ACC Bubble Analysis for February 11, 2013

Did you see the top 10 get ripped to shreds this past week? Do you know who survived? Duke and Miami so take a look where they ended up in this week’s ACC Bubble Analysis, and there’s a new ACC team in the Big Dance.

In my ranking system, any RPIw top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(1) Duke (21-2) (8-2) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (8) Minnesota, * (13) Louisville, * (39) VCU, * (23) Ohio St, * (40) Temple, * (49) Kentucky, (89) Santa Clara, (73) Maryland, (65) Florida State, (94) Florida Gulf Coast, * (17) North Carolina State, (96) Santa Clara

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Duke has a whopping 12 top 100 wins. Their resume matches up with anyone in the country.  The Blue Devils can get to the Final 4, but they can’t win it all unless Ryan Kelly recovers from injury.

(2) Miami (19-3) (10-0) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – (61) UNC Charlotte, * (9) Michigan St., (52) Massachusetts, * (34) LaSalle, * (36) North Carolina, (72) Detroit, (74) Maryland, * (1) Duke, (65) Florida State, * (17) NC State, * (36) North Carolina, (89) Central Florida

Bas Losses –  None

Notes – Miami has moved up to a number 1 seed this week. That gives the ACC two number 1 NCAA seeds. That’s vintage ACC basketball. How hot is Miami? Shane Larkin’s off the backboard pass for the Kenny Kadji dunk youtube video is approaching 500,000 views.

(17) North Carolina State (17-7) (6-5) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (24) Connecticut, (52) Massachusetts, (57) Stanford, * (1) Duke, * (36) North Carolina, (96) Western Michigan

Bad Losses – (127) Wake Forest

Notes – Scott’s Woods game winning shot to defeat Clemson in the final seconds may have saved the Wolfpack’s season. Time for Mark Gottfried to start getting the most out of this talented team.

(36) North Carolina (16-7) (6-4) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (20) UNLV, (65) Florida State, (73) Maryland, (99) Long Beach St.

Bad Losses – * (159) Texas

Notes – It’s apparent there will be no turning the corner for this year’s Tar Heel team, but as long as they stay a couple of games over .500 in the ACC, they’ll make the Big Dance.

Bubble But In

(80) Virginia (17-6) (7-3) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (86) Tennessee, * (31) Wisconsin, * (36) North Carolina, (65) Florida State, * (17) NC State, (73) Maryland

Bad Losses – * (150) Delaware, * (319) Old Dominion, * (151) Clemson, (127) Wake Forest, (138) George Mason, (120) Georgia Tech

Notes – The Cavs still have poor computer numbers, but you can’t keep them out of the NCAA’s anymore. The win at Maryland was huge, and if they can go 11-7 in the ACC which would leave them 21-10, I think they’ll just sneak in.

Bubble But Out

(73) Maryland (17-7) (5-6) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (17) NC State, (88) Stony Brook

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Maryland is playing themselves right out the NCAAs. They can right the ship very quickly with a win against Duke at home on Saturday. Nothing on the line Terps just your NCAA life.

(65) Florida State (13-10) (5-5)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (84) St. Josephs, (60) BYU, (61) Charlotte, (73) Maryland, (73) Maryland

Bad Losses – * (161) South Alabama, * (164) Mercer, * (205) Auburn, (127) Wake Forest

Notes – The bottom  line on FSU is they just can’t build any momentum. The Noles can turn things around as quickly as Maryland, because they get to host Miami this week and a win over the Canes would do wonders for the Seminoles.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(121) Georgia Tech (13-9) (3-7)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (50) St. Marys, (80) Virginia

Bad Losses – * (169) Virginia Tech, (151) Clemson

Notes – The Yellow Jacket got a nice road win at Virginia Tech. Georgia Tech won’t make the NCAA’s but any post-season should be a goal for this young team.

(127) Wake Forest (11-12) (4-7)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (77) Xavier, * (17) NC State, (65) Florida State, (80) Virginia

Bad Losses –   (113) Seton Hall, * (169) Virginia Tech, * (151) Clemson, (120) Georgia Tech, (123) Iona

Notes – You want no part of Wake Forest in Winston Salem, on the road is another story.

(140) Boston College (10-13) (2-8)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – NONE

Bad Losses –  (127) Wake Forest, (134) Bryant, (141) Charleston, (116) Dayton

Notes – BC came within 1 point beating Duke. That would have been the ACC’s biggest upset of this year.

(151) Clemson (12-11) (4-7)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (95) UTEP, (80) Virginia

Bad Losses – (130) Purdue, * (258) Coastal Carolina, (140) Boston College

Notes – Uh Oh, Clemson hasn’t won a game yet in the month of February. Looking at the rest of the Tigers schedule for February, they may not win a game this whole month.

(169) Virginia Tech (11-12) (2-8) 

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins –  * (26) Oklahoma St,  (92) Iowa

Bad Losses – *(297) Georgia Southern, (140) Boston College, (169) Clemson, (120) Georgia Tech

Notes – The Hokies have lost 6 games in a row. Erick Green is a first team All-ACC player who should get some All-American consideration, and he has no help.

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