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Mar
04
2013

ACC Bubble Analysis for March 4, 2013

Less than 2 weeks… less than 2 weeks is all you have to position yourselves for the NCAA tournament. Let’s check out where I have the ACC teams at the moment.

In my ranking system, any RPI win top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(1) Duke (25-4) (12-4) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (16) Minnesota, * (5) Louisville, * (31) VCU, * (21) Ohio St, * (42) Temple, (51) Kentucky, (89) Santa Clara, (70) Maryland, (88) Florida State, (94) Florida Gulf Coast, * (24) North Carolina State, (93) Santa Clara, * (20) UNC, (76) Davidson, * (3) Miami

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Ryan Kelly carried Duke to a win over a very good Miami team. The sky’s the limit for the Blue Devils with the Kelly’s return. There’s a huge game with surging North Carolina on Saturday.

(3) Miami (23-5) (14-2) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (60) UNC Charlotte, * (8) Michigan St., (54) Massachusetts, * (45) LaSalle, (57) Detroit, (65) Maryland, * (1) Duke, (88) Florida State, * (24) NC State, * (20) UNC, * (20) UNC, (88) Florida State, (64) Virginia

Bas Losses –  (109) Florida Gulf Coast, (167) Wake Forest

Notes – Miami had a decent week despite a loss to Duke. They easily defeated Virginia Tech and it took a spectacular effort from Ryan Kelly for Duke to win at home over the Canes. Miami still has a decent shot at 1 seed, and should cruise into the ACCT with home games against Clemson at Georgia Tech this week.

(20) North Carolina (21-8) (11-5) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  * (13) UNLV, (88) Florida State, (70) Maryland, (73) Virginia, * (24) NC State, (99) East Carolina, (88) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (126) Texas

Notes – North Carolina is going to be an interesting case the next 2 weeks. With games against Maryland and Duke plus the ACCT, the Heels can end up with a NCAA seeding anywhere from 3 to 12.

(24) North Carolina State (21-8) (10-6) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (39) Connecticut, (54) Massachusetts, (72) Stanford, * (1) Duke, * (20) North Carolina, (88) Florida State

Bad Losses – (167) Wake Forest

Notes – Quietly the Wolfpack have 5 of their last 6 games. Right now the biggest thing for NC State is to try an earn that first round BYE in the ACCT. Beating both Wake Forest and FSU this week would be a good start.

Bubble But In

(64) Virginia (20-9) (10-6) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (56) Tennessee, * (41) Wisconsin, * (20) North Carolina, (88) Florida State, * (24) NC State, (70) Maryland, * (1) Duke

Bad Losses – (127) Delaware, * (317) Old Dominion, (169) Clemson, (167) Wake Forest, * (156) George Mason, (139) Georgia Tech, (130) Boston College

Notes – Oh Virginia you follow up the Duke win, by blowing a second half lead at Boston College. The Cavs magic number is 12 ACC wins. That would make them a lock, 11 leaves it up to the committee and a lot of scoreboard watching.

Bubble But Out

(70) Maryland (20-9) (8-8) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (24) NC State, (69) Stony Brook, * (1) Duke

Bad Losses – (130) Boston College, (139) Georgia Tech

Notes – Losing 2 out of the 3 to Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest is not the way to get into the NCAA tournament Terps. If the MD can sweep UNC and UVA this week, that would put them 1 ACCT win from the Big Dance. Maryland needs to get 11 ACC wins including the ACCT to feel good come Selection Sunday.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(88) Florida State (15-14) (7-9)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (87) St. Josephs, (59) BYU, (81) Charlotte, (70) Maryland, (70) Maryland

Bad Losses – * (147) South Alabama, * (133) Mercer, * (228) Auburn, (167) Wake Forest, (170) Virginia Tech

Notes – Florida State doesn’t even look like a NIT team at the moment, but with home games against Virginia and NC State they can play big time spoiler this week. One of those teams is going to get upset this week.

(139) Georgia Tech (15-13) (5-11)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (37) St. Marys, (64) Virginia, (70) Maryland

Bad Losses – * (170) Virginia Tech, (169) Clemson, (169) Clemson

Notes – Georgia Tech played one of their best games of the season knocking off Maryland this past week. The Jackets have had some good moments this season.

(167) Wake Forest (12-16) (5-11)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (92) Xavier, * (24) NC State, (88) Florida State, (64) Virginia, * (3) Miami

Bad Losses –   (116) Seton Hall, * (170) Virginia Tech, * (169) Clemson, (139) Georgia Tech, (119) Iona, (106) Nebraska, (139) Georgia Tech, (130) Boston College

Notes – How is Wake Forest’s season going to be judged? It depends on who you ask… The Deacs have been all over the map this season.

(130) Boston College (13-16) (5-11)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (78) Providence, (70) Maryland, (64) Virginia

Bad Losses –  (167) Wake Forest, (143) Bryant, * (150) Charleston, (104) Dayton

Notes – Didn’t I tell you Boston College was going to be a very dangerous game for UVA?

(167) Clemson (13-15) (5-11)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (64) Virginia

Bad Losses – (117) Purdue, * (245) Coastal Carolina, (130) Boston College, (170) Virginia Tech

Notes – I think Brad Brownell is a good coach, but the Tigers are gradually getting worse with each passing game.

(170) Virginia Tech (13-16) (4-12) 

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins –  * (25) Oklahoma St,  (86) Iowa, (88) Florida State

Bad Losses – *(279) Georgia Southern, (130) Boston College, (169) Clemson, (139) Georgia Tech, (113) West Virginia

Notes – Virginia Tech is the next team to face Duke in the Ryan Kelly return tour. I wouldn’t want to be the Hokies.

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