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Jan
14
2013

ACC Bubble Analysis for January 14, 2013

There’s good news and bad news in this week’s ACC Bubble Analysis. The ACC solidifying itself at the top, but for the first time I can only justify 4 ACC teams getting into the Big Dance if selections were made today. Here’s how it breaksdown.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(1) Duke (15-1) (2-1) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (4) Minnesota, * (8) Louisville, * (30) VCU, * (27) Ohio St, * (31) Temple,  (94) Florida Gulf Coast, (68) Kentucky, (86) Santa Clara

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Duke finally lost a game, but the Blue Devils still have the best resume in college basketball. They are easily a number 1 seed.

(12) North Carolina State (14-2) (3-0) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (10-0)

Good Wins – * (16) Connecticut, * (49) Massachusetts, (74) Stanford, * (1) Duke

Bad Losses – None

Notes – NC State’s win over Duke was huge, now don’t have a letdown at Maryland.

(5) Miami (12-3) (3-0) Projected Seed 5

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (60) UNC Charlotte, * (20) Michigan St., * (49) Massachusetts, * (40) LaSalle, * (43) North Carolina, (84) Detroit, (90) Maryland

Bas Losses –  None

Notes – 7 top 100 wins… Please explain to me how Miami isn’t ranked again.

Bubble But In

(43) North Carolina (11-5) (1-2) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (24) UNLV, (65) Florida State

Bad Losses – (145) Texas, * (154) Virginia

Notes –  The win at Florida State keeps North Carolina in the tournament.

Bubble But Out

(65) Florida State (10-6) (2-1)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (66) St. Josephs, * (33) BYU, (66) Charlotte, (90) Maryland

Bad Losses – * (213) South Alabama, * (169) Mercer, * (190) Auburn

Notes – Everytime I’m ready to Florida State put into the NCAAs, they do something to keep themselves out. The Noles really needed that home win over North Carolina. That said the Noles have plenty of games left to work themselves back into the Big Dance.

(90) Maryland (13-3) (1-2) 

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (93) Stony Brook

Bad Losses – None

Notes – When your best win of the season is Stony Brook, you don’t belong in the NCAAs.

(113) Wake Forest (9-6) (2-1)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (91) Xavier

Bad Losses –  (104) Iona

Notes – The fact that Wake Forest can even see the bubble is pretty amazing.

(130) Virginia Tech (10-6) (1-2) 

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  * (35) Oklahoma St,  (75) Iowa

Bad Losses – *(279) Georgia Southern, (100) Boston College

Notes – Outside of the loss to Georgia Southern the resume doesn’t really look that bad. If the Hokies can get back to playing the way they did in November and early December you never know.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(100) Boston College (9-7) (1-2)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (98) Providence

Bad Losses –  (113) Wake Forest, (114) Bryant, (118) Charleston

Notes – Boston College has lost 7 times this year, but do you really want to play them right now? Miami needs to be ready for their game at BC Wednesday.

(153) Georgia Tech (10-5) (0-3)

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (72) St. Marys.

Bad Losses – (130) Virginia Tech

Notes – The Yellow Jackets play hard, but they can’t score on air.

(154) Virginia (11-5) (1-2)

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (99) Tennessee, (63) Wisconsin, * (43) North Carolina

Bad Losses – * (150) Delware, * (310) Old Dominion, * (170) Clemson, (113) Wake Forest, (123) George Mason

Notes – Look at all those RPI killing losses…

(170) Clemson (9-6) (1-2)

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – (62) UTEP

Bad Losses – (146) Purdue, * (291) Coastal Carolina

Notes – Clemson is a tough out at home, and took care of Virginia on Saturday.

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