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Feb
18
2013

ACC Bubble Analysis for February 18, 2013

More shakeup in this week’s Bubble Analysis… Who’s in? Who’s out?

In my ranking system, any RPI win top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(1) Duke (22-3) (9-3) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (15) Minnesota, * (7) Louisville, * (36) VCU, * (28) Ohio St, (52) Temple, * (44) Kentucky, (89) Santa Clara, (62) Maryland, (65) Florida State, (94) Florida Gulf Coast, * (21) North Carolina State, (95) Santa Clara, * (30) UNC, (94) Davidson

Bad Losses -None

Notes –Despite the loss to Maryland, Duke is the still the RPIs #1. That’s enough to keep them as a 1 seed, but just barely. Michigan St. and Gonzaga are closing in, if Indiana, Miami, and Florida are your other 1 seeds.

(2) Miami (21-3) (12-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – (56) UNC Charlotte, * (5) Michigan St., (55) Massachusetts, * (35) LaSalle, * (36) North Carolina, (72) Detroit, (62) Maryland, * (1) Duke, (65) Florida State, * (21) NC State, * (30) UNC, (92) Central Florida, * (30) UNC, (65) Florida State

Bas Losses –  (101) Florida Gulf Coast

Notes – Miami had a couple of single digit road wins at Florida State and Clemson this week. It isn’t always pretty, but Miami just keeps getting it done.

(21) North Carolina State (18-7) (7-5) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (31) Connecticut, (55) Massachusetts, (73) Stanford, * (1) Duke, * (30) North Carolina

Bad Losses – (158) Wake Forest

Notes – NC State continue to play with fire. The Wolfpack were taken to OT by Virginia Tech and home. When is this team going to play to it’s potential? We’re still waiting…

(30) North Carolina (17-8) (7-5) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  * (19) UNLV, (65) Florida State, (62) Maryland, (79) Virginia

Bad Losses – * (142) Texas

Notes – I like the small lineup Roy Williams has gone too. Keep an eye on UNC’s game at Georgia Tech, that could be tricky.

Bubble But In

(62) Maryland (18-7) (6-6) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (21) NC State, (87) Stony Brook, * (1) Duke

Bad Losses – None

Notes – How do separate Maryland and Virginia? I can these two teams flip-flopping who’s in and who’s out for the next several weeks. Right now Maryland squeezes in due to their recent win over Duke.

Bubble But Out

(79) Virginia (18-7) (8-4) 

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (69) Tennessee, * (26) Wisconsin, * (30) North Carolina, (65) Florida State, * (21) NC State, (62) Maryland

Bad Losses – * (157) Delaware, * (324) Old Dominion, * (158) Clemson, (127) Wake Forest, (140) George Mason, (128) Georgia Tech

Notes – Maryland just in, Virginia just out… this week. Can the Cavaliers win at Miami this week and put themselves back in the dance?

(65) Florida State (14-11) (6-6)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (83) St. Josephs, (63) BYU, (56) Charlotte, (62) Maryland, (62) Maryland

Bad Losses – * (155) South Alabama, * (145) Mercer, * (213) Auburn, (158) Wake Forest

Notes – If Noles could ever get that signature ACC win, they could get back in the bubble discussion. Can they get a road at NC State?

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(128) Georgia Tech (14-10) (4-8)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (47) St. Marys, (79) Virginia

Bad Losses – * (167) Virginia Tech, (137) Clemson, (137) Clemson

Notes – If you are Georgia Tech and you had any remaining NCAA hopes you can’t get swept by Clemson, you just can’t.

(158) Wake Forest (11-14) (4-9)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (98) Xavier, * (21) NC State, (65) Florida State, (79) Virginia

Bad Losses –   (119) Seton Hall, * (167) Virginia Tech, * (137) Clemson, (128) Georgia Tech, (132) Iona, (106) Nebraska, (128) Georgia Tech, (148) Boston College

Notes – We thought we could count on Wake Forest playing well at home. I guess not after losing to Georgia Tech at home.

(148) Boston College (11-14) (3-9)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (86) Providence

Bad Losses –  (158) Wake Forest, (136) Bryant, (151) Charleston, (121) Dayton

Notes – I’ve lost count how many ACC games Boston College has lost by 10 points or less. It was 3 point loss to FSU this week.

(137) Clemson (13-12) (5-8)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (97) UTEP, (79) Virginia

Bad Losses – (126) Purdue, * (255) Coastal Carolina, (148) Boston College

Notes – If Clemson could only shoot Free Throws they would have beat Miami Sunday night.

(167) Virginia Tech (11-14) (2-10) 

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins –  * (23) Oklahoma St,  (80) Iowa

Bad Losses – *(278) Georgia Southern, (148) Boston College, (137) Clemson, (128) Georgia Tech

Notes – Virginia Tech last won a game on January 19th. Ouch…

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2 pings

  1. Who will make the NCAA tournament Maryland or Virginia? » All Sports Discussion says:

    [...] good time for poll… As I said earlier this week, it looks like the Maryland and Virginia will flip-flop for that 5th ACC NCAA position for the rest of the season. The other 4 spots Miami, Duke, UNC, and NC State look pretty safe. Who do you think will make it, [...]

  2. Who will make the NCAA tournament Maryland or Virginia? | Sports Blog United says:

    [...] a good time for poll… As I said earlier this week, it looks like Maryland and Virginia will flip-flop for that 5th ACC NCAA position for the rest of the season. The other 4 spots Miami, Duke, UNC, and NC State look pretty safe. Who do you think will make it, [...]

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