Florida State, (66) Virginia

Bas Losses –  (130) Georgia Tech, (167) Wake Forest

Notes – Miami hurt  it’s chances of a number 1 seed, by losing  a home game to Georgia Tech last week. Get to Saturday of the ACCT and Miami is a 2 or 3 seed, get to Sunday and a 2 is likely. Win the ACC Tourney and Miami will still have an argument for being a number 1 seed, especially if they beat a full strength Duke team.  If  the Canes goes winless in the ACCT they could drop to a 4 seed.

(19) North Carolina (22-9) (12-6) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  * (12) UNLV, (81) Florida State, (86) Maryland, (66) Virginia, * (28) NC State, (99) East Carolina, (81) Florida State, (86) Maryland

Bad Losses – * (114) Texas

Notes – What North Carolina is currently was on full display last week. They’ve become good enough to win on the road at desperate Maryland, but they couldn’t match Duke’s length inside even at home. I can still see UNC with a 5 or 6 seed, if they make a run to the ACCT finals, which would probably include a win over Duke. Win it all and a 4 is possible.

(28) North Carolina State (22-9) (11-7) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (45) Connecticut, (58) Massachusetts, (64) Stanford, * (1) Duke, * (19) North Carolina, (81) Florida State

Bad Losses – (167) Wake Forest

Notes – The Wolfpack are going to need to get to ACCT semi-finals if they want to stay out of that 8-9 NCAA tournament game. The Wolfpack really need some positive momentum going into the NCAAs.

Bubble But In

(66) Virginia (21-10) (11-7) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (55) Tennessee, * (42) Wisconsin, * (19) North Carolina, (81) Florida State, * (28) NC State, (86) Maryland, * (1) Duke, (86) Maryland

Bad Losses – (141) Delaware, * (316) Old Dominion, (177) Clemson, (167) Wake Forest, * (159) George Mason, (130) Georgia Tech, (118) Boston College

Notes – Virginia gutted out a win at home over Maryland that is keeping them in the NCAAs… barely. If they win 1 ACCT game I think they can feel safe come selection Sunday, but lose Friday and while I think they would deserve a bid the committee may not think so. No team has more on the line in this tournament than Virginia.

Bubble But Out

(86) Maryland (20-11) (8-10) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (28) NC State, (79) Stony Brook, * (1) Duke

Bad Losses – (118) Boston College, (130) Georgia Tech

Notes – Maryland is the one other ACC team they may get into the NCAA discussion without winning the whole thing, but they have to get the ACCT finals. Even then I don’t think it will be enough. They really needed to beat either UVA or UNC last week.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(81) Florida State (17-14) (9-9)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (87) St. Josephs, (67) BYU, (70) Charlotte, (86) Maryland, (86) Maryland, (28) NC State, (66) Virginia

Bad Losses – * (158) South Alabama, * (134) Mercer, * (243) Auburn, * (167) Wake Forest, * (173) Virginia Tech

Notes – I just can’t see a team with 15 losses making the NCAAs. The Noles have to win the whole thing, but they are playing well. They could be dangerous.

(130) Georgia Tech (16-14) (6-12)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (30) St. Marys, (66) Virginia, (86) Maryland, * (4) Miami

Bad Losses – * (173) Virginia Tech, (177) Clemson, (177) Clemson, (118) Boston College

Notes – Georgia Tech winning at Miami was no fluke. That was the best ACC road win of the season, and the Jackets played very well. It’s not a performance they are likely to repeat but you never know. If they can beat BC, they’ll get another shot at the Canes.

(167) Wake Forest (13-17) (6-12)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (77) Xavier, * (28) NC State, (81) Florida State, (66) Virginia, * (4) Miami

Bad Losses –   (139) Seton Hall, * (173) Virginia Tech, * (177) Clemson, (130) Georgia Tech, (119) Iona, (106) Nebraska, (130) Georgia Tech, (118) Boston College

Notes – Can Wake Forest pull off an upset or two in the ACCT? Ask Miami and NC State…

(130) Boston College (15-16) (7-11)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (83) Providence, (86) Maryland, (66) Virginia

Bad Losses –  (167) Wake Forest, (157) Bryant, * (131) Charleston, (110) Dayton

Notes – Boston College -> the team that kills any momentum after you beat Duke (Maryland, UVA) or Miami (Georgia Tech)

(177) Clemson (13-17) (5-13)

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins – (66) Virginia, (98) UTEP

Bad Losses – (116) Purdue, * (261) Coastal Carolina, (118) Boston College, (173) Virginia Tech, (118) Boston College

Notes – Clemson is the one ACC team, that I think is not capable of doing anything in the ACCT. They are playing that poorly right now.

(173) Virginia Tech (13-18) (4-12) 

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins –  * (23) Oklahoma St,  (75) Iowa, (81) Florida State

Bad Losses – *(269) Georgia Southern, (118) Boston College, (177) Clemson, (130) Georgia Tech, (125) West Virginia, (167) Wake Forest

Notes – Erick Green always gives the Hokies a chance.

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