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Jan
28
2013

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 28, 2013

This week was defiantly the toughest ACC Bubble Analysis yet. Is Duke still a number 1 seed? Should Miami be ahead of them? Does the ACC deserve 3,4,5 or 6 Bids if the selections were this week?

In my ranking system, any RPIw top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(1) Duke (17-2) (4-2) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (11) Minnesota, * (13) Louisville, * (39) VCU, * (24) Ohio St, (56) Temple, (62) Kentucky, (85) Santa Clara, (65) Maryland

Bad Losses -None

Notes – How much should Duke be penalized for one really bad game, against one of the country’s hottest teams in Miami. They followed it up with a 20 point win over Maryland. Duke still gets a number 1 seed because after Michigan and Kansas what two teams do you put ahead of Duke? Florida? Running through a way down SEC isn’t really saying much. Arizona? They lost by double digits at home this past week. Syracuse? Louisville? They lost this past week too.

(3) Miami (15-3) (6-0) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (54) UNC Charlotte, * (12) Michigan St., (53) Massachusetts, * (26) LaSalle, * (36) North Carolina, (86) Detroit, (65) Maryland, * (1) Duke, (69) Florida State

Bas Losses –  (117) Florida Gulf Coast

Notes – Miami is the ACC’s best team, but behind Duke in the tournament seedings? This was tough to separate the two, but I gave the edge to Duke because Duke’s two losses are NC State and Miami without Ryan Kelly.

(15) North Carolina State (16-4) (5-2) Projected Seed 4

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (28) Connecticut, (60) Massachusetts, (75) Stanford, * (1) Duke, (36) North Carolina, (90) Western Michigan

Bad Losses – (119) Wake Forest

Notes – The Wolfpack are one of the country’s most maddening teams. They are a capable of playing like a Final 4 team or an NIT one sometimes in the same game. There is no excuse for losing to Wake Forest.

(36) North Carolina (13-6) (3-3) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (17) UNLV, (69) Florida State, (65) Maryland

Bad Losses – * (139) Texas, (113) Virginia

Notes –  The Heels have a road game at Boston College this week. UNC needs to ready or they will get upset.

Bubble But In

(65) Maryland (15-5) (3-4) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (15) NC State, (89) Northwestern, (92) Stony Brook

Bad Losses – None

Notes – I put the Terps in this week, but just barely. The only thing keeping them in is the  win over NC State.

Bubble But Out

(113) Virginia (14-5) (4-2)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (79) Tennessee, * (47) Wisconsin, * (36) North Carolina, (69) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (188) Delaware, * (323) Old Dominion, (131) Clemson, (119) Wake Forest, (114) George Mason

Notes – As much as I want to put the Cavaliers in the big dance, I just can’t overlook some of those wretched losses. That said if Virginia beats NC State this week they’ll squeeze in, even if they lose later in the week at Georgia Tech. They are right there on the bubble.

(69) Florida State (11-8) (3-3)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (87) St. Josephs, * (43) BYU, (54) Charlotte, (65) Maryland

Bad Losses – * (186) South Alabama, * (165) Mercer, * (210) Auburn, (113) Virginia

Notes – Florida State has solid looking NIT resume.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(119) Wake Forest (10-9) (3-4)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (72) Xavier, * (15) NC State

Bad Losses –   (149) Virginia Tech, (131) Clemson, (124) Georgia Tech

Notes – If Wake Forest could have followed up that NC State with a win at Georgia Tech, they would be able to at least see the bubble. They lost by 20 in Atlanta.

(124) Georgia Tech (11-7) (1-5)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (61) St. Marys.

Bad Losses – (149) Virginia Tech

Notes – The Yellow Jackets finally got their first conference win beating Wake Forest Saturday. Can they build on that?

(131) Clemson (11-8) (3-4)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (64) UTEP

Bad Losses – (106) Purdue, * (270) Coastal Carolina

Notes – Clemson had Florida State beat in Tallahassee, but let it slip away. The Tigers are running out of time to make a move towards the bubble.

(139) Boston College (9-10) (1-5)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – NONE

Bad Losses –  (119) Wake Forest, * (151) Bryant, * (155) Charleston, (107) Dayton, (113) Virginia

Notes – 4 of Boston College’s 5 ACC losses have been by 5 points or less. It wouldn’t surprise me a bit, if they push UNC for a full 40 minutes at home. Clemson at home is winnable.

(149) Virginia Tech (11-8) (2-4) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  * (44) Oklahoma St,  (84) Iowa

Bad Losses – *(263) Georgia Southern, (139) Boston College, (105) West Virginia, (113) Virginia, (131) Clemson

Notes – The Hokies couldn’t afford to lose to Virginia at home. I think Hokies need to focus on trying to make the NIT now.

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