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Mar
08
2013

(Special) ACC Bubble Analysis for March 8, 2013

Normally I’ll put my ACC Bubble Analysis out on Monday’s, but things are getting down to the wire here, and I’m going to up the frequency of the bubble analysis for the teams that have are still in the NCAA discussion.

In my ranking system, any RPI win top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(1) Duke (26-4) (13-4) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (20) Minnesota, * (4) Louisville, * (29) VCU, * (16) Ohio St, * (43) Temple, (54) Kentucky, (89) Santa Clara, (86) Maryland, (87) Florida State, (94) Florida Gulf Coast, * (27) North Carolina State, (90) Santa Clara, * (20) UNC, (76) Davidson, * (3) Miami

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Seriously just look at that resume, and tell me how Duke is not a number 1 seed even if they lose at UNC. It’s like this if Duke wins 2 more ACC games anywhere they are a lock for a 1 seed, and they might just need 1 more.

(3) Miami (23-6) (14-3) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (80) UNC Charlotte, * (7) Michigan St., (55) Massachusetts, * (40) LaSalle, (59) Detroit, (86) Maryland, * (1) Duke, (87) Florida State, * (27) NC State, * (19) UNC, * (19) UNC, (87) Florida State, (72) Virginia

Bas Losses –  (108) Florida Gulf Coast, (166) Wake Forest, (120) Georgia Tech

Notes – I still have Miami as a 2, but not by much. Give Georgia Tech credit for playing their best game of the season down at Miami, but the Canes shouldn’t be losing that game at home. The Hurricanes have to win the ACCT to have any shot at 1 seed now.  Barring a total collapse to end the season they’ll end up a 2 or 3 seed.

(19) North Carolina (22-8) (12-5) Projected Seed 6

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  * (13) UNLV, (87) Florida State, (86) Maryland, (72) Virginia, * (27) NC State, (95) East Carolina, (87) Florida State, (86) Maryland

Bad Losses – * (124) Texas

Notes – Were the Heels impressive taking care of Maryland or what? If UNC can beat Duke, they have a shot of moving into protected 4 seed territory.

(24) North Carolina State (22-8) (11-6) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (46) Connecticut, (55) Massachusetts, (63) Stanford, * (1) Duke, * (19) North Carolina, (87) Florida State

Bad Losses – (166) Wake Forest

Notes – The Wolfpack need to win at dangerous at Florida State, to stay out of the 8-9 game seed.

Bubble But In

NONE

Bubble But Out

(72) Virginia (20-10) (10-7) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (56) Tennessee, * (40) Wisconsin, * (19) North Carolina, (87) Florida State, * (27) NC State, (86) Maryland, * (1) Duke

Bad Losses – (128) Delaware, * (318) Old Dominion, * (178) Clemson, * (166) Wake Forest, * (153) George Mason, (120) Georgia Tech, (125) Boston College

Notes – I want to put Virginia in, but I just can’t. You simply cannot afford to lose both at BC and FSU on the road. I continue to maintain the Cavs need to get to 12 ACC wins to feel good about the NCAAs, and right now they are stuck at 10.

(86) Maryland (20-10) (8-9) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (27) NC State, (69) Stony Brook, * (1) Duke

Bad Losses – (125) Boston College, (120) Georgia Tech

Notes – That was a listless effort the Terps put up against UNC at home. Maryland’s NCAA hopes are just about done. They had better find a way to win at UVA Sunday, or it will take a run to the ACCT finals to even get on the bubble.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

Everybody else… 

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